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Welcome back, readers! I realize this series has missed an article, but I wanted to get my last one out before all the MM2015 spoilers started to hit so people could look at unloading cards before they started dropping in value. That being said, I know a lot of people like this series so I'm happy to provide another installment.
Penny Stocks
1. Ragnar (+342.2%) - This Legends rare can serve as an okay tiny leader in the bant colors, although there are two stronger ones available in the same colors. This movement really looks like a buyout (with a constant price for a long time and a sudden jump in a two-day time span) and as of typing this there are only 16 copies remaining on TCG Player, all at the "new" price.
This is not a card I'd invest in. It had little to no demand for years and then all of a sudden someone thinks it's too cheap, buys out all the copies they can and tries to set a new price. The problem is this isn't real demand and people can set the card at the current price all they want, but that doesn't mean it'll stick. If you have them, sell/trade them now as I expect we'll see a nice steady decline (though price memory will likely keep it above its previous $5-$6 price tag).
2. Terminate (Player Rewards) (+109.9%) - This jump is also indicative of a buyout (with only about five copies currently on TCG Player as of this writing), but Terminate has proven itself to be a solid Modern staple and its time out of the limelight is primarily due to the fact that the red-black color combination hasn't seen a lot of love since Deathrite Shaman and Bloodbraid Elf got axed and Jund took a back seat to Junk.
It's still the cheapest (CMC-wise) kill spell in Modern with no caveats (Lightning Bolt can't kill 4 toughness, Go for the Throat can't hit anything in Affinity, Doom Blade can't kill any black creatures). This one likely has had a new price point set, though from a personal perspective, I think the Player Rewards art is horrendous.
3. Urza's Tower (Mountains - Antiquities) (+37.2%) - Several times in this series we've seen an older Antiquities Urzatron land experience a significant gain in a single week. The implication is that the new price will likely hold and that any ones that haven't jumped yet will likely have their day to shine. The extreme age of the Antiquities set, coupled with a much smaller print run (compared to modern ones), means that modern Tron players are more than happy to "pimp" out their decks with the originals. I honestly imagine that if Tron decks ever regain a foothold in the tier 1 status of Modern, we can expect another jump on these Antiquities versions.
4. Hunted Horror (+35.5%) - To be honest, I don't really understand this jump. Travis Woo's latest "Bees" deck does run Forbidden Orchard and it might be that Hunted Horror is a solid creature that works in the deck or maybe someone is pushing for the modern Torpor Orb deck. I don't see a lot of upside in holding on to these, so if you have them and someone is interested in them I'd move them.
5. Maga, Traitor to Mortals (+20.6%) - Another powerful Tiny Leader, Maga has always been a solid EDH general for "big mana" mono-black decks and thanks to Cabal Coffers/Magus of the Coffers he's always been a good "one-shot" general. He's a legal general in the Tiny Leaders format, which while it seems to be waning at the moment still carries some weight. It's easy to see that "X" spells in the format can be some of the most powerful cards, thanks to the fact that all the other cards are only as powerful as WoTC wanted to push them at 0, 1, 2 or 3 mana.
6. Command Tower (Commander 2013) (+17.3%) - This EDH staple didn't make the cut in the Commander 2014 product (thanks to it being mono-colored). This means that as these get picked up and placed into decks they are leaving circulation (likely for a long time) so the price is naturally going to rise. It also helps that while the MTG playerbase growth rate has slowed compared to a few years ago, it is still going up and this is one of those Commander staples (like Sol Ring) that can go into just about any deck. In terms of mana-fixing in EDH, there really isn't a better land you can play.
7. Summer Bloom (Visions) (+11.7%) - The announcement of Primeval Titan being reprinted in MM2015 has likely driven some more interest into the Titan Bloom deck. This is the type of card that casual players tend to love and this is a very powerful ability on a low CMC card. It's also not the type of card you'd expect WoTC to throw into MM2015, simply because it feels really out of place and isn't synergistic with a whole lot else.
8. Den Protector (+11.6%) - Den Protector/Deathmist Raptor strategies seem to be very popular in Standard right now. And running Den Protector on its own to recur powerful cards is just as acceptable. A lot of Standard players weren't playing the last time we had Eternal Witness in Standard, so it's no surprise that this powerhouse took a bit of time to really catch on. While not as good as Eternal Witness (as a whole), the fact that you can only run one Witness in EDH means that any card similar enough to it can easily find a home.
9. Treefolk Harbinger (+10.8%) - This is an interesting move simply because this card tends to reside in Doran decks (whether they be EDH, casual, or even the Modern variants). With the printing of Assault Formation, these Doran decks now get another four copies of the ability they really need to function (and it's even attached to a plain enchantment, so it can't be pathed). This guy also gets any Forest (including Temple Garden and Overgrown Tomb) so it's a decent mana fixer with wall potential.
10. Insurrection (Commander) (+10.0%) - This is a Commander all-star and one that goes in just about any EDH deck that's more than just a splash of red--it's often 8 mana, I win the game. I always enjoy playing with this card, and with only three printings from smaller/older sets (Onslaught, Planechase, and Commander), the number in supply is likely not that high.
Blue Chip Stocks
1. Dark Confidant (-9.58%) - It seems like every two weeks I talk about how the once mighty card draw engine continues to fall from grace and this week is no exception. The worst part is, he was only spoiled for MM2015 release 5/4/15, so he hasn't even really suffered the true "reprint" drop yet. Even if WoTC keeps him at the rare spot, the fact that he's seeing little to no play in any eternal formats anymore implies that he'll continue to drop.
In fact, if we just base it on demand, he should already be much lower; but I imagine the price memory on him is still pretty high and people who picked him up at $70+ won't be wanting to trade him off if he hits $45-50 very easily. He is making a comeback in Legacy Abzan-Blade (Dark Maverick to the purist), so his decline may slow down a bit even with a reprinting.
2. Bayou (-4.13%) - We just aren't seeing a ton of Elves in Legacy anymore (with only one copy making it into an SCG Top 8 in the month of April). Interestingly enough we are (as of recently) starting to see a resurgence in this new version of Maverick, which does run a Bayou, so we might see a reversal of this trend in the near future (at least I hope so, given how much I loved playing Maverick back in the day).
3. Tarmogoyf (-3.01%) - As expected, the closer we get to the release of MM2015, even the mighty Tarmogoyf starts to dip as players realize that more will soon be in the supply. I don't expect him to take a huge hit with MM2015 overall. Last time he got bumped upwards because a few dealers at GP Vegas were buying them at their current retail price, whereas it will be much more difficult to do that again given how much more expensive he is now (almost double).
4. Tropical Island (-2.6%) - Despite its power level, the Infect deck seems to be a bit on the decline recently. This might be due to the return of Maverick, which plays plenty of creatures to chump block with and then go over the top via card advantage provided by Sword of Fire and Ice and Dark Confidant.
5. Volcanic Island (-2.44%) - It looks like Volcanic won't surpass Underground Sea this week (though it got really close during the Treasure Cruise/Young Pyromancer days of Legacy). Despite showing up in most Miracles builds and in Jeskai Blade (and an interesting Grixis Control deck in Portland) it's on the decline.
6. Tundra (-2.32%) - Boy, this is an abysmal week for Legacy staples, as everything seems to be trending downward. Despite UWr Miracles taking both first and second place at the SCG event in Portland, it seems that enough players aren't willing to pony up $205 for what was once the second most expensive dual land (by quite a bit).
7. Show and Tell (+1.81%) - Finally, a positive increase this week (well at least for those who are trying to trade/sell Show and Tells, rather than those of us trying to play fair Magic). Show and Tell has proven itself a tier 1 deck ever since the printing of Griselbrand gave it a nice jab to go with the wicked cross that is Emrakul. I expect this deck to start seeing more play (especially with a rise in Maverick style decks, as the rise of Show and Tell was what pushed Maverick into the back seat). Hopefully we'll see more Containment Priests in sideboards to combat the return of this menace.
8. Taiga (-2.24%) - And we're back to negatives after our brief stint in the sunlight. Taiga is very unfortunately positioned in the Legacy metagame as it doesn't tap for blue mana and isn't played in any decks that do (even RUG Delver doesn't bother running it anymore).
9. Wasteland (-1.77%) - The drop in Wasteland is more likely due to the announcement of yet another judge foil printing (as opposed to a reduction in actual play). We're actually seeing Wastelands pop up more in decklists. Even U/G infect tends to run one to combat Glacial Chasm (which it just flat out can't beat), as well as a good answer to opposing Inkmoth Nexus.
10. Jace, the Mind Sculptor (-1.16%) - Jace is now taking a back seat in many of the Miracle builds because it's a slower way to win the game, and despite the deck often locking the opponent out with Counter-Top, it's often just a blue card to pitch to FoW in some matchups (like Infect). He gets even worse when the metagame is full of cheap taxing counterspells, as it's difficult to resolve a four-drop against decks with a ton of super cheap counter magic.
My guess on Hunted Horror is Tiny Leaders and/or SB play in Modern 8 Rack.
That’s also plausible…like I said, I really don’t get that one…I wasn’t sure if some weird brew had hit MTGO recently (that I’d missed).
I would guess the uptick in Show and Tell isn’t due to a resurgence of Sneak and Show (against which Containment Priest is strong) but rather the convergence upon a streamlined and sleek OmniTell list that is surging to the forefront as the premier Show and Tell deck. CP of course does next to nothing against this deck because it ends up actually casting Emrakul albeit without paying its mana cost.
You’re likely correct on that front, though my biggest issue with the Omni-tell decks is that instead of having 8 ways to “cheat in” their win condition (like Sneak and Show) they are instead limited to 4 (Show and Tell), which I feel is a bit risky, though I do like the inclusion of Boseiju, Who Shelter’s All
Boseiju is great and they have a lot more cantrips plus 4x Dig to make it very consistent. They also have a nice, stable manabase and loads more countermagic. They get less clunky draws with multiple fatties and no cheat card.
It definitely loses speed and the “oops, I win” T1 factor of Sneak and Show but it can answer most things.
True…but if Surgical Extraction ever regains a foothold in the format…having only one way to cheat in your win condition is NOT where I want to be…