Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 20^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, except for the price of DTK which is the sum of all DTK singles prices from Goatbot. All weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s prices from last week. Monthly changes are still relative to Supernova’s prices from last month before their prices started diverging from market prices.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Paper prices on these sets continue to fluctuate with no clear trend, though the TCG Low price for a complete set of RTR is flirting with triple digits and is the highest it’s been since last summer. TCG Low for GTC and M14 are not showing quite the same strength, though both remain within striking distance of a six month high. MTGO prices on these sets remain in a holding pattern and are waiting for some direction from their paper counterparts or renewed interest in Modern.

The end of DTK release events will bring some focus to Modern as players shift their attention away from Limited towards Constructed. Waiting for the next uptrend can try a speculator’s patience, but there’s nothing to suggest another leg up in price isn’t on its way. If you are holding mythic rares from RTR, GTC or M14, holding continues to be correct.

Theros Block & M15

A big move has been made recently by Mana Confluence, which is now priced around 23 tix. But for every big move up in price that a given card makes, there are other format staples such as Courser of Kruphix and Goblin Rabblemaster languishing below their recent price levels.

Coming out of DTK events, it’s natural to see a mild bounce in prices overall, but don’t let a price bump on cards from these sets dictate any speculative decisions. With MM2 and Tempest Remastered coming up, there will be lots of reasons to sell cards that are getting closer to rotation every day. The outlook for these sets is unchanged. Any speculative bets made on cards from these sets should be short-term in nature and should not be undertaken lightly.

Tarkir Block

With Standard's strong adoption of Dragonlord Ojutai and Dragonlord Silumgar, DTK saw a substantial jump in price in the last week. Many of these prices are closer to what one would expect during online prerelease events. The dust is going to have to settle on this set before any speculative bets are made.

FRF is continuing to drift down in price, with no single card priced higher than 10 tix currently. Relative to paper, FRF is the cheapest redeemable set (DTK redemption has yet to start).

For speculators, this presents an interesting question. Is the price of FRF on MTGO too low or is the price of FRF in paper too high? Well, with drafters ready and willing to keep supplying the market with cheap cards from FRF, there’s no strong reason to believe that FRF is priced too low on MTGO. It’s safe to expect this gap to narrow, but with falling prices in paper, not with rising prices on MTGO.

KTK is still at or near its bottom on MTGO, though there are some cards that are moving around in price. Meanwhile paper prices are continuing to slowly drift down. Further speculation on KTK should wait until prices stabilize in paper and clear floors emerge.

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker is definitely a card to keep an eye on, as it’s clearly fallen out of favor in Standard and this is reflected in its price reaching an all-time low of around 4 tix.

Modern

As a whole, the Modern format is still on a downward trend which started about a month ago. DTK release events, coupled with a shift of interest to the new Standard format and the looming pressure of potential reprints in MM2 have pushed several Modern staples further down this week.

Noble Hierarch for instance is now around 18 Tix, a 15-month low. Linvala, Keeper of Silence, once over 20 Tix, is now about 6 Tix and plunging to its pre-Modern-era price as if Birthing Pod had never existed. Amulet of Vigor is in the 1.5 Tix range and almost back to its pre-PT Fate Reforged level) and the MMA version of Summoner's Pact is under 1 Tix , an all-time low.

Moving into reprintable Modern positions is certainly a delicate gamble at this point. However, not all current Modern cards present the same likelihood of being reprinted.

Summoner's Pact was in MMA and it would be reasonable to think that the pact cycle is niche enough that it won’t return in MM2. After a recent strong finish at PT Fate Reforged and grumblings of a potential ban, Amulet of Vigor and the Amulet deck are still around. Three months ago this card was barely on the average player’s radar. Amulet of Vigor is clearly not a prime card to reprint in MM2.

At their current price, both Pact and Amulet may be worth the risk and carry a good upside if they don’t show up in MM2. Weighting risks and rewards, speculators ready to take calculated risks may want to consider several Modern positions such as these. At the very least, speculators should get ready a short list of Modern-relevant cards that might avoid getting reprinted--both of these cards should be on that list.

The ZEN fetchlands also seem to have found a new price floor on MTGO and have slightly rebounded in the past week. As a cycle of cards that will guarantee massive sales of any set that they are in, the ZEN fetchlands are probably not going to show up in something like a limited print run set like Modern Masters 2015. It’s not a big stretch to imagine them being included in Battle for Zendikar this fall.

However, they constitute a good short- to medium-term opportunity here. Acquiring them at current prices while they are out of favor, and just before MM2 invigorates interest in Modern, could lead to decent returns. The summer PPTQ season in August will be Modern Constructed as well, which will provide a back stop selling period, just prior to Battle for Zendikar spoilers starting up in September.

Vintage & Legacy

A Legacy Grand Prix was held this past weekend in Kyoto, Japan. Not surprisingly, Delver deck variants were the most represented decks in Day Two and 100% of the Top 8 decks contained blue spells. More interesting is the apparent renewed interest in OmniTell decks, featuring Omniscience or Sneak Attack. These were the second most represented archetype in Day Two, and two competitors piloted it into the Top 8. At the same time (but half a world away) four OmniTell decks made Top 8 at the Legacy SCG Premier IQ event, and one of them took home the top prize.

Several Japanese pros praised the power of cheating Emrakul into play via Omniscience as the Legacy format is adjusting to the banning of Treasure Cruise. Omniscience won’t be in Modern Masters 2015 but is currently sitting at its record high at around 20 Tix, making it a difficult speculative target even with these recent events highlighting Omnitell.

On the other hand, Show and Tell has fallen from a high of almost 100 Tix to a very stable 50 Tix. With Urza’s block flashback drafts held four months ago, the blue sorcery from Urza’s Saga could be an expensive but decent spec with the Legacy MOCS as the targeted selling period in November.

Besides OmniTell, eight copies of Monastery Mentor also showed up in the GP Kyoto Top 8. Along with some appearances in Vintage, the Mentor is more and more making its way into the most powerful formats. This card should really be on your radar now and should be a primary target to pick up prior to the release of Magic Origins.

Another Standard card is getting more and more essential in Legacy blue decks—Dig Through Time. From under 2 Tix at the beginning of the month to more than 3 Tix now and propelled by Standard UBx Control decks, the blue delve instant posted 17 copies in the Top 8 of GP Kyoto this past weekend. Dig Through Time is here to stay in all formats it is legal in and is very likely a sure bet now and for the year to come.

Pauper

In the wake of DTK release events several Pauper staples and Pauper-playable cards have lost value. Similarly to what we observed in other formats, prices are expected to rebound in the coming days. These prices at a depreciated level are indeed creating buying opportunities.

A good example of this is Moment's Peace. This card abruptly dropped in three weeks from 1.6 Tix to 0.3 Tix, basically at an all-time low. With a ceiling over 3 Tix, and despite not being very popular in Pauper right now, this Odyssey common constitutes a very attractive pick up.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Dig Through Time
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Modern

Misty Rainforest
Scalding Tarn
Arid Mesa
Verdant Catacombs
Marsh Flats

Pauper

Moment's Peace

Legacy

Show and Tell

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

None