Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Two Standard Grand Prix were held this past weekend, in Toronto, Canada and São Paulo, Brazil. These events drew large crowds filled with players from all edges of the Western Hemisphere.
The wake of Grand Prix tends to have big impact on global metagames, so understanding the results of these tournaments is crucial for predicting financial trends and the metagame of future events alike.
There was also a SCG Standard Open in Portland, Oregon, which drew many eyes to coverage over the weekend, and decklists from this event are also important to the financial landscape.
The Top 16 decklists from each event are available, so there is a lot of great information available.
GP Toronto
The headline archetype of GP Toronto was Abzan Midrange, which put two copies into the Top 8 and ultimately hoisted the trophy. Champion Lucas Siow's decklist incorporates three maindeck Den Protector, which has officially brought Den Protector into its own, without Deathmist Raptor, as a value creature for midrange decks. Den Protector is a Standard staple and will be a huge factor in the metagame until it leaves the format.
Online, Den Protector rose from 6 tix on Saturday to 8.4 on Sunday, but it has since fallen to 7.9. The demand on this card is real. I expect many will sell extra copies now that the price is so high, so it's likely to stay below 8 tix. New supply should keep the price of this card stable, even as it's increasingly incorporated into archetype over the coming months.
The paper price has spiked from under $5 to over $7. The win in Toronto has spurred players to acquire their playsets, and the price has jumped accordingly. As with online, new supply should keep the price from exploding, but I expect the paper price still has room to rise, perhaps approaching $10.
Another card from Toronto that has garnered attention is Collected Company from Craig Wescoe's G/W Aggro deck. This deck is full of powerful aggressive creatures, including the Deathmist Raptor and Den Protector combo, supported by a set of Dromoka's Command.
Collected Company was also spotlighted at SCG Portland, where it played a keyrole in a Blue Devotion deck splashing the powerful instant, which finished in the Top 4.
The online price of Collected Company has grown from 2.2 tix on Saturday to around 4 tix today. This card is revealing itself to be the real deal, and it's likely to play a growing role in Standard as time passes. The price was too low, and I would expect this card will continue to grow before settling in the 5-6 tix range in the near future.
The paper price of Collected Company has ticked up from $4.1 to $4.4, and I expect it will continue to grow to $6 or more by this weekend.
Mardu Dragons reached the finals, but this doesn't tell the entire story. Ben Stark also piloted the archetype to a 12-3 finish. Given the exposure and its strong position in the metagame, this deck is the real thing and will likely be a part of the metagame going forward.
Crackling Doom is incredibly well positioned in this format, where it shines as a removal spell against nearly every archetype. Stormbreath Dragon is perhaps the single best card against the two Bant Megamorph decks that reached the Top 8, and it's also devastating against Wescoe's deck. It's also an excellent threat against Abzan Aggro and Bant Heroic.
All of the cards in this archetype are liable to increase in price, but nothing stands out in particular as a big gainer. It certainly puts Soulfire Grand Master back on the map, and in his Top 8 interview, the pilot said it was his MVP and he would play another copy.
Notable from GP Toronto was the relatively poor performances of Esper Dragons and Atarka Red. Both of these decks were reasonably popular at the Grand Prix; I personally played against two Esper decks and four four Red decks, and saw plenty of others in the field, yet neither archetype cracked the Top 8. The Top 16 holds one Red deck and two Esper Dragons deck. The metagame has adjusted, and I expect the hype around these archetypes will fade going forward.
GP São Paulo
Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa took the crown in São Paulo with Esper Dragons, a testament to his skill and experience. Particularly interesting is his inclusion of three Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver, which if imitated is likely to increase the price of this planeswalker.
The online price of Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver has grown from 6 tix to over 9 in the past two weeks, but I expect it has peaked.
The paper price has fallen steadily in this same period, from around $14 to $12, and it will continue to fall. The downward price pressure of the impending rotation this fall is real, and while increased popularity of a card may slow price descent, it cannot prevent it.
The Esper Dragons archetype did well in Brazil, putting three copies into the Top 8. Time will reveal how the archetype fares as a whole going forward. It's certain to be a player in the metagame, but it's likely to fall in popularity overall.
SCG Portland
Standard Top 32, Modern Top 32, Legacy Top 32
U/G Devotion reaching Top 4 of the SCG Standard open was a surprise to many, and it has brought renewed attention to the Blue Devotion archetype.
The finish has done big things for the Shorecrasher Elemental, which online has grown from 1 ticket to over 2.4 tix since Sunday. As a mythic, this price could skyrocket much higher if the deck grows in popularity and reaches the top tier of the metagame.
Thassa, God of the Sea was also a winner, growing from 3 tix to 4.5 tix since Sunday. The paper price remains stable just under $8, and this new hype will help it to maintain this price point into the summer.
Master of Waves, which had already grown considerably partly due to its inclusion last week as a sideboard card in Mike Flores' Dragon Control deck, has only increased modestly, from around 7% since the weekend up to 9.3 tix. The paper price has fallen to $6 from $7 in the last month, but the downward trajectory will be slowed.
The Legacy IQ featured two Miracles decks meeting in the finals, with Joe Lossett taking the crown. With the banning of Treasure Cruise, Miracles is now the best archetype in the format and will force others to adjust.
I am particularly taken by the Modern IQ, which showcased a range of innovative decklists throughout its top finishers. I recommend that everyone checks them out to get a feel.
Standing out to me most is the winning Collected Company Abzan deck that threatens to fill the creature-combo niche left behind by Birthing Pod. Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit is the headliner here, so pay attention to that card going forward.
Paul Pagatpagan's 12th-place U/W Control deck is particularly fascinating for its inclusion of Silumgar's Scorn, which combines very well with an activated Mutavault to serve as a hard counter. This deck also marks Dragonlord Ojutai's arrival in Modern.
-Adam
Excellent article. I really appreciate your in depth analysis on both the tournaments and the likely effect they’ll have on the cards you highlight.
I think Crackling Doom is the standout pickup here. I think it’s time for me to buy my copies.
also, thoughts on Rakshasa Deathdealer?
I’m a big fan of Rakshasa Deathdealer. It’s a two-color card, not a shard card, so it should be strong no matter what next year, even if there is no new quality mana fixing. It has applications in a lot of decks, and I expect that rather than be pushed out of the format by better cards, that it will take the spotlight as a premier creature of the format.
I just checked the graph, and it went from .1 tix to .5 tix since Friday…. the paper price is still flat at a dollar, and there is nothing but upside.
I advise being very careful on both Crackling Doom and the Deathdealer. They were both in the set with the fetches that was opened like wildfire which is even keeping down the price of it’s hallmark mythics, and already staple rares. See Siege Rhino for reference. Siege Rhino is mostly played as a 4 of, and he’s in Standard and Modern both very heavily played…He’s valued around $5 right now. So my concern would be that even if both of those do see an uptick in value they at max will go to $3 would be my guess.
tripling up on those 2 cards seems just fine!