Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 7^th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

Usually Supernova’s prices are a good proxy for market prices. They are not perfect, but they are close. Recently though, their prices for RTR and JOU have been too low, so I’ve put an asterisk (*) beside those set prices. The set price for RTR and JOU on Goatbots is currently 86 and 88 tix respectively.

Price declines are painting the MTGO price changes almost completely red for both the weekly and monthly numbers as we get into the DTK release event period. Deploying tix at the moment is a good move as their value is high. Hopefully speculators had completed most of their selling last month in advance of DTK events.

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

Paper prices on M14, RTR and GTC look to be resuming their uptrend after a brief pause for the release of DTK. As always, higher paper prices are a signal to expect higher prices on MTGO through redemption. Once DTK events wrap up, prices should normalize and head higher on MTGO.

A prime example of the potential on this type of speculative strategy is to look at how the price of Jace, Architect of Thought has moved in the past six months. It has nearly tripled since it’s price bottomed in the Fall after rotating out of Standard, which is not a flash-in-the-pan price spike, but steady gains that show signs of continued strength.

Longer term, the best period to sell cards from these sets is generally in the month prior to the summer release, for two reasons. First, most of the price increases for a given set will have already materialized by then, and secondly, the summer release offers some excellent speculative opportunities. Speculators should consider the end of June and early July to be a prime period to exit any longer term RTR block and M14 mythic specs.

Theros Block and M15

On the other hand, the sets of THS block and M15 are seeing prices head down in paper, meaning redemption will no longer be supporting prices on these sets. Cards from these sets should be carefully considered before purchase, and there should be a strong bias to selling any current holdings.

The downtrend will accelerate at some point and holding Standard staples while they are rapidly losing utility and value is a bad position to be in for a speculator. Any speculating on these cards should be done with a short-term perspective only, as the longer the holding period, the greater the risk.

For those with a longer-term perspective, junk mythic rares from THS and M15 can be accumulated at the right price. If mythic rares from these two sets hit 0.4 tix or lower, then the prudent speculator should buy up any available copies. Note that this recommendation does not apply to junk mythic rares from BNG or JOU. Smaller sets have less value to redeemers due to the lower number of cards, so there is less margin for error when speculating on these sets.

Tarkir Block

For those that have not already had their fill of KTK, the price bottom on this set is in. Special mention should be made of KTK boosters, which have reached a very low price level of around 1.4 tix this week. Currently, the utility of these boosters is quite low due to not being a part of the most current draft format. They are also still being awarded as prizes in Daily Events and Constructed queues. Add these two factors up and it’s no surprise that the price has collapsed.

Brave speculators should take this opportunity to sock away a few boosters for the future. Once DTK takes the place of KTK in prizes, supply of KTK will have peaked. Also, there will always be some drafters who prefer drafting with KTK over DTK, so demand will increase once the excitement around the new set winds down. This will support higher prices down the road, so take the longer-term perspective and get some KTK boosters while they are on sale.

FRF and DTK are both currently being opened in large numbers with the start of release events. Prices on these sets will be under continuous pressure for the coming months so the best longer-term opportunity for buying cards from these sets will be prior to the summer release of Magic Origins (ORI).

Modern

Similarly to the past few weeks, Modern prices remain flat or are heading slightly downward. With the exception of the cards that are guaranteed to avoid a reprint in Modern Masters 2015, (M12 onwards), investing in Modern is still quite risky as we are getting closer and closer to the release of MM2.

Dragons of Tarkir release events and the incoming Standard Pro Tour are going to attract tix and player’s attention to the Standard format. We’ll probably have to wait until this summer to see Modern prices significantly rise again.

Legacy and Vintage

Last week all of the 269 cards from the MTGO-only set Tempest Remastered were spoiled. A couple of Legacy staples missing from Vintage Masters, Wasteland and City of Traitors, didn’t dodge the reprint this time. Along with these two cards, several of the most expensive cards from Tempest block will be reprinted.

Wasteland and City of Traitors will both be printed as rares in the remixed set. Their prices will unequivocally go down and if you haven’t sold your copies yet, you should do it immediately; these two cards will be much cheaper in two months. The apparent goal of WotC here is to lower the price barrier of Legacy and Vintage. A goal that is more likely to be reached with Wasteland priced below 20 Tix, four times less than a month ago.

While this set has two very high caliber rares, the mythic pool is rather poor. Several of the Tempest Remastered mythics have been reprinted in VMA or in other sets. Eight mythics are already under 1 Tix, with Shard Phoenix and Starke of Rath having virtually no value at all. With no redemption for TRM, there is going to be no price support for unplayable mythics. Only four mythics from this set have a current value over 5 Tix.

Among the notable omissions from Tempest Remastered are Ensnaring Bridge, Reflecting Pool, Burgeoning, Scroll Rack, the Medallions, Choke and Ancient Tomb. Keep in mind that some of these might also be in Modern Masters 2015. From a speculative standpoint, and with no further reprints in the foreseeable future, Ancient Tomb, Burgeoning and Scroll Rack could represent safe, long-term bets.

Finally, with Wasteland soon to become accessible to the majority of the player base, Legacy and Vintage will see some growth in interest. Although it’s not worth acting on, Legacy and Vintage should benefit from a lower barrier to entry.

Pauper

Pauper cards are still cruising higher. The trend may pause during DTK release events but the mid-term expectations are very good. All Pauper-playable commons from Tempest block reprinted in Tempest Remastered will drop in price, among them: Diabolic Edict, Lotus Petal and Rolling Thunder.

Barely above 1 Tix in January, Exclude is now at 4 Tix, almost an all-time high. If you were holding some copies of this Invasion common, selling now is recommended. Reaching a previous record price is a sufficient reason to close a position for cyclical investments.

Targeted Buy Recommendations

Standard

The basket:
Llanowar Wastes
Battlefield Forge
Temple of Triumph
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Goblin Rabblemaster
Courser of Kruphix
Temple of Malady
Temple of Enlightenment (if you are not holding some already)

We strongly recommend buying a basket of all of these positions. All have seen lower prices over the past three to four weeks but are still among Standard’s most played cards. Some have already started to rebound and the Pro Tour this weekend might give a great boost to any of these cards.

We consider here that a basket of these Standard positions is the best insurance for overall profit. These constitute a short-term spec (2 to 4 weeks at most) as the rotation of Standard will start putting downward pressure on prices soon and MM2 will also attract players and Tix in just two months. Look for the sell recommendation on this basket of cards at some point over the next month.

Siege Rhino (if you are not holding some already)

This card is a Modern staple and has been around 2 tix for a few months now. There’s no shortage of supply, but with the end of intensive KTK drafting, price pressure will be to the upside now.

KTK Boosters

See the ‘Tarkir Block’ section above for motivation on purchasing these. If you are unsure of whether or not pursuing this strategy will be profitable, then buy 10 boosters as an experiment. Leave your name in the comments section stating that you have done so as a record. If these are less than 2 tix by September 1st, Matthew Lewis will pay 20 tix for your 10 boosters (ie 2 tix a piece).

This offer is only valid on the first 10 boosters purchased and is not valid for higher quantities. This offer only triggers if the secondary market price of KTK boosters is 2 tix or less on September 1, according to available market prices, such as the price listed at goatbots.com.

Targeted Sell Recommendations

None.