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Insider: MTG Stock Watch for 6/1/15

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Penny Picks

1. Kolghan's Command (+209.2%) - This recent Standard addition has proven that cheap two-for-ones are good in any format. It has even found a minor home in some Legacy Grixis decks, though this price jump is primarily due to its adoption in Modern Grixis Delver decks.

Maindeck hate for Spellskites and everything Affinity is borderline playable on its own, but Kolaghan's Command can also force an opponent to discard at instant speed, or even better, Raise Dead one of your powerful, efficient creatures (ideally a Snapcaster Mage).

kolaghans command

2. Retract (+141.1%) - This card found a home in the Puresteel Paladin combo deck of Modern, which basically wants to play and then replay as many of its free/cheap equipment as possible to build a really high storm count.

retract

3. Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Commander 2014) (+38.3%) - With the Collected Company Elves deck debuting and proving its power level, it's not surprising to see demand for its Collectable kill condition rise.

ezuri

4. Eternal Witness (DD: Izzet vs. Golgari) (+21%) - The rise in this one is most likely due to the increase in Collected Company-based Modern decks. Eternal Witness provides a powerful card advantage engine and can rebuy the Collected Company used to put it into play (which is often the most powerful card in decks that play it.)

ewitnessig

5. Attrition (Commander 2013) (+13.8%) - I count only 26 sellers for this on TCGplayer currently which implies that a few of the cheap ones leaving the market will cause a significant rise in the average price.

attrition

6. Hurkyl's Recall (Modern Masters 2015) (-11.8%) - It's not surprising to see this card taking a hit--with the reprinting in MM2015 and a resurgence in GBx decks, Hurkyl's Recall demand should be at an all time low.

I expect this one to keep dropping, but eventually a blue control deck will find a home again in Modern and then we'll likely see this narrow but powerful sideboard card gain.

recall

7. Eternal Witness (Commander 2013) (+11.2%) - See number 4.

ewitcom

8. Goblin King (Tenth Edition) (+11.2%) - This one is most likely due to the small number of sellers listed (23 as of writing this). I can say this with some certainty because the 9th Edition version is sitting at around half the price, has the same artwork, and is theoretically rarer as it is older, and print run sizes tend to constantly be going upwards.

This discrepancy might also be due to the difference in border color, as Tenth Edition was the first Core Set since Beta printed in black-border.

goblinking

9. Treetop Village (DD: Knights vs. Dragons) (+10.2%) - Thanks to Collected Company we are starting to see a surge in GBx decks in Modern again. The banning of Pod set the archetype back some, though it's still considered Tier 1 by most players. Treetop Village provides a powerful, efficient attacker that can't get hit by Abrupt Decay and has a form of evasion in trample.

treetop

10. Thran Dynamo (Commander 2014) (+9.8%) - This EDH staple used to sit at $6.50 prior to reprintings, so it's not surprising to see it start to climb back up--especially since it only showed up in the blue Commander deck, which didn't have any powerful eternal cards and seems to be the one most often found sitting on store shelves.

thrand

Blue Chips

1. Underground Sea (-3.17%) - Despite an archetype that requires Underground Seas resurfacing (Grixis Delver), the king of dual lands still had the biggest price change this week...and it was negative. Underground Sea keeps getting closer and closer to Volcanic Island, and if this rate continues we may have a new "king dual" in the next couple of months.

sea

2. Jace, the Mind Sculptor (-2.09%) - With Legacy getting faster (with Infect and Omni-Tell), the best planeswalker ever is getting pushed out, as few players want to spend four mana on their own turn to cast Brainstorm and risk losing before Jace can do anything else.

jtms

3. Show and Tell (+1.92%) - Not all that surprisingly, with the resurgence of Know and Tell decks, the lynchpin of the deck moves up this week, as does its partners in crime, Omniscience (+104.3%) and Cunning Wish (+113.6%).

show

4. Sneak Attack (-1.91%) - Since apparently all of the Show and Tell players have jumped ship from blue-red to mono-blue, Sneak Attack again falls in price (for yet another week in a row).

sneak

5. Taiga (+1.12%) - Taiga was the first dual land to return to its pre-spike price, which could well be why people have started buying them again. Thanks to the Reserved List they are safe from increasing in supply and demand will likely steadily grow for all duals as players transfer their recent MM2015 cards to more stable Legacy assets (like they did last time).

taiga

6. Dark Confidant (-1.03%) - Poor Bob, still on the decline thanks to seeing limited play in Modern and almost none in Legacy. However, Jund decks have started to resurface on the Modern scene and Bob is still their best source of actual card advantage. The fact that they can run both Huntmaster of the Fells and Kitchen Finks can help offset the life loss and allow him to wreck havoc when unanswered.

bob

7. Tarmogoyf (+0.77%) - Not surprising the dip on the originals was minor, though currently MM2015 copies can be had for $50 less. The original Modern Masters version isn't fairing as well as his Future Sight brother though, having dropped a few dollars again.

goyf

8. Force of Will (+0.77%) - Force of Will has come back full force as more players have moved into Legacy since last year, who don't want to leave home without the glue keeping the format together. This card's price and relative stability makes me think that Disrupting Shoal (as bad a comparison as it is) may well be the key to a full fledged control deck in Modern...

fow

9. Bayou (-0.74%) - Despite Elves experiencing a resurgence in Modern, its Legacy brother still seems to be dropping in demand, most likely thanks to my beloved Miracles deck (Elves has a really tough time against both Terminus and Counterbalance).

bayou

10. Tropical Island (+0.62%) - We've started to see BUG and RUG Delver variants resurface again and this is one of the critical lands for both. Legacy mana bases are getting greedier and greedier and it may be Stifle's time to shine again very soon.

trop

Sealed Product

It's time we visit our sealed product again as I've heard rumors in the forums of an increase in demand of even the cheaper sealed boxes. It is important to consider that every time someone drafts an older set or cracks the packs the overall supply is reduced.

As noted, Dark Ascension is seeing a pretty big jump in demand (+22.34%), which may be because it sat at normal sealed box pricing for so long and a few individuals decided to buy it up, or because people really want Huntmaster of the Fells.

Rise of the Eldrazi (ROE) is actually surprising given that the three biggest chase mythics of the set (the Eldrazi titans) all showed up in MM2015, so they can be picked up far cheaper going through MM2015 boxes than through ROE boxes.

Week of 06/01/15

Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent New Average Average comparison
Innistrad $211.99 $215.00 $220.00 $229.00 $219.00 6.39%
Dark Ascension $112.95 $89.00 $126.48 $112.50 $110.23 22.34%
Avacyn Restored $139.99 $129.00 $129.95 $139.95 $134.72 -2.60%
Scars of Mirrodin $209.95 $194.95 $174.99 $166.24 $186.53 -5.86%
Mirrodin Besieged $122.51 $165.00 $149.50 $125.00 $140.50 -7.82%
New Phyrexia $288.04 $329.99 $329.99 $329.99 $319.50 3.84%
Zendikar $534.99 $514.99 $460.00 $500.00 $502.50 -1.04%
Worldwake $640.00 $640.00 $649.99 $640.00 $642.50 -6.03%
Rise of the Eldrazi $474.99 $599.99 $600.00 $599.99 $568.74 13.77%

8 thoughts on “Insider: MTG Stock Watch for 6/1/15

    1. I agree…but one of my other articles looked at the price trends from MM1 and showed that for the most part…cards were at their lowest 6 months after it’s release…I expect that time frame to be much shorter this time around, so I wouldn’t fault you for picking them up now…especially if you need them to play…but I still think he has a bit more room to drop.

        1. Goyf will likely not drop a whole lot more….if you can get them around $130-$140 and need them to play…I’d get them now. Cryptic is a different story, it’s not seeing a ton of play currently and it’s price is heavily bouyed by price memory (as opposed to actual demand for decks) given it’s rarely played in anything outside of Scapeshift or Gifts Control decks, I feel like it has more room to drop.

  1. JTMS being pushed out of Legacy? But, but, but it’s too powerful!!!!1! I guess not. It seems more and more that the only thing keeping him banned in modern is bad memories of players being beaten senseless by decks playing him. Now he can’t even get included in decks due to him getting instakilled too much?

    No mention of Omniscience or Cunning Wish shooting up?

    1. “Show and Tell (+1.92%) – Not all that surprisingly, with the resurgence of Know and Tell decks, the lynchpin of the deck moves up this week, as does its partners in crime, Omniscience (+104.3%) and Cunning Wish (+113.6%).”

      I got you covered on Omniscience and Cunning Wish….as for JTMS, I’m in full agreement…I honestly feel that modern NEEDS JTMS if only because his entry to the format would likely allow for an actual control deck, which in turn can help keep the combo decks in check…the only concern there would be he’d skyrocket in price if unbanned (easily surpassing Goyf for the short term) and people without him would complain about the cost of modern again.

  2. I don’t think Know and Tell’s rise is an indication of a faster format. The people playing it are usually former Sneak and Show players. K&T is slower than S&S but is much more stable and resilient.

    If anything it is slowing slightly as Delver decks adopt Dig to last into the late game. However Miracles is a deck that no longer runs 4 Jace as they incorporate 2 copies of Dig they don’t need as many copies of the PW.

    1. I’ve been on the U/W/x Miracles train for almost 2 years now and I’ve never played the full 4x JTMS…you don’t cast him on turn 4 and leave yourself with no mana up, you tend to cast him more on turn 7+…and with Tops/Ponders/BS, you see enough cards that you’ll still find him early enough consistantly….I do love Dig in the deck though….people forget that for all of it’s card manipulation/consistancy, most legacy decks don’t actually play much card advantage and both Dig and JTMS provide actual card advantage.

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