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In a short amount of time Dragons of Tarkir has radically altered the landscape of the Standard metagame. The set is wildly powerful and very deep with regard to Constructed-playable cards. It is already apparent that the heavy hitters of the set, Dragonlord Ojutai, Deathmist Raptor and Den Protector, have completely changed the lay of the land in Standard.
In today's article I'm going to take a look at some of the emergent trends going on as Standard shifts, and identify some of the cards that have a solid chance of gaining value in the coming weeks. The key to speculating on Standard cards in a metagame that is beginning to settle down is to identify cards that may become useful in combating strategies as they become popular.
I got a chance to play Standard at Grand Prix Toronto this past weekend and ended up finishing 107th place after conceding in the last round to a friend who needed the Pro Points to help lock up silver. I was pretty excited to play the tournament because I had a pretty spicy brew that I was very anxious to unleash upon the world. Here is the 75 that I sleeved up for the event:
4-Color Morph Control by Brian DeMars
Basically, my goal with this deck was to attack the Raptor recursion axis as hard as possible. I had Wayfinders to dig for mana and to dump the powerful creature into the graveyard and plenty of morph creatures to rebuy them over and over again.
From a financial speculation perspective both Den Protector and Deathmist Raptor have already surged up in price. Both cards, particularly in tandem, are quickly becoming one of the cornerstones of the current Standard metagame. The near infinite recursion of "Den Protector, bring back Raptor to the battlefield and return another Den Protector to my hand" is very difficult for most decks to beat once the game reaches the middle stages. Not to mention that both cards are extremely pushed in power level in their own right!
Nonetheless, just because Raptors and Protectors have hit high prices doesn't mean that we can't take this information and apply it to what may be comming next for Standard.
Joining Them
Stratus Dancer has been a card that I've really fallen in love with in the current Standard metagame. It is exactly the kind of card that players tend to classify as a "sideboard card," because it appears to be kind of narrow. However, as I went through multiple versions of my deck I pretty quickly discovered that Dancer was much better than just a cute narrow card and was actively great.
I wanted to draw it in basically every single matchup I played as every deck in the format has important instants and sorceries that need to get countered. In particular, it is a great little surprise counter against Crux of Fate, Crater's Claws, and Dig Through Time.
Another interaction that I absolutely love in this deck is to drop Dragonlord Ojutai and then morph Stratus Dancer precombat. I can then attack with the Ojutai and when they predictably cast their removal spell on my dragon I can unmorph the Dancer and get my hit in. The sequencing works out pretty awesome since they essentially need to spend two turns trying to kill the dragon and even if they have two kill spells I'm still left with a 3/2 flier.
It's just really awesome to have a counterspell creature that is also a morph for the purpose of recurring Raptor. It's also really infuriating for opponents to have to play around multiple different morph creatures. For instance, at the GP nearly every one of my opponents got blown out by Dancer the first time that I unmorphed it because they didn't think I would play it in the maindeck.
I think this card is actually much better than people currently seem to think it is and that it is likely underpriced at the moment. I've been trading for as many as possible based on my experience and how good I think the card is likely to be moving forward. Basically any blue-green Raptor/Protector shell is going to be playing at least two copies of this card in the 75. It was also pretty hot tech in Tornoto for the Esper Dragons deck to be playing Dancer out of the sideboard for the mirror.
Speaking of confounding Morphs...
The best card in my entire sideboard was my singleton Hidden Dragonslayer. I'm fairly certain that I sideboarded it in every single round that I played which makes me think it should have just been in my maindeck. The card was absolute gas and killed everything from Siege Rhino to Dragonlord Atarka.
It's also a very reasonable card against Mono-Red because it has lifelink and can just come down on the second turn to block a Zurgo Bellstriker or Foundry Street Denizen and gain a few hit points. I really enjoyed having a wide array of morphs because it made life very difficult for my opponents. I almost always just played everything face down, even my Raptors. It's a pretty filthy feeling when you cast a morph on turn three and your opponent counters it and you happily put a Deathmist Raptor into the bin.
It is also very relevant that it kills Dragonlord Ojutai even when the opponent has mana available to cast counterspells during their attack phase.
However, it is the fact that some of your morphs are counterspells, regrowths, or removal that puts an opponent in this precarious position. After having played a bunch with the card I think it will likely be a staple card in any Raptor deck with access to white mana.
Like Dancer, the Hidden Dragonslayer is super cheap right now and has a good chance of turning a nice profit. Also of note, most of the local game stores in my area are straight up sold out of both of these powerful and versatile morph creatures, which tells me the demand is high.
Another interesting morph card that I didn't actually play with but wish I had:
On the way home from the tournament I was talking with my friends in the car about which cards get significantly better in a metagame where "protecting the den" is a cornerstone tier one strategy. Kyle Boggemes threw out Grim Haruspex and I really wished he had mentioned this card on the way down because I would have played one in my 75 for sure.
The card gives these decks an awesome way to make use out of extra mana dorks and Satyr Wayfinders by turning them into cards. It also gives morph decks a great way to punish people for trying to play sweepers. It is also interesting that it is one of the better morph creatures to flip for only a single black mana. So, in sequencing you can play a Raptor on turn three and then morph Haruspex and flip it on four.
I've always thought Haruspex was a very good Magic card and have had very positive experiences playing with it in my Danger Room and in limited. Once again, copies of this card are super cheap so if it gets played at all it will likely be worth having picked a few copies up in trades.
Right now Trail of Mystery is basically just a bulk rare but if morphing becomes a thing and people are trying to "outmorph" each other I could see Trail of Mystery being the "next level." It generates card advantage and fixes your mana but people also seem to forget that it pumps your creatures when you flip them!
If you unmorph a Den Protector it suddenly has five power and can swing past nearly everything, or it can just block and kill a Siege Rhino which is pretty baller.
I had Trail of Mystery in my "bulk rares" pile and I pulled them all back out just in case. It is also one of those cards that I'm now kind of looking to have people throw into a trade when the value is off by just a little bit. Chances are that it won't happen but even if it goes up to a buck or two it's worth having a few copies on hand to trade away.
I bought a playset of Japanese Sidisi's for $10 in Toronto and English ones are currently selling for about three bucks a piece. I honestly just think this is way too low for this card. It is a powerful mythic and it just so happens to play really nicely with Den Protector and Deathmist Raptor.
I think that as the metagame evolves one way or another Sidisi will likely have a place. I haven't had a ton of success with Whip of Erebos decks lately, but maybe adding Deathmist Raptor to the mix would help things out a bit.
I also like the fact that this card will be sticking around in Standard for another year. I think it has a ton of room to grow and is at the lowest it will be for some time. All things considered, I'm looking to trade for every copy of this card that I can get my hands on right now.
Beating Them
Obviously, the morph decks being good will open up the opportunity for the cards that go in those decks to rise in price, but the cards that are good against these decks are also going to benefit from an increase in value.
Two of the best cards against the "protect the den" strategy are ones that I think are really good "quick flip" cards to target.
These are legitimately two of the best cards against the morph strategy and are genearlly played in U/B or Esper Control decks. The upside is that they are two of the very best cards against Raptors and Protectors but the downside is that they will be rotating out with the rest of Theros and M15 in the fall.
I think there will be a high demand from players for these cards in the coming week or two and an increase in value on both. However this increase will likely be short-lived as rotation pressure forces players and collectors to dump these cards before losing value.
The next month or so will likely be the last best opportunity to dump these cards off before they take a nose dive when the "summer lull" kicks in. However, trading for them now and then quickly trading them to players who need them to adapt their decks to the changing times could be a great way to make some value.
The card that I think probably benefits the most with regard to having a high ceiling for price increase on the heels of the Den decks:
Anafenza is awesome at shutting down graveyard decks and is one of the few ways to really shut down the den engine. It is also one of the few cards that just straight up trades with a Raptor for good. Not to mention it is a 3cc 4/4 with multiple relevant abilities...
The card is a mythic rare and gets played as a four-of in one of the tier-one decks in Standard.
Anafenza has also been showing up in some Modern lists lately which shows that she has the stuff to be a competitive card outside of just Standard. For what she is, what she does, and how much she gets played, the card seems pretty underpriced to me. I also really like the fact that like Sidisi, Anafenza has another full year of life in Standard before she rotates.
Right now, Anafenza, the Foremost is the number one Standard card that I'm targeting to trade and/or buy, because I think it is at its low point and has a lot of room to grow in the coming year.
The new Standard metagame is really interesting and the games are really complex and fun to play. To be honest, I don't remember a Standard format in recent memory that I've enjoyed playing more than this one. I also think that people seem to really be embracing this new Dragons format and are enjoying innovating and being creative.
It's just like anything else, if you stay on top of things and look to where they might be heading next you can get a big jump on the competition. In today's article I've tried to lay out some of the places I could see Standard going to and some of the cards that would really benefit from these shifts. As always, I'm looking to find cards that are at the lowest price they can realistically be and have a large ceiling to grow into.
How was your mana for the GP? I’ve been working on a lot of decks like this and I’ve been thinking of using Bloodsoaked Champion as well to create a Dredgevine type deck. Did you consider including that guy and how do you think he would fit in the deck?
My mana was surprisingly good at the event. I only had to mulligan one hand because of color issues.”Temple of Deceit, Caves of Koilos, Sylvan Caryatid.”
I considered Champion as a sideboard card against control but ultimately just played edicts instead.
He can’t block, doesn’t kill things bigger than himself, doesn’t have evasion, doesn’t have morph, and you have no sac engine to make really good use of him.
Does he sound playable?
More free creatures from your graveyard can’t be a bad thing.
If you are looking to build a straight up Graveyard deck Risen Executioner is a card as well. That card could easily be a good spec target as well. One thing to keep in mind is that Anafenza is seeing a ton of play and is very good against the Dredgevine style decks… Anafenza is a 4x in most of the abzan decks.
Hi Brian,
I’ve been a long-time reader of your Vintage content at SCG, and it’s great to be able to read those articles of yours on QS.
Similar to Trail of Mystery, I think Ghostfire Blade could be pretty nice tech if people start trying to outmorph each other. The high-end manifest cards (Mastery of the Unseen, Whisperwood Elemental) also play well in a face-down deck, but those are not great speculation targets right now.
Regards,
Ghostfire Blade is a nice one too. It also has “Modern Playable” tag as it is sometimes an include in Affinity lists. Most importantly it’s really cheap. If Morph Wars is going to be a thing at some point I think Trail is the best one. You invest two mana at some point in the game and it is going to draw multiple lands and give you a ton of combat tricks throughout the game.