Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of May 11^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from last week. All monthly changes are also relative to Goatbot’s prices, except for DTK which is relative to the mid-April set price.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Prices for these sets in the MTGO economy were flat in the past week while TCG Low prices for these sets were flat to negative. On the other hand, TCG Mid prices for these sets in the past week were all flat to positive. Overall, the trend in paper should be considered flat to positive, and the more volatile TCG Low prices should be discounted in light of the rising TCG mid prices over the past month. With the upcoming release of MM2, it will be interesting to see if the price gains keep extending themselves.

MTGO speculators have the benefit of the just announced Modern Festival to drive demand for Modern-playable cards. Voice of Resurgence, a past recommendation from DGM, has been heading higher from its recent low of around 16 tix. This card, and all other cards from these sets, should be considered a good hold over the coming months.

Theros Block & M15

Although there is room for individual cards and set prices to move up, paper prices continue to move down in a relentless fashion. Each of these sets in paper has basically been declining in price, week over week, for nine straight weeks. Only short-term speculations should be considered, and signs of price weakness should not be ignored. The time to speculate on THS block and M15 is largely over, and only mythic rares at a discount to their long-term value should be considered for purchase.

An interesting example from M15 would be Jace, the Living Guildpact. This card has shown essentially zero potential in Standard, and its price has steadily declined since the Fall. It’s unlikely that that will change at this point as usually any card that will be played in Standard has at least shown some small uptake at some point by deck builders. This means that this card should be on our radar as a bulk mythic rare target, with value due to redemption.

Being a planeswalker means that there is a small price premium on this card relative to a true junk mythic rare. Gideon, Champion of Justice from GTC has the honour of being the cheapest redeemable planeswalker ever when it reached a price of around 0.8 tix last year. If Jace, the Living Guildpact gets down a similar level, it should be considered a strong buy at that price.

Tarkir Block

DTK is still trying to find its equilibrium price level in both paper and on MTGO and prices are up across the board in the past week. Redeemers are probably working at full tilt to get sets out of the digital economy right now, so lower prices on MTGO are not expected until prices come down further in paper.

This process might not complete in time for the Magic Origins, the next redeemable release, so it will be worth monitoring in the meantime for a price bottom. As a third set with a high power level and an apparent low level of supply, DTK is setting up to have some of the most expensive cards after rotation in the Fall.

There is probably enough supply of FRF out there at the moment, and it appears that around 45 tix is the equilibrium price level on MTGO. Prices on individual cards should vary though, as value accrues to mythic rares at the expense of regular rares. Like DTK, keep an eye on this set, and pick up playable mythic rares that are priced at a discount when possible.

KTK continues to show price strength, although it’s uneven and generally favors the mythic rares. As an example, Sorin, Solemn Visitor has crept back over the 10 tix mark while the fetch lands are now generally available at under 5 tix. The time to blindly be buying this set is over, and only select cards should be considered for speculative purposes.

Modern

The full spoiler list of Modern Masters 2015 was released last Friday, which was no small news for speculators. We have posted two special reports last week on potential great targets for mythics, rares, uncommons and commons not reprinted in MM2. The market has reacted quickly and several dozens of cards have already seen significant prices increases.

These initial big jumps are certainly very satisfactory but this is not the conclusion of this price activity. For many cards, additional price increases are expected. As we are heading toward the release of MM2 at the end of this month, a Modern MOCS in June, the Magic Online Modern Festival in July (see below) and finally a Modern PPTQ season in August, Modern prices have plenty of room to grow from here.

Several cards have also already re-reached levels close to or above their previous record high. Inkmoth Nexus, for instance, has spiked to over 15 Tix, an all-time high. After almost tripling in less than two weeks, selling now would be a good move as frantic purchases by players and speculators may have overpriced this one.

Serum Visions is seeing a similar pattern at almost 8 Tix, also a record high. If these prices are sustainable in the long run, they may deflate a little bit in the short term as speculators cash in.

On other hand, other cards still have room to grow even after a spectacular rise this weekend. Scapeshift doubled over the weekend. Nonetheless, at 17 Tix the green sorcery is still quite far off of its record high of 39 Tix. Although Threads of Disloyalty has not been intensively played this past year, this card is currently priced at about 10 Tix, one third of its highest price.

These two cards and others such as Lotus Cobra, Ajani, Vengeant, Linvala, Keeper of Silence and Thrun, the Last Troll are still significantly discounted compared to their top prices. They are not currently favored by the Modern metagame but appear to be safe from reprint for the next two years. With low reprint risk at this point, they are patiently waiting to jump up in price when their time comes again in the Modern metagame.

Now that the uncertainty of being reprinted or not has disappeared, several cards are entering uncharted territory in terms of price. Boosted by the recent success of Collected Company, Nettle Sentinel and Heritage Druid have surged to an unprecedented 4 Tix and 6 Tix, respectively. Azusa, Lost but Seeking might cross the 20 Tix bar soon and a bunch of Modern lands, including Horizon Canopy, Grove of the Burnwillows, the cycle of WWK man lands and the filter lands, may soon beat their previous all-time highs.

Another unexpected big news for Modern specs was the announcement on Monday of the Magic Online Modern Festival. This special Modern event on MTGO is likely to attract a good share of the player base during the last week of June and the first week of July. More Modern to play equals more Modern demand equals expected higher prices across the board. The prelims for the Festival finals will be Modern Constructed, and this is already stoking demand for Modern cards on MTGO.

The overall recommendation now is to diversify your Modern portfolio by holding as many positions that are safe from MM2 reprint as possible. The bull market in Modern is just getting started, so hold your positions until cards start spiking during one of the many major events held between May and August. At minimum though, the Modern Festival and its preliminary events should be the earliest to consider selling any current positions.

Vintage & Legacy

Tempest Remastered is here and Tempest block prices have significantly declined. However the price drop for Wasteland was short and quick. From the mid 20s on Friday, Wasteland was up on Monday and is now above 40 Tix. As probably one of the most wanted cards from both speculators and players, this card’s short-term price was barely affected by weekend drafts, although it is much lower than it was prior to the announcement of TPR. With a general lack of valuable cards, TPR events has not yet attracted enough players to seriously dent the price of Wasteland.

Given how things are unfolding after a week of TPR drafts, Wasteland is likely to reach 50 Tix or more, much sooner than people had thought. For speculative or play purposes, acquiring Wasteland now is the best option.

Nevertheless, other Tempest block most wanted and most expensive cards such as City of Traitors, Mox Diamond and Intuition have maintained their lower prices seen on the first weekend of TPR drafting. As the demand is not as strong for these cards as compared to Wasteland, prices are more likely to sustain or to slowly decrease further as TPR drafts keep firing.

Wanted commons and uncommons such as Lotus Petal, Rolling Thunder and Diabolic Edict have lost a big chunk of value. The last two being pretty much at their absolute bottom in the 0.01-0.02 Tix range. They might even lose more as packs keep being opened and supply floods the market. Lotus Petal is unlikely to reach such bulk prices due to it being an uncommon and a Legacy staple, but its price may come down further before the end of Tempest Remastered events.

From a relatively flat trend since February, the Power 9 are clearly losing ground since the release of Dragons of Tarkir. Black Lotus is now only few Tix away from the symbolic level of 100 Tix, its all-time low. On the other hand, the vast majority of the other VMA cards including the dual lands, Jace, Force of Will, Dack Fayden, Flusterstorm, Lion's Eye Diamond and Mana Drain remain mostly flat.

Pauper

After the general price decline observed for Pauper staples over the past two to three weeks, and following the DTK release events, several cards have finally regained some strength. Mental Note, Moment's Peace, Sunscape Familiar, Cuombajj Witches, Standard Bearer, Prismatic Strands and Innocent Blood have clearly rebounded and are now on an upward trend.

If the Pauper format keeps attracting a certain critical mass of players, it is anticipated to show cyclical variations of prices. If this is any proof of this concept, the metagame was dominated by U/x decks for the past several months. According to the Mtggoldfish Pauper Metagame stats, Mono-Black Devotion is the most represented deck at the moment, and by a good margin with 17.5% of the field.

In addition to Delver decks and Familiar decks, Stompy, Affinity, White Tokens and Goblins are among the top eight most represented archetypes. Keeping a close eye on these metagame changes are certainly a great help for speculators eager to anticipate prices changes and maximize their profit.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Modern

Linvala, Keeper of Silence

Linvala was severely devalued with the ban of Birthing Pod. From 30 Tix this angel has fallen to 6 Tix and seems to have stabilized recently. This card is clearly not a hot pick but the upside is huge now that Linvala is, most likely, cleared for not being reprinted in the next two years.

In addition, its 30 Tix price tag was reached while only being a one- or two-of in decklists, suggesting that not much would be needed to raise its price again. This is a long-term pick.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

None