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Last weekend and this upcoming weekend are huge moments for establishing what Modern will look like moving forward. The SCG Invitational, SCG Open and Grand Prix Charlotte are three gigantic Modern tournaments all running back to back to back.
With two of the three big tournaments in the bag already and the biggest one on the horizon I think that there is a pretty clear portrait being painted of certain decks and strategies separating themselves from the pack. Once we know which decks are going to be the tier-one mainstays for the foreseeable future it is possible to identify solid speculative pick ups in the short term.
Generally speaking, I like to win small and consistent when it comes to MTG finance. In today's article I'm going to focus in on a few cards from each of the tier one decks from last weekend and explain why I like them as pickups in the next week or so.
Beyond the specific reasons for each card, I also like the cards discussed below because even if they don't spike they are unlikely to decrease in price, and they will be trading hotly no matter what.
The new black-red command was all over the place in Modern this past weekend, featured in three of the best decks in the format: Grixis Control, Grixis Delver, and Jund. In fact, this card all by itself basically catapulted all of these archetypes into the limelight.
In short, Kolaghan's Command is the new hotness in Modern.
The card is pure value and will almost always be a straight two-for-one. Between Shock, Raise Dead, and discard a card the spell already gets you advantage. The icing on the cake is the prospect of a free shatter to take out a Spellskite, Cranial Plating, Vedalken Shackles, or Wurmcoil Engine, which really pushes the card over the top.
In a format where drawing extra cards is quite challenging because everybody’s spells need to be hyper-efficient, a three-mana instant that can interact with the board in various ways and generate card advantage is too good to pass up.
The card has already gone up in value substantially in the past week and as I’m writing this it sits at about $6. I actually think the card is a solid pick up at $6 just because of how good it is in Modern. I don’t typically love picking up regular rares that are Standard legal as Modern specs but this card is just so impactful in Modern that I think it will be very popular card for a long time to come.
Inquisition of Kozilek was all over the place this past weekend. Basically, all of the decks that play the black-red command are also making use of this powerful discard spell.
The biggest upside of this card compared to Thoughtseize (which is generally considered a more powerful card) is that a lot of Modern decks don’t play a ton of 3+ cc spells, and not having to pay two life is pretty significant with so many Burn decks and Lightning Bolts floating around.
There are so many powerful things going on in Modern but a lot of those things end up costing life as a resource: Ravnica shock lands, fetch lands, Dark Confidant, and Phyrexian mana all come to mind. There are so many awesome ways to gain an edge on mana by paying life, but at the same time you’ve got to draw the line somewhere! Inquisition is good because it gives you a lot of the Thoughtseize power without the life loss.
Inquisition of Kozilek was reprinted in a deck which suppresses the value somewhat but considering how popular the card has been the past week I think that demand will simply outweigh even the reprinted supply. At the very least, I think there will continue to be a growing demand for the card as more players clamor to build various Kolaghan's Command decks.
Personally, I think that if before the MM2 reprint Remand was a $15+ card, Inquisition of Kozilek is twice the card and deserves the same kind of tag. Both have the parallel of the random deck reprint and I see Inquisition in the same range. They are also fantastic trade bait, pretty much flying out of a binder if you feel like moving them.
Olivia sees play in a lot of these BRx sideboards as a trump for creature mirror matches. I like this card a pickup because it has not been reprinted and is a mythic rare from a set that has been a couple of years removed from Standard.
Even if this card was not seeing a ton of new Modern play because of the popularity of Jund, I would still be in on picking it up. In fact, I’ve been hording up Olivias for a while now. The card is an awesome commander and just an amazing casual kitchen table card.
When you consider all of that and the fact that it is seeing a bunch of Modern play, I simply like the card better than the $7 price tag that it commands as I’m writing this article.
My thought on this card is that a lot of people will be looking for this card in the next few weeks to finish off their sideboards. Newfound interest from Modern players when combined with consistent casual appeal is the formula for a winner. Olivia just has nowhere to go but up.
G/R Tron won both the SCG Open and the SCG Invitational this past weekend so it seems only fitting to speculate on something from that deck. People tend to follow and jump on whichever bandwagon is doing well and it is hard to argue with two wins in a row.
I like Oblivion Stone as a speculation target for the same reason as Olivia. It is also a fantastic commander and casual card. Not only is Oblivion Stone one of the most powerful cards in the Tron deck but O Stone is also arguably the best Commander wrath variant ever printed.
It was reprinted in Commander 2011 which puts a little bit of a ceiling on the card but I was happy to trade for them at $12-13 all weekend long. I could see this card making some money in the short term but I also think that it is a solid long term investment because it also has the casual angle working for it.
My other pick from the Tron deck has to be Scrying. It wasn't reprinted in MM2 which seems kind of weird to me. I've been making a point of trying to trade for these the past month and they are kind of tough to find in trade binders. I guess some people don't realize that it is a solid $4 uncommon.
Mirrodin and 10th Edition haven't seen print in a long, long time and the card just isn't very easy to find.
Sylvan Scrying also does have the competitive casual appeal of going into a bunch of different Commander decks. I do think that the card is very likely to be reprinted at some point in time. It just feels like the kind of card that gets reprinted... So, it may lose some value in the long term as a card to hold onto but I think there is a pretty solid chance that it will be a short-term gainer.
Tutors are really good and this one is no exception.
There has been a ton of chatter on Facebook and Twitter over the weekend about the Amulet Bloom deck being too fast and too powerful, and speculating that something (Summer Bloom?) should get banned. CVM lost in the finals of the Invitational with Bloom last weekend and the deck just seems absolutely awesome.
While it is true that there is a good chance that something will get banned, I also think the allure of the fast, banworthy combo deck will lure a lot of players to buy into Amulet Combo.
The card I like the most out of the deck as a speculative target is Hive Mind because the card is relatively cheap ($6 at time of writing) and it's often difficult to find random rares from older M sets. I’d trade for basically every copy that I could get my hands on and be looking to flip them when and if they pick up some value in the next week or two.
Even if Summer Bloom were to get banned in July, I still think that Hive Mind is a solid card to own. As “unfun” as Hive Mind + Pacts is, the actual card Hive Mind is a pretty crazy casual multiplayer spell--never a bad thing to have on your side when you are speculating on cards.
It's time for this card to go up. Return to Ravnica has been out of Standard for almost two years now and it's time that some of those cards start to creep up in price.
Slaughter Games is a great one because it does see quite a bit of Modern Constructed play and it is really, really good at what it does. It is an anti-combo card that the decks that don't play blue can actually play. The uncounterable clause also makes it awesome against blue-based combo decks that pack permission to protect their combo.
The Tron deck that won the Invitational was packing three copies of the card and as more and more people copy that list, the demand will go up. I think it is pretty safe to say that this is better than a $0.50 card.
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Modern is an interesting format and Khans of Tarkir block has certainly left its mark on it. The delve spells have been huge players and the ones that didn't get banned are starting to make their presence felt. The Kolaghan's Command has also left its mark, giving a strong card advantage spell to a color combination not typically know for that kind of effect.
The format is really exciting right now and picking up the best, most underrated cards before the hype wagon starts looking for singles is key to making a nice gain on investment.
And that black-red command is the real deal! Wow, is that card effective.
Ravnica and Rise of the Eldrazi may not be comparable in print run size, throwing off the Remand / Inquestion of Kozilek comparison.
I don’t know when you wrote the article, but O-stone and Olivia were 2x – 3x in price yesterday if not sooner.