Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of May 19^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from last week. All monthly changes are also relative to Goatbot’s prices, except for DTK which is relative to the mid-April set price.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

The big move this week in these sets was the jump in the price of Voice of Resurgence, which has dragged the set price of DGM up by almost 30%. This particular trend should continue over the coming weeks as it does not appear that the market is close to equilibrium yet. Only when more ‘for sale’ copies of this card are visible will the trend level off.

If you are holding copies of this card, it appears to be headed to around 30 tix in the near term. As always, the link between the digital and paper versions of DGM is extremely tenuous, so no consideration is necessary for cards beyond this Modern-playable mythic rare.

Elsewhere in Return to Ravnica block, prices are largely stable for RTR and GTC and both sets are now priced at new, post-rotation highs for both TCG Low and TCG Mid. There’s no change on the speculative potential of any cards from these sets from a redemption perspective. Any rapid price increases in a given card should be considered a good selling opportunity, and the interest in Modern over the coming months should provide ample support for prices more broadly.

M14 is slightly off its post-rotation highs but has a similar outlook. The bulk of the price moves on cards from these sets have come and gone. There might be some minor flow of value between individual cards, and there could be a metagame related price spike, but at this point, the die has been cast.

Speculators should be looking to exit any positions in these cards over the summer, particularly in advance of the release of Magic Origins. Speculating on core sets on MTGO has been consistently profitable over the years, and so speculators should be getting liquid in advance of the release of the last core set.

Theros Block & M15

Although there is room for individual cards and set prices to move up, paper prices continue to move down as a whole. Each of these sets in paper has basically been declining in price, week over week, for over two months now. Only short-term speculations should be considered, and signs of price weakness should not be ignored.

The time to speculate on THS block and M15 is over, and only mythic rares at a discount to their long-term value should be considered for purchase.

On that note, three mythic rares from THS block are currently priced below 0.4 tix at Goatbots. Hythonia the Cruel, Medomai the Ageless and Underworld Cerberus are all priced below a level which is considered extremely low risk for long-term speculators. The link to paper prices through redemption will support prices of mythic rares down the road, and these three cards have an excellent chance of seeing prices of 1 tix or more.

If you are new to speculating on MTGO or are trying to understand some of the long-term price trends, putting a few of these cards away for next year should be a good, practical lesson. Patient speculators will reap the benefits of having a long-term perspective on cards like these.

Tarkir Block

It’s no surprise but the marked downward move this week for paper DTK sets coincides with the opening of redemption. At the same time that redemption supports a set’s price on MTGO, it erodes the price of the paper version. The gap between paper and MTGO will narrow as this process unfolds, but for speculators, there is no real action to take in response. Merely observing the impact of redemption is enough to trust that an unmeasurable process has an important effect on the MTGO economy.

The time to be accumulating cards from this set will be in and around the release of ORI in July; this will be the approximate peak of supply from drafters and broadly the best time to be acquiring cards from DTK.

FRF has broken down from 45 tix to sit at 42 tix this week, and this is a signal to expect further price declines over the coming weeks. With paper prices continuing to fall, support from redemption has evaporated and speculators should refrain from targeting this set until prices have stabilized in both paper and on MTGO. Similar to DTK, the release of Magic Origins will be a good time to pick up cards from this set.

KTK is up again this week with a 5% increase to 77 tix for a complete set. In the near term, changes in the Standard metagame will dominate price changes, but the overall trend is favorable for speculators who accumulated positions in this set in past weeks.

Going forward, there will be periods of price weakness during set release events for MM2 and ORI. If you are looking to fill out your playsets or think you should expand a speculative position, those would be the times to look for good prices on cards from this set.

Modern

It’s now one and a half weeks since the full list of Modern Masters 2015 was unveiled and many Modern prices are still rising.

Of note, a little glitch is affecting some of the price indices at Mtggoldfish. The foil value of several cards is taken into account instead of the regular version to calculate the Modern Total Format Price Index, for instance. With some of these foil cards being valued less than their regular counterparts an artificial drop of 25% of this index has appeared when in fact prices are actually on the rise.

In the wake of this general price increase, the prices of several Modern staples that were not reprinted in MM2 are stabilizing this week. Inkmoth Nexus, Amulet of Vigor, Melira, Sylvok Outcast, Serum Visions and Path to Exile have each established new price records. Outside of the cards appearing in MM2, prices are expected to continue rising as we get closer to the release of that set and all of the Modern events later this summer.

The Modern part of this past week’s Magic Online Championship gave us a strong sense of what to expect next with this format: just about everything. No less than 12 different decks were played, out of 16 players in total. Burn is still a major contender and Collected Company decks made a big splash in the first high profile Modern event since the release of DTK.

Three players brought two different builds of Company decks, Elves and “Pod-less” Melira, and all had a full playset of Collected Company. Key cards of these decks such as Heritage Druid, Fauna Shaman, Nettle Sentinel, Eternal Witness, Kitchen Finks and Ezuri, Renegade Leader have now seen their prices rise totally off the charts. After such a strong showing and prices going crazy, selling into this hype may very well be the best move with these cards.

The Top 16 at this past weekend’s SCG Modern Premier IQ included a Restore Balance deck, a surprising Slivers Deck (running Collected Company), and three Jund lists, marking a return of Dark Confidant and the color red in the Modern GBx midrange builds. Olivia Voldaren (already on a steady rise for the past three months), Blackcleave Cliffs and Raging Ravine will be strong gainers if Jund’s return to the Modern metagame persists.

Legacy & Vintage

Prices on cards from Tempest Remastered are stabilizing or slightly decreasing at the moment with the exception of Wasteland.

This land has been on a steady rise since the release of the set and the upward trend only seems to have slowed down this past weekend. By Sunday, Goatbots had up to four playsets of Wasteland in stock at around 40 Tix per land. By Tuesday, all these copies were gone with a price now in the 45 Tix range.

If waiting for cheaper prices is likely to be the best strategy for TPR cards in general, the price of Wasteland definitely didn’t act according to expectations. Two weeks into TPR release events and the price of Wasteland is merely half of its average price of the past two years. Expect that gap between the long-term average price and the current price to be filled sooner rather than later, with a price tag expected to rise to 100 Tix again.

Pauper

Pauper prices, for the most part, are again this week continuing the upward trend initiated several weeks ago. According to the Mtggoldfish Pauper metagame stats, Affinity is the second most played deck in the current environment. With the exception of expensive sideboard cards such as Pyroblast, Hydroblast and Gorilla Shaman, the deck costs around 10 Tix.

Affinity lists are very similar and the only valuable cards in here are the artifact lands. Ancient Den, Seat of the Synod and Great Furnace all show signs of cyclical price fluctuations, oscillating between 0.1 and 1 Tix. As the metagame changes, speculators interested in Pauper may want to keep a close look at these cards for potentially decent returns in this corner of the market.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

None

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Fauna Shaman

Thanks to the hype triggered by the Collected Company decks, Fauna Shaman’s price has surged from about 1 Tix to more than 4 Tix now. Elves and Melira Company decks are the hot decks of the moment and we believe this may not last as the Modern metagame adapts to these new decks. With strong gains in a short period of time and an uncertain future, we recommend selling now.