Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Have you been wondering if Modern Masters 2015 is worth investing in? Well, here is some real time data to help you make your decision. I opened a case for myself and saved the results to share with the community. This process is something Iāve been doing for a while now whichĀ I picked up from Don Wiggins (@TheSundry on Twitter).
Yesterday, I wrote about Don and how actively he helps the community on Twitter. Today, I want to go through that process in a little more detail so you can look behind the curtain a little bit.
Afterwards,Ā let me know what you think about this article. Would you like to see this as a regular installment when a set comes out? Post your thoughts below. Letās get started with the first box.
Box 1
Approximate Value: $222
With this being my first box, I was definitely disappointed. Luckily in my two-mythic box, I had the support of some of the best rares in the set to back them up. When I calculated the approximate value of the box, I was pleasantly surprised to see that it was higher than expected.
On average, I would expect your foil payout to look something like this box. These foils totaled about $20. Unless you open high end foils, expect them to mirror this layout.
Box 2
Approximate Value: $391
Although this box ended up being sick, it didnāt start out that way. The first five or so packs I opened were all sweet Limited bulk rares and then the follow up was the Comet Storm. Luckily in the pack right after the worst mythic, was the best. Tarmogoyf is here to save the day! That last sentence works best if you say it like youāre referring to Superman, but do what you like.
After opening a couple more packs with decent rares, I was nearing the end of the box and then it happened. I opened the pack and was delighted to see Splinter Twin staring back at me. Hiding behind the Modern combo card was a delightful foil Kozilek, Butcher of Truth waiting to say hello. The box was enough with the Goyf, but the foil Eldrazi pushed it over the top.
Box 3
Approximate Value: $186
Iām not going to lie; I had to double check the value of this box a couple of times because I couldnāt believe it was so low. I searched through the cards from this box to try to find anything else of value, but alas, there was none. Of course I have the playable commons from this box set aside with the ones from the other boxes, but thatās mostly for personal use.
At first glance, this box didnāt seem that bad. I would have told you my first box was the worst I opened, when in fact it turned out to be this one. This process of cataloging your boxes is quite informative and I recommend it to everyone.
The real problem with this box is that there arenāt enough higher-end rares to hold up the value of the box as a whole. This is a great example of a box where the mythics and rares you open are good, but there just are not enough of them. The foils were unimpressive as well. One good foil can impact the value of your box drastically.
Box 4
Approximate Value: $201
This was looking on track to surpass my lowest box value until I arrived at the fifty-dollar foil of the box, Iona, Shield of Emeria.
With there being a foil in each pack, you have multiple chances to open something sweet. There are some uncommons that help you out as well, mainly Remand, but the other playables are nice too. Each of my boxes had at least one foil rare and a couple of them had more than that. I was surprised to see that happen in these boxes.
My initial impression of this set was that many times players will struggle to recoup the cost of their box, unless there is a Tarmogoyf present. Since I didnāt open any in my case, I have yet to see what boxes with Dark Confidant, Karn Liberated, or Vendilion Clique look like in person, but other players' boxes seem similar to the ones I opened.
I've seen some boxes with both Confidant and Clique in them. That's a good way to boost the value of your box into the right margin of victory. My boxes averaged in around the $200 mark, but if you include the $400 box I opened that raises the overall average of the case to $250 per box.
Utilizing Don's data posted under his store's Twitter account (@PMGStore), as well as some of my friends' boxes, my calculations seem to be accurate. If you open a box of this set, your expected average value of boxes should be approximately $250. As we have seen though, some of my boxes were in the $200 range, while others can rake in nearly double that! We all know that opening Modern Masters is like looking for your golden ticket, but these numbers suggest that even the worst box won't lose you very much money.
Well, that's all for me today. I hope you enjoyed my first foray into the #boxreport. Please let me know in the comments if you enjoyed this article and what else I could do to improve it. This seems like a great series to continue when a new set comes out. Is this something you would like to see? Let me know.
Until next time,
Unleash the Force!
Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com
I found this article to be very helpful and informative! Thank you.
I rarely purchase sealed product, and at the moment I am only sitting on two (2) sealed boxes of MM2015. I am quite torn between busting open the packs OR just sitting on the sealed boxes for a year or two. This article was very helpful in assessing the potential value of just opening them. It would be great to see similar articles for future sets as well!
Thanks for the feedback! I hope everyone found it as helpful as you did and I will most likely be pursuing this topic in further articles. Was there anything else you would have liked to see included in this article or any way it could be improved?
Most informative, like many (I suspect), I have been sitting on the fence wondering whether to jump into the MM2015 frenzy or sit it out and see how the market settles. Sadly my wife would never permit an $850 outlay on 4 boxes for me to gamble with so I live vicariously through the likes of people such as yourself š
I would be interested to see how you fare with these cards, will you sell the valuable cards and recoup your investment or hold onto them in the knowledge they may fluctuate in future? I’m a collector as opposed to a trader so I am always interested in seeing how you financiers go about your business, the decisions you make based on the information you have/what the competitive landscape is looking like/how standard and modern are changing etc.
Any follow up article would be of interest to me, not sure I can vouch for the rest of the community however.
P.S, you have a typo in the article, misspelling Confidant for Confidant, sorry to be a pedant!
“P.S, you have a typo in the article, misspelling Confidant for Confidant, sorry to be a pedant!” Confidant for Confidant…small mistake in your correction I believe.
Fixed. Thank you.
thanks for the correction, it’s why I always apologise upfront (Im British so we spell apologise with an S not a Z) š
Awesome article Mike, it’s good to have someone do something like this and present it for us. I think it was good to go with a case opening, since it sort of plays in line with the more “average” EV rather than just one spike box.
I find it interesting how much easier it is to have a generally better value of a box when a person hits Tarmogoyf as opposed to when you don’t. I guess that makes sense with it being the most valuable card in the set though, right? š
I think in the end sitting on these boxes probably won’t yield as great results as people may be hoping for. MM1 just had a bit better overall value, and it was distributed better through the rares/uncommons.
That Comet Storm tho!
Yes, I think the boxes won’t yield as high results in the long term. The draft format is much better than I originally anticipated though and that does play a huge role the long term value of boxes. In my opinion, the most valuable sealed boxes these days are the ones that have both valuable cards and sweet draft formats. That’s why MMA1 boxes retain their value.
decided to open my box and boy was that a bad choice. got like one money rare which was daybreak. got tezzeret and primeval. did get kozilek in The end but i shit you not i think my box value was about 100$. got one remand and one lightning Bolt + electrolyse. worst luck ever lol
I would love to see the full breakdown if you have time. Just take your pile of cards worth $5+ and look up the tcg mid of each. I am betting you it’s closer to $200. You might surprise yourself.
25$ in commons and uncommons 1x Primeval titan 15$ tezzeret 15$ etched champion 4$ battlegrace angel 2$(yeah im that desperate to get some value lol) pupeteer clique 5$ Daybreak coronet 25$ banefire 2,5$ blinkmoth nexus 11$ kozilek 45$(really dont think i get that much)
25+15+15+4+2+5+25+2,5+11+45= 149$, but thinking it will get like 30$ for kozilek so 135$ or so id say. but hey even if i do get 45$, 149$ is a pretty bad result no :)?
Never mind i think i need to redo that one cus i didnt look at different versions: 25$ commons, primval 13$ tezzeret 10$, etched champion 3,49 , battlegrace 1$ , puppeteer 3$ , daybreak 15$ , banefire 1$ , blinkmoth nexus 8$, kozilek 33$ = 112. =)=)
oh yeah and a foil mirror entity, i guess that adds like 8$. so 120$ total š
Wow. Unless you missed something, that’s definitely the worst box I’ve seen by a large margin. That sucks man. No other reasonable foils?
Nope all bulk 1-2$ rares that i didnt mention. š no foils except the “bulk rare” foil
My sympathies go out to you.
Dont worry i can afford it.
Try to keep in mind that these average values will change drastically after this weekend. At least that is the prediction I’ve seen the most…
TLDR; all of these cards are worth much less a week from now, even tarmogoyf. The price you already paid on these boxes won’t though.
If be surprised if the prices drop much more than they already did. You’re right though, they will probably still go down a little more since all the dealers get a limited reorder.
Yeah, I guess using words like “drastic” is too bold. I don’t really know what the market will do, only what I’ve read. Maybe the price drop that’s already occurred is correct with just a bit of wiggle room. I’m probably letting my emotional attachment to owning ‘goyfs and Bobs get in the way of reason when I buy into hype like this:
goyf: $100
bob: ~$30
hierarch: ~$20
Clique: ~$30
I can always hope though. I’ll be pretty sad if the prices rebound too soon after the GP’s.
I’d be very surprised if prices drop that low. If so, lots of cards will be great buys though. We’ll see what happens.