Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 13^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

Special mention should be made of the MTGO prices this week. It appears that Supernova has set prices on RTR through to M15 at a discount relative to the rest of the market. Usually Supernova’s prices are a good proxy for market prices. They are not perfect, but they are close.

This week’s differences on the older redeemable sets show that this is not an aberration and so Goatbot’s set prices are being substituted in this week for these sets. Thus, the current price listed below for RTR through to M15 is from Goatbot. The weekly change for these sets also represents the change in Goatboat’s set prices from the last week.

Lastly, the monthly change for these sets is a hybrid of Supernova’s prices from a month ago, and Goatbot's prices from this week. The MTGO prices for DTK, FRF and KTK are still collected from Supernova. Going forward, I will continue to review which prices are most suitable for monitoring and make changes as necessary.

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

After a period of price weakness coinciding with the release of DTK, paper prices on these sets have fluctuated up and down. No clear trend has established itself, but once the MM2 previews start rolling in and the hype builds around GP Vegas/Utrecht/Chiba, prices are expected to rise. This will support higher prices on all four rotated sets.

The end of DTK release events next week will also signal the end of the usual liquidity crunch in the MTGO economy. Players will also start shifting their attention away from DTK Limited and Standard towards Modern. There’s already some evidence that available supply is dwindling on these sets, so the upcoming events in both paper and online should produce an uptick in prices on RTR, GTC and M14.

Accumulating tix should be the speculator’s main goal prior to the release of MM2. Once DTK events wind down, look for a normalization in prices and tix values as a good signal to start selling cards from these sets. As a backup plan in case prices don’t move very much or something unexpected happens, there will be another selling window prior to the release of Magic Origins.

DGM remains a very poor target from a redemption perspective, but Voice of Resurgence has found its footing at around 16 tix. Brewers are working hard at using Collected Company in the old Birthing Pod shell, but it’s not yet clear whether it will break into the top tier of Modern archetypes. If a successful deck is developed, it’s almost assured that Voice of Resurgence will be included in some capacity.

There’s just too much value out of this two-drop to ignore it. Keep an eye on this mythic rare for a breakout. A high profile finish will push it back over 20 tix in short order. Players looking for a playset would do well in buying at current prices.

Theros Block and M15

The outlook for these sets is unchanged. With rotation looming in the Fall, pricing pressure will be continuous and growing. Any speculative bets made on cards from these sets should be short-term in nature and should not be undertaken lightly. The ultimate bottom on these sets is a long way off, but the trend is irresistible.

Junk mythic rares from M15 and THS are ‘okay’ long-term bets if and only if the price dips below 0.4 tix; typically some of the less played or casual mythic rares will bottom in advance of rotation. Without any utility in Standard, and dwindling value to redeemers, it’s no surprise cards like this will be the first to bottom.

Tarkir Block

To date, the two planeswalkers from DTK have both been missing in action in Standard. The price of Sarkhan Unbroken briefly went below 5 tix this past weekend, while Narset Transcendent has gone below 10 tix. Both are currently being overshadowed by the dragonlords of this set. Keep an eye on both, and don’t be afraid to accumulate Sarkhan Unbroken if it hits 5 tix again. DTK will have 16+ more months in Standard, giving loads of time for the metagame to shift in favor of these two cards.

With FRF continuing to be opened, there’s no sign of a bottom for this set in the short term. Looking out for contrarian plays similar to the DTK planeswalkers is an acceptable strategy, but FRF has been relatively well explored in Standard compared to DTK. With the lower chances of an upside surprise, it’s best to be patient to accumulate cards from this set.

Lastly, KTK is largely unchanged as a set to target. While the price has been largely stable, the end of intensive drafting means the bulk of supply is already on the market. There will be some price fluctuations due to metagame shifts, but overall price gains are inevitable.

As for KTK boosters, they are currently stable at around 1.5 tix. The next five months will provide ample time to whittle down the available supply of boosters. Within the next six weeks, there should be a clear signal whether this speculative position will bear fruit, though I am confident it will.

Modern

Speculation and expectations around Modern are at a standstill. No new information came out during Pro Tour DTK regarding Modern Masters 2015. Even if some prices look very attractive now, a potential reprint jeopardizes most speculative picks. In two or three weeks, cards from Modern Masters 2015 should start to be spoiled so bigger speculative moves will have to wait until mid-May to begin.

The format of the MOCS 7 (running May 27 to June 24) will be Modern. Back in February the previous Modern MOCS, in combination with the Pro Tour, helped prices rise from January to February. This time around, this upcoming Modern MOCS will directly follow MM2 release. Speculators won’t have to wait long to see their speculative targets acquired around the release of MM2 (reprints and non-reprints) to see higher prices.

One more interesting tidbit that came down from WoTC this past week was the change to the paper PPTQ formats going forward. Previously, stores could choose the format that they wanted to run. The change made for the PPTQ season starting in August is for the format to be either Sealed Deck or the constructed format featured at the Pro Tour fed by the qualifiers. This means that Modern will be the constructed format for PPTQs starting in August.

For speculators, this is big news that is currently flying under the radar. Modern season is back! It’s not clear yet whether this policy will translate directly to MTGO, but it’s safe to expect a premium on all Modern staples in the second half of the summer, in paper at least.

If Modern is the only format for constructed PPTQs on MTGO, then there should be a nice premium online as well. After the Modern MOCS, the release of Magic Origins should be an excellent time to accumulate Modern staples in advance of the PPTQ season. Hat tip to Chas Andres for pointing out this change in policy and the implications for speculators in his weekly column over at Starcitygames.

After hitting a record high at 16 Tix, Snapcaster Mage seems to have started cycling down and is now under 13 Tix. This card has a bright future ahead and it is a card worth watching closely to catch him up when he hits a new floor, probably around MM2’s release.

All across Modern, staples are losing ground, including the ZEN fetchlands, Primeval Titan, Leyline of Sanctity, Noble Hierarch, Fulminator Mage and Scapeshift on its way to reach a two year low. Needless to say that in these conditions Scapeshift would be an amazing target if not reprinted in MM2, though being consistently part of the Modern metagame suggests a reprint is very likely.

Waiting for MM2, a few opportunities may nonetheless arise from sets excluded from Modern Masters 2015 reprints. Voice of Resurgence is one example. Another potentially attractive position is Past in Flames.

Vintage and Legacy

Trends of both of these formats remain mostly flat and nothing is expected to happen until the release of Tempest Remastered. The anticipated fall in price of Wasteland and City of Traitors and the potential reprint of expensive Legacy- or Vintage-playable Modern cards in Modern Masters 2015 (Infernal Tutor and Hurkyl's Recall, for instance) should help ramp up demand for these two eternal formats in the long run. The Legacy MOCS in November is the primary targeted time frame for high demand.

Pauper

Although things are still looking good in Pauper, specs may slow down for one more week until the end of DTK release events. From a financial perspective DTK brought us one interesting common. Anticipate will complete the long list of blue draw and selection spells. It may not be added into aggro blue-based decks but could be incorporated into control or combo decks to supplement Impulse.

The demand is currently higher than the supply hence a price in the 0.1-0.2 Tix range, but very soon we expect this card to be at a more respectable price for a common, probably around 0.01 Tix. Being from a 3^rd large set gives Anticipate a slim chance to retain some value beyond bulk but only after the summer.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

None.

Modern

Voice of Resurgence
Past in Flames

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

None.