The Standard decklists from Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir will define the Standard metagame going forward. Innovations from the pros will be adopted by players across the globe.

The Pro Tour creates not a ripple effect, but a tidal wave through competitive metagames and financial markets. Today I’ll examine key metagame trends from the Pro Tour and explore how they will impact the financial landscape.

Dragon Control

Control decks were out in full force, and true to the Pro Tour’s Dragons of Tarkir moniker, it was Dragon Control decks that found the most success. They came in a variety of forms, with major variations, including finalist Shota Yasooka’s Dimir version, and the Esper variation piloted by Channel Fireball players, including Josh Utter-Leyton to a 9-1 finish. These powerful decks stand to define the metagame going forward.

Dragonlord Ojutai was $17 before the Pro Tour, and it’s now just $18, and the price is probably just right. This card is incredibly strong, and it has not yet been fully realized by the metagame.

It’s viable in more decks than just Esper Dragon Control. For example, Craig Wescoe finished in the Top 16 with his Bant Ojutai deck, and it’s a sideboard card for Jeskai Tokens. This could stand to gain a few dollars, but influx of new cards should help keep the price under control.

Dragonlord Silumgar was just $6 before the Pro Tour, but it has spiked to over $13. This appears to be a price correction, and I expect this is the new selling price going forward as it becomes more widespread in the metagame. This could continue to rise a few dollars, but on the whole it’s not as heavily played as Dragonlord Ojutai, so its price won’t reach such heights.

Icefall Regent was completely off the radar before the Pro Tour, but it served Shota Yasooka incredibly well. This Dragon helps make a Dragon control deck possible, especially a blue-black deck that doesn’t require a third color. The price went from around $5 a playset before the Pro Tour to $3 a card now.

The price was just too low, and it’s not going down. This could realistically go up towards $5 if it catches on in more decks, but right now it’s limited enough that I don’t see this hitting Thunderbreak Regent-level prices. On MTGO the price shot up from under a ticket to over 6 tickets, which seems unsustainable, so I’d sell those positions.

Crux of Fate is a clear winner from the Dragon Control deck, so it’s poised for steady gains over the next few months. It’s a bargain at $3, and it should trade at no less than $5 this summer.

Gruul

Three different green-red decks reached the Top 8, the G/R Devotion build by Ondrej Strasky, the G/R Devotion deck by Thomas Hendriks, and Jason Chung’s R/G Monsters deck.

Dragonlord Atarka featured heavily in the devotion builds, where it served as a top-end trump that went over the top of opponents. Over the week the price went from $6 to over $8, partly on the hype of Chris VanMeter’s SCG Open-winning G/R Dragons deck, but after the Pro Tour it now sits at $19, the most expensive of the Dragonlords. It’s sure to be a hot card this week, and it’s not out of the question that the card demands a price even higher than $20 in dealer cases this weekend.

This price is likely unsustainable, because the hype is sure to die down, and the price should fall to a more reasonable $15 range as more product enters circulation.

This weekend was a breakout for Surrak, the Hunt Caller, which was in two of the Top 8 decks.

Surrak, the Hunt Caller has been ticking steadily upward over the weekend online, having now exceeded the prerelease weekend price, but the paper price continues its downward trajectory. I like this card a lot under $4, and it’s only a matter of time before Abzan Aggro catches more popularity and drives the price up 50% or more. This has application in a variety of decks, and it's bound to be a player next year as well.

Abzan Aggro

Another deck to incorporate Surrak, the Hunt Caller is Abzan Aggro. It didn’t reach the spotlight of the Top 8, but Brad Nelson piloted the archetype to 9-1 finish, with some teammates not far behind. The only undefeated day one player was also on the archetype.

Abzan Aggro has been completely reinvigorated with the addition of Surrak, the Hunt Caller. The formidable ability will nearly always be turned on in Abzan Aggro, so it effectively has haste and thus hits extremely hard. This card turns the clock squarely in the favor of Abzan Aggro and puts it as one of the defining decks of the format. It has a strong matchup against U/B Control, and its proactive nature make it great in an open format.

Rakshasa Deathdealer is too cheap at a buck. There is going to be considerable demand for this card in the summer and likely into next year, and with Khans of Tarkir off the draft table and only being opened by dual hunters, the price should start steadily rising from here. A blue chip until it rotates from Standard, and an all-time casual favorite with some Modern potential.

Anafenza, the Foremost has lost 33% of it’s value, down to $5 from a peak of $7.5 in early March. This card has made a comeback in the metagame, so as a mythic it has potential to spike to upwards of $10. As it stands, it’s a prime target for growth into the summer, profits of 50% likely capturable by summer. It’s likely a strong player until it rotates from Standard.

Moving Beyond Theros

It’s now a good time to move off Theros block positions, which from here on out will start dwindling in price until rotation later this year. Cards like Stormbreath Dragon, Goblin Rabblemaster, and Mana Confluence all hold a strong price but are unlikely to see any sort of sustained growth into the future.

Standard-only staples like Elspeth, Sun's Champion, Hero's Downfall, and Polukranos, World Eater continue to put up strong performances while falling in price, as they will continue to do. Cards with staying power into Modern, like Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix are likely to fall more slowly and hold their price going forward, but they aren’t immune to this downward price pressure as players prepare for next season.

Thoughtseize is the best Theros block card to hold going forward.

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Where is the Standard metagame headed?
Are any Dragons of Tarkir cards are still under the radar after the Pro Tour?
What Theros block cards do you have in your long-term portfolio?

Cheers!
Adam