Is there a more… Modern one? (ha! Silly pun).

Did someone do an analysis of the 2017 meta?

Tier 1 and 2 decks are defined on the Top Decks page (http://quietspeculation.com/topdecks/). In essence, decks are tier 1 if they comprise a significantly above-average segment of the metagame. Decks are tier 2 if their prevalence is above average, but not as high as those in tier 1. This accounts for MTGO dailies/MOCS/PPTQ events, all paper events, and also any major paper events (e.g. Grand Prix or Pro Tour) finishes in the date range. Because we are in an offseason, the most recent “major paper event” was in late February (SCG Baltimore), so we are using weighted numbers from that tournament. All the other finishes are from the hundreds of other events that happen in any given date range.

One thing to point out about Modern fish is that it transforms into Legacy fish pretty easily, and is as serious contender in Legacy as it is in Modern, which just drips value. Switch out 10-15 cards of the 75 and you can play multiple formats. This is also true of Burn.

I was watching shocktroopa’s (kharniverous) stream over the weekend and he said he cashed out in 5 of the last 6 dailies/8-mans he did. He also went to his game history page and showed that his constructed rating is something like 860. And he only plays mono-u tron. That’s bananas. Honestly, I think a deck like mono-u tron requires even more of an understanding of the format/opponent’s deck than usual, since it’s so reactive. That’s why the deck is only so good if the pilot is really, really good. IMO

The MWP issue with Mono U Tron is that it’s artificially brought down by newer players. The players who go 4-0/3-1 with it are good pilots who know their stuff. Their win rates are quite strong. But the players who go 2-2 or worse are disproportionately bringing down the MWP because they are so new to the format. It’s actually an interesting effect because you don’t see it with a lot of other decks.

That said, shoktroopa has had that many results in daily events that I can’t help but think there must be something there.

Of course dear Galerion I agree with you. But the thing is that with a Simian Spirit Guide ban IF they wanted to ban it, turn 1 kill becomes impossible and turn 2 kill becomes immensely hard to be dealt.

I think it’s perfectly fine to warn people about Amulet Bloom. It does violate the Turn 4 rule. There is no discussion to be had there. The only thing that matters is if Wizards thinks that is happening too often or not.
You don’t want to get caught with your pants down when a banning does happen because you invested into a deck that has almost no staples in it that you could use in many other decks.

Awesome – looking forward to it!

That’s actually the plan. I’m adding more dailies to the dataset to see if we can increase any of those N’s, but once we do, expect to see some new articles on it.

Short of Force of Wills mind you.

Sorry if this wasn’t clear. I definitely don’t think Bloom should be banned and I also don’t want ANYTHING banned. But I also want to give full information to my readers, and based on what Wizards has done in the past, the Bloom ban is the likeliest IF something from the deck does get banned. Do I want it to happen? No way. Do I think it will happen? Right now, no. But if something does get banned from that deck, I think it will be Bloom and I want readers to prepare themselves for that. Honestly, I would like Wizards to either ease up on the banning and to be more transparent about the whole process. Until that happens, however, I want players to be prepared for worst-case scenarios.