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So, as of this morning there seems to be a sell-side spike on Dack Fayden. As per the stock report this morning, the card has increased 69% putting the card at a "new" high at around the 50$ range. Now, there were some telling signs that the price could increase, but this drastic increase will most likely not hold. The card may not return to it's original pricing, but the initial capital investment for a marginal gain is not a good use of funds.
The one good thing going for Dack is his inclusion in a supplemental product, which are not opened at the same rate as regular expansion sets. Without a new surge of demand, and without a viable Constructed setting, there won't be a justified reason to pay the new pricing on the card. While I did say Conspiracy boxes aren't as readily available, there is still a lot of product out there floating around in various places. If this leads to an increase on people busting into their Conspiracy packs, then you can expect the price to drop.
The telling sign here was the buylist price increasing steadily, but not at an alarming rate. The drastic sell-side buyout will be disproportionate to the general demand of the card from buyers, and from stores not increasing buylist pricing to match the new price. To show off a little preview of the new Trader Tools coming down the pipeline (very soon) here is what was happening to the buy-list pricing on Dack Fayden:
Highlighting what the market place is looking like already, the spike (and card) has already started downward, as any hoarded copies are being dumped into the market. This race to the bottom is highlighted here on TCGPlayer.com, where the initial buy-out happened.
As you can clearly see, when more people catch on about the "spike" sellers will starts scrambling to get as much profit as they can from the copies being held, or extras in inventory. So one can determine from the trends, that there wasn't much to be had on this particular card. While the "spike" and percentages look very appealing, this was a sell-side buyout; it could just be one person trying to manipulate the market by clearing out one market. In this case it was TCGPlayer, and every other site followed suit, but there were (and still are) copies out there in the 30$ range. As the pushback from buyers starts to settle in, multiple sellers trying to under-cut each other will continue to undercut driving the price further downward.
My prediction is that this card will likely not reach it's initial pricing, but will most likely end up in the mid $30 area. Which was the "new" floor of this buy-out, considering many were not as bold to purchase those copies.
So, let's re-cap:
- This was a sell-side spike.
- While the card most likely won't return to old pricing, it will probably trend downward from this new price. Settling in the 30$ area.
- While this is a sell-side spike, this card is worth watching for another potential investment down the road.
- Sell immediately and get profit if cards were purchased 25$ and below.
So that about wraps things up for this Quick Stock, as always it's beneficial to look over the numbers and data, and really figure out what's going on behind the scenes of these spikes. The best investment on this card has passed, and I think without viable Constructed play the price will stagnate and trend downward. Like I mentioned before, there are good things going for this card as a potential investment again at some point. The foil multiplier is far past normalcy, and any new interest in this card could slowly pick this card up again. At the same time, Conspiracy boxes will start to slowly disappear as each new card from that set generates interest, or the foil EV keeps on being extremely lucrative.
As it stands there are probably better things to invest in.