Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of June 8^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

RTR and GTC have seen a bump in their set price in the past week on MTGO and the uptrend in paper is continuing. Modern continues to attract a ton of attention and the shocklands anchor the price of these sets. As outlined in previous reports though, the gains are not evenly distributed in these sets. Modern-playable cards continue to appreciate in price, while the junk mythic rares have been largely flat.

Speculators holding Modern-playable cards from these sets should consider the recent surge of interest as a good exit point. With the Magic Origins (ORI) previews that were released on the mothership today, it's a good time to consider the next speculative opportunity on MTGO. Getting liquid by selling down positions over the next six weeks will be crucial in advance of the release of the last core set.

Junk mythic rares have little downside at this point, but the upside is uncertain and would only appear after the conclusion of the Modern Festival.

Value can flow between the individual cards of redeemable sets on MTGO depending on players' interests, but the overall value of the set is anchored to the much more stable paper prices through redemption. If players decide to sell off their Modern cards, then demand from redeemers will kick in and elevate the price of the junk mythic rares as value flows from cards like the shocklands to cards like Vraska the Unseen.

Theros Block & M15

These sets continue to head lower in price as bots and paper dealers liquidate inventory in advance of Standard rotation. The vast majority of cards from these sets will settle into financial oblivion after they leave Standard, so the trend is undeniable.

The currently actionable items in these sets remain cards that are priced at or near bulk. Buying cards at bulk prices helps to limit downside and as long as there's expected future demand for the card in question, then buying at bulk prices ensures safe, if unspectacular profits.

At the moment, Underworld Cerberus is the only junk mythic rare worth pursuing. It's from a redeemable set and is priced below 0.4 tix at Goatbot. If speculators are willing to hold this card for six-plus months, then prices higher than 0.6 tix are anticipated. Buying at 0.4 tix is a low-risk speculative bet with the potential for 100% gains.

Tarkir Block

The sets of Tarkir block stabilized this week after the initial hype around the release of MM2 drove down prices on these sets. With the release of Magic Origins now on the horizon, the bottom on DTK and FRF is near.

Putting away playsets of the mythics and rares at current prices will have limited downside, although the ultimate bottom will occur during ORI release events. With KTK a couple of months removed from being a part of the most current draft format, KTK will not dip back to its set low of 65 tix until it gets closer to rotating out of Standard.

Prowess has been revealed this week as an evergreen mechanic in Magic Origins so speculators should consider prowess enablers and other related cards such as Ojutai Exemplars as speculative targets. This DTK mythic in particular is priced above junk at over 1 tix--taking a modest position in that card is warranted as it's already priced at a relatively low level.

Modern

Modern continues to be the format to pay attention to. As evident by the Modern Staples Price Index, Modern prices are again this week maintaining their upward trend.

The ranks of Modern staples breaking their previous record high get bigger every day, with Steel Overseer, Sulfur Falls, Oblivion Stone, Serra Ascendant, Horizon Canopy and Celestial Colonnade among the latest examples these days. If the bear market in constructed cards was ushered in by the switchover to V4, the latest broad price surge signals that the bear market is officially over.

Speculators should be particularly attentive to the cards breaking new records at unprecedented speed. Such increases are unlikely to sustain and may precede rapid price falls. For example, Heritage Druid, Blackcleave Cliffs and Darkslick Shores have recently risen rapidly to extreme heights and are about to break. The red-black SOM dual land has already lost ~50% of its value in less than a week.

Speculators holding on to positions following similar patterns should consider selling now to avoid the inevitable subsequent price fall. Cards in this category include Amulet of Vigor, Deceiver Exarch, Grove of the Burnwillows, Steel Overseer and Sulfur Falls.

Reinvigorated by Ali Aintrazi's win at the SGC Invitational this past weekend, G/R Tron finally took home a major trophy. This finish greatly benefited the already-pumped-up key cards of the deck. Oblivion Stone, Grove of the Burnwillows and Wurmcoil Engine are now at an all-time highs, and Sylvan Scrying, a bulk uncommon three weeks ago, is now valued at over 2 tix.

Due to its reprint in MM2, Karn Liberated hasn't really taken off yet. Speculators should strongly consider taking a position in this mythic, currently priced at about 17 tix but previously up to 50 tix less than four months ago.

There are still cards being ignored by the market, below their long-term price. Vengevine has typically held a price range of 8 to 12 tix but is currently priced at about 5 tix. The low price is a 'hangover' from the fear of being reprinted in MM2, which afflicted the price of almost every card in Modern.

It will only take one Woo brew featuring this card for the price to double overnight. Be sure to stock a few of these away for just such an occasion. A reprint in ORI is possible, but that would be just as much of a short-term boon for this card as getting featured in a brewer's deck. There is very little downside to speculating on Vengevine at current prices.

Two weeks into the release of Modern Masters 2015, prices seem to have stabilized, at least from the whole set value perspective. Individually, MM2 prices of the most demanded cards are still fluctuating quite a lot. However prices of the most coveted mythics and rares are unlikely to see further significant price drops and speculators should consider acquiring these positions now.

The majority of the current top 20-25 most expensive MM2 cards would fit this category and represent as many good speculative targets. If MMA price trajectories are any indication, these top 20-25 cards are likely to see their prices rise until the release of the next fall set. Less in-demand rares and uncommons will still see some price weakness for the immediate future as the market digests the incoming supply.

Legacy & Vintage

Nothing new has occurred to disrupt the unshakeable flat line of prices of these two formats. The vast majority of prices remain in stasis and only isolated variations or small price adjustments from Tempest Remastered cards have been observed this week. Although rather active for the past four weeks, Wasteland seems to have halted its growth and is stabilizing in the 65-70 tix range.

Dack Fayden is one of the very few cards on the rise for the past two months. It's a moderate trend, but supply for this planeswalker is rather limited.

As the card has made its way into the top Vintage decklists, the price should keep rising as long as the card is not reprinted in a new set or in VMA flashback drafts. If it is any indication, Dack's supply on Goatbots, MtgoTraders and Mtgo Library bots is quite low and is often out of stock. Dack Fayden is the only VMA card with such low stocks for several weeks now.

Pauper

Pauper positions continues to show all signs of a cyclical format in terms of price fluctuations. After Mental Note a few weeks ago, Accumulated Knowledge, Snuff Out and Moment's Peace all bumped up by ~40% this past week. This kind of unexpected price increases are what Pauper speculators should take advantage of.

On the other side, Seat of the Synod, Quirion Ranger, Nettle Sentinel and Ninja of the Deep Hours, to name a few, appear to be at a low point these days. They may represent as many buying opportunities for speculators interested in Pauper speculations.

Although price variations appear wide and in the magnitude of several tens of percentage points, the spread of Pauper cards is generally higher than Standard or Modern positions. Nonetheless, and even with restricted margins, these speculations should easily generate decent profits for small bankrolls.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Ojutai Exemplars

Modern

Vengevine

EDIT: Since this article was submitted for publication, Lee Sharpe has announced the extension of MM2 draft queues through July 8th. This means that downside risk is higher, and upside potential is lower. Although the targets do not change, be sure not to over pay and to spread out purchases when establishing speculative positions in cards from MM2. Also, waiting until the end of June to target playable Modern uncommons is recommended.
Karn Liberated
Noble Hierarch
Cryptic Command
Dark Confidant
Mox Opal
Fulminator Mage
Splinter Twin
Vendilion Clique
Primeval Titan

Besides Vengevine, our selection here only includes the top Modern-playable cards reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. These are, for the most part, played as four-ofs in current Tier 1 decks and are therefore more likely to rise, or to rise faster, compared to any other potential MM2 positions. We think that these positions are unlikely to lose further value and should only increase between now and the release of the next fall set.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Arcbound Ravager
Kataki, War's Wage
Inquisition of Kozilek
Aven Mindcensor
Grove of the Burnwillows
Horizon Canopy
Tectonic Edge
Lightning Helix
Figure of Destiny
Ethersworn Canonist
Restoration Angel

We think that these positions have matured enough and shown tremendous profit in a very short period of time (for most of them). This is the right time to close these positions and to move on to MM2 opportunities with better growth expectations.

Restoration Angel is a slightly different case. After the initial price increase following the MM2 list announcement, the price dropped by ~1.3 Tix and has now been flat for the past two weeks.

Jeskai Midrange and Jeskai Control, the two main decks likely to play the Angel, are not well positioned in the current Modern metagame. This will prevent further price growth for the Angel. Moving to cards from MM2 will yield better short- to mid-term profit.

Pauper

Moment's Peace

The Odyssey common crossed the 1.5 Tix mark earlier this week and is at a 15-month high. Its price has quadrupled since we recommended buying it and this is the perfect exit opportunity.