Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of May 4^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from last week. All monthly changes are also relative to Goatbot’s prices, except for DTK which is relative to the mid-April set price. At this point, Supernova prices will still be collected for possible use in longer-term comparisons, but all weekly and monthly price changes will be developed from the full set MTGO prices listed on Goatbot’s website going forward.

Prices have generally moved up this past week, partly as a result of the continuing normalization of the MTGO economy as the DTK release event window gets further and further into the rear view mirror.

The going rate for tix has come down from nearly $1.00 to about $0.90 again. This move down means that the value of cards has gone up. This is why it is generally a mistake to be selling cards around release events; when tix are priced closed to $1.00, the value of cards is necessarily lower due to tix being the medium of exchange in the MTGO economy.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Paper prices for these sets showed some signs of strength this past week, with almost all TCG prices either flat or positive. TCG Low prices can be volatile, but RTR broke into triple digits for the first time since last summer, while GTC edged down slightly in the weekly change. The rotated sets are looking primed for higher prices as interest in Modern ramps up and the redemption system slowly eats away at the available supply.

Theros Block & M15

Soul of Shandalar came down to 0.21 tix on MTGOtraders website on May 4^th, and Goatbots was selling these at 0.33 tix. This temporary price dip was an excellent buying opportunity, but as of writing prices have rebounded to 0.40 tix and 0.37 tix at the two bots respectively. This card has very little play value and it should be considered only for its value due to redemption.

Buying this card at 0.40 or up to 0.50 tix will be profitable in the long term as most core set mythic rares tend to sell for 1+ tix after they rotate out of Standard. If you are willing to hold this card into 2016, at buy prices at or below 0.40 tix, this card has good value and excellent prospects for profit.

Keep an eye out for any mythic rares from THS or M15 that drop below 0.40 tix, and don’t be afraid to pick them up for a long-term hold. The Standard-unplayable mythic rares tend to bottom in the summer before rotation as opposed to in the fall for most rotated cards. However, there’s no strict timeline when junk mythic rares will find their particular price low.

Paying attention to the junk mythic rares when they dip to a low level is a nice, under-the-radar speculative strategy that pays off with slow, but steady, long-term gains. Do not apply this strategy to small set mythic rares as their price floor is much lower and the strategy is much riskier with unclear prospects.

Tarkir Block

KTK saw a nice price increase this week, so it’s safe to say that the bottom for KTK is in, at least until it rotates out of Standard. The period to blindly buy KTK sets for value is coming to a close. Future speculative purchases from this set should be restricted to cards that are undervalued for some reason, or whose prospects have improved due to changes in Standard.

On the other hand, it looks like FRF has found a price floor of around 45 tix. Don’t be afraid to slowly accumulate mythic rares from this set over the coming months, as they have probably found their individual price floor.

On the regular rare side of things, Tasigur, the Golden Fang has dipped below 3 tix and Crux of Fate has been lingering in the 1.5 to 2.0 tix range. It’s not time to be actively targeting these cards, but if Tasigur fell to around 2 tix or the black sweeper fell to around 1 tix, these are good prices to pick up these cards at.

DTK is the most expensive set in the block at the moment, and there’s no expectation of this changing anytime soon. Third sets in a block generally have higher prices due to being opened less, and DTK should not interrupt this trend. With TPR and MM2 both drawing interest away from DDF limited queues, it might not be until the summer starts that we see DTK dip into the 90 tix range.

Dragonlord Kolaghan is seeing some fringe Standard play at this point, and the price has rebounded from around 1 tix to about 1.5 tix. Accumulating at these prices seems like a fine long-term strategy, particularly with DTK sticking around in Standard after the next two rotations. Remember, there will be a normal Standard rotation this October when THS block and M15 leave, and then one of the new rotations will occur in the spring of 2016.

Modern

Official spoilers for MM2 began this week, and Mark Rosewater confirmed in his column that infect will not be a theme in MM2. This has put a charge back into the price of Inkmoth Nexus. With no reprint looming, this Modern staple should be in high demand as the overall price of Affinity decks takes a tumble with the reprint of Mox Opal.

Although the short-term opportunity on the Affinity man land has passed, QS forum user Coopes has pointed out that Arcbound Ravager has a strong chance of dodging a reprint now. With metalcraft looking like the artifact theme of MM2, this staple creature of Affinity decks should see a nice price bump when the full set is spoiled and it’s not on the list. Keep an eye on spoilers, but so far, the price of Ravager still looks like it is mildly expecting a reprint, despite the available evidence that modular will not be back as a mechanic.

Other big MM2 reprints that have been spoiled or confirmed this week include Splinter Twin as a rare (not a mythic), suggesting that the red enchantment will not be banned anytime soon. Noble Hierarch, Spellskite, Daybreak Coronet, Eye of Ugin, Leyline of Sanctity and Hurkyl's Recall have all been spoiled as this article goes to print.

Each of these rares is highly playable and an expensive Modern staple on MTGO . The reprint of Hurkyl's Recall is very interesting in the sense that the card doesn’t really belong to any particular theme, is pretty cheap in paper, and is absurdly expensive on MTGO. One may interpret this as a sign that WotC is considering online prices when thinking about cards to reprint.

On the mythic front, Mox Opal, Bitterblossom and Primeval Titan will be reprinted. By only reprinting the green titan, the most playable and expensive of all, WotC also tells us here that they don’t need to reprint a full cycle of specific cards. Leyline of Sanctity showing up without the other leylines is a real possibility.

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas is all but confirmed with the revealing of the awarded avatars for MTGO events (Dark Confidant was the other revealed avatar). Ajani Vengeant would therefore represent a decent pick up now as its price is at a one-year low and the white-red planeswalker has seen play in Modern in the past. This is more of a long-term target though as not showing up as a reprint will probably not move the price very much.

Finally, and especially for MTGO speculators, Dismember has been spoiled as an uncommon. If the reprint of Path to Exile in MMA is any example, we would expect Dismember to easily drop below 1.5-2 Tix, and to be a very good speculative target during MM2 release events.

Vintage & Legacy

Although quite stable for the past year or so, the price indices of these two formats is going to head lower due to the combined reprints of Modern Masters 2015 and Tempest Remastered.

TPR drafts start today and we should be able to see the impact of these drafts on Wasteland and City of Traitors this weekend. The two lands are likely to be very coveted, both by players and speculators. Prices might be hitting their lows during this first weekend, post-release.

Besides this, others Legacy and Vintages staples remain mostly flat. VMA P9 and mythic indices are at similar levels to five months ago. These formats aren’t usually very attractive for speculators due to lack of popularity from the player base. We will see in the coming weeks if reduced prices on Wasteland and City of Traitors attract more players. Next November is the Legacy MOCS and should correspond to a period of higher demand for Legacy staples.

Pauper

The outlook for Pauper cards remains unchanged from last week and most prices are stable or down. With TPR drafts opening today, Lotus Petal, Diabolic Edict and Rolling Thunder are cards to keep an eye on. Especially for the Petal as it is Legacy-, Vintage- and Pauper-playable and had kept a price between 2 and 4 Tix for years until recently.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Soul of Shandalar

Modern

Restoration Angel
Arcbound Ravager

Restoration Angel doesn’t currently have a home in top Modern decks. The ban of Birthing Pod and the fact that UWR midrange decks are out of favor allowed the price of this angel to drop to 4 tix. However this card is safe from reprint in MM2 and is certainly a powerful creature and combo enabler in Modern.

We recommended it in January and we are recommending it again now that the price has fallen and is more stable just at the outset of a period of heavier interest in Modern.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Standard

Battlefield Forge
Llanowar Wastes
Temple of Triumph
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Goblin Rabblemaster
Courser of Kruphix
Temple of Malady

This basket of Standard positions hasn’t been very successful. Furthermore it seems that we have passed the mini rebound that occurred after PT Dragons of Tarkir. With Standard rotation on the horizon there's not much to expect from these specs--selling now and cutting losses for most of them is the only reasonable move.