Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of May 25^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from last week. All monthly changes are also relative to Goatbot’s prices, except for DTK which is relative to the mid-April set price. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Voice of Resurgence has continued to drag up the set price of DGM, with the mythic two-drop hitting 30 tix this week. That price will not be the absolute peak, but it is about double what it was a month ago when this card was originally recommended as a buy at 16 tix.

Further gains on this card are not certain so selling now in advance of MM2 release events will lock in profits. Release events are typically a period of high demand for tix, which puts a strain on prices and makes it more difficult to sell any card at the best price.

RTR and GTC are both up smartly this past week. This change is atypical for a rotated set, and tied to the rise in price of the shocklands. Normally mythic rares on rotated sets tend to accrue value over time through the redemption mechanism, but in this case the recent interest in Modern Constructed is pushing up the price of all sorts of Modern staples, including the shocklands.

What is good for the Modern speculator is bad for the junk mythic rare speculator. With shocklands heading higher, the value in junk mythic rares are heading lower. Higher set prices on MTGO reduces the price differential between MTGO and paper, lowering demand from redeemers. This shift means the outlook for junk mythic rares from these sets is negative as long as interest in Modern keeps the price of shocklands up; in the case of RTR, add Abrupt Decay to the list of valuable rares.

With a strong outlook for Modern continuing well into the summer, only a jump in paper prices will revitalize the short-term outlook for junk mythic rares from GTC and RTR. On the other hand, Modern-playable cards such as Sphinx's Revelation will continue to benefit from the increased interest in the format triggered by the release of MM2 and the announcement of the Modern Festival.

While M14 doesn’t have a cycle of shocklands, it does have two expensive rares in Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze that are currently soaking up value. Thus, the thesis is essentially the same for M14 as it is for GTC and RTR. The outlook for junk mythic rares from this set is negative while interest in Modern is high.

Theros Block & M15

These four sets all shed value this week, with prices dropping between 3% and 7%. Paper prices are also continuing their long and slow march lower in advance of Standard rotation.

The three mythic rares from THS mentioned last week are still currently priced at around 0.4 tix on Goatbot. Hythonia the Cruel, Medomai the Ageless and Underworld Cerberus are at a price level which is considered extremely low risk for long-term speculators. The link to paper prices through redemption will support prices of mythic rares down the road, and these three cards have an excellent chance of seeing future prices of 1 tix.

Khans Block

Similar to THS block, the three sets of Khans block saw broad price declines this past week. As the two sets currently being drafted, DTK and FRF continue to plumb lower depths. In contrast, KTK is still net positive month over month.

MM2 release events will drain liquidity from the MTGO market, so it’s safe to expect lower prices on all of these sets over the next two weeks. On top of the liquidity crunch, paper prices are also falling week over week so there is no support coming from redemption at the moment.

The bottom is not yet in on FRF and DTK, but it’s coming soon so get your tix ready to pick up cards from these two sets. If you missed out on a buying KTK while it was being drafted, the next two weeks will provide a good opportunity to stock up on any cards that your portfolio is missing.

Modern

Modern Masters 2015 hits MTGO this Thursday. After some unexpected price gains over the past two weeks for a few cards reprinted in MM2 (see the prices of Splinter Twin and Spellskite, for example) all cards in the set will see substantial price drops.

The bulk of the price drop is expected to occur within the first two weeks. Based on the behavior of MMA prices when that set was released, prices will rebound as early as mid-June for rare and mythic rare Modern staples and later this summer for Modern-playable uncommons and the rest of the rares and mythics that are less in demand.

The release of MM2 is a great opportunity for players and speculators to acquire Modern cards at very attractive prices. Reprinted Modern staples from older sets will see a substantial price drop. Fulminator Mage was priced at up to 40 Tix in the past and is currently at about 20 tix. Look for it to significantly drop over the course of MM2 release events.

When considering cards to speculate on, all cards that have been in Modern decklists on a regular basis for the past two years is the starting point. Top targets to keep a close eye on are those played as a four-of and in Tier 1 Modern decks or played across several different archetypes. These include Dark Confidant, Vendilion Clique, Fulminator Mage, Remand, Dismember, Mox Opal, Primeval Titan, Leyline of Sanctity, Splinter Twin, Noble Hierarch and Spellskite.

This past weekend the SCG Modern Premier IQ saw a Temur Delver deck take the trophy home. Interestingly enough, the winning deck included a playset of Hooting Mandrills and two copies of Curiosity. A playset of Disrupting Shoal was also in the brew and instantly caused a spike of this card from 4.5 to 6.5 Tix. This also provides a boost to Misty Rainforest.

This week again, Jund showed strong signs of a comeback with four decks among the Top 16 finishers at the SCG Modern event. With only one Abzan-based build, a return to the Jund configurations of BGx decks as seen before the Delver Cruise era is more and more obvious.

As a consequence, Blackcleave Cliffs and Olivia Voldaren are both over 4 Tix now and Dark Confidant definitely looks like a great target in MM2. The release of MM2 will probably be the final blow to a price already in decline over the past six months.

Finally, the Modern Elves deck may not have been a flash in the pan but the hype around the prices was certainly unsustainable. Heritage Druid and Nettle Sentinel have lost about 50% of their value compared to a week ago. It should be obvious over the next six weeks whether or not this deck holds a spot in the Modern metagame.

Legacy & Vintage

Wasteland keeps climbing higher as it’s up another 10 tix in the past week. This may still be a reasonable buying price for players, but the optimal buying window for speculators is over. More price increases are going to come, but the card is not attractive anymore in terms of potential gains--especially considering the other speculative opportunities coming up this summer, starting with Modern Masters 2015 this week.

All the other TPR cards have stabilized in price. Although their future price trends are uncertain they should have reached a solid floor for many months to come.

Speculators interested in investing in these positions should have the Legacy MOCS scheduled for next November in mind when considering the holding period. The most attractive positions to take in TPR include Intuition, City of Traitors, Mox Diamond and Lotus Petal.

Pauper

Pauper’s outlook remains similar to the past weeks and all lights are green. After a big jump up followed by a big plunge, Mental Note has actually reached the 1 Tix mark again. Last time around the ban of Treasure Cruise and the subsequent fall in price may have caught speculators by surprise. If you are still holding onto Mental Note, this is the rebound that was hoped for and this selling opportunity should be strongly considered.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

None

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Voice of Resurgence

Pauper

Mental Note