Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of June 15^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Prices on RTR and GTC continue to tick higher in both paper and MTGO. For paper, there is no expected break in this trend as interest in Modern continues to grow while Standard is in a fallow period. Modern season will get under way in the paper PTQ system in the latter half of the summer, which will sustain interest and rising prices up to the start of the season. MTGO is a little different as the PTQ system will continue to offer a variety of formats to play.

Keep in mind though that the main factor when considering prices of these sets is that Magic Origins (ORI) will be released at the end of July. Like every major set release on MTGO, this will trigger a liquidity crunch in the digital economy, driving up the value of tix relative to cards. Selling cards in a liquidity crunch is a losing proposition, so be sure to sell off your positions in cards from these sets over the next month. Also, core set releases tend to be excellent speculative opportunities so building a supply of tix now, with an eye to deploying in August, is the best course of action.

Value continues to migrate between cards from M14 but the total set price has been flat in the past week and month. With no evidence of rising demand for cards from this set, the increase in the set price since the fall has largely been seen. Although there is little downside to holding cards from this set at current prices, there is little upside evident. Speculators should consider the opportunity cost of continuing to hold cards from this set as the release of ORI approaches.

The lone card to pay attention to in DGM is Voice of Resurgence and it continues to drift down in price. Watch for this card to sink to 20 tix or below, at which point it will be worth considering again. Prices on Modern-playable cards tend to fluctuate up and down over time and keeping tabs on the downswing for cards like this one is good preparation for establishing a position.

Theros Block & M15

These sets were largely stable in price this past week on MTGO as the interest in MM2 drafting steadily winds down. Paper prices are another story as discounting on these sets continues as rotation draws nearer. Right now, speculators should be eyeing junk mythic rares that have bottomed in price, as well as Legacy- or Modern-playable rares and mythic rares that aren't heavily played in Standard.

Exhibit A is Keranos, God of Storm which has risen 50% in the past two weeks, riding the surge of interest in Modern. The fact that JOU is a third set, and that its prime drafting period overlapped with the release of VMA, means this set is in short supply on MTGO and contributes to large price swings. The past price bottom of 10 tix should be considered a good, long-term entry point on this card if prices come down over the summer. Other Modern- or Legacy-playable cards from JOU to keep an eye on for an early bottom are Eidolon of the Great Revel and Mana Confluence.

On the other hand, Thoughtseize of THS is a staple of both Modern and Standard, so it is not up for consideration at the moment for speculators. Standard players will continue to need and use this card, keeping the price elevated. Although the rotation dip on this card will be smaller than most, lower prices are anticipated in October.

Tarkir Block

Similar to THS block, the set prices for KTK, FRF and DTK rebounded this week due to waning interest in MM2 drafting and the resultant normalization of the MTGO economy. Noticeably, KTK in paper was positive for both low and mid TCG prices. Although too early to be certain, it's possible that KTK has bottomed in paper, which would set the stage for further price increases for the MTGO version via redemption.

On a more card-specific front, last week's episode of Brainstorm Brewery featured Gerry T speaking highly of Monastery Mentor from FRF and its utility in Legacy. One doesn't have to look very far to see that this card also shows up strongly in Vintage.

Having a presence in these two formats bodes well for the long-term price of this card, in both paper and on MTGO. Combine that with the upcoming switchover to ORI drafting, as well as FRF and DTK coming off of their price bottoms this week, and this looks like an excellent long-term pickup at its current price. With a Legacy MOCS scheduled for November, and a brand new Standard format coming with the release of Battle for Zendikar, this card has close to zero downside and should be considered an excellent speculative bet.

Modern

GP Charlotte featuring Modern Constructed was held this past weekend. Michael Malone’s Elves took the trophy home and the overall results show how diverse the format is. Tier 2 decks posted strong finishes and the Top 8 decklists themselves could be considered a surprise. Ad Nauseam, Elves, and a Griselbrand-Goryo's Vengeance deck featured in the Top 8, along with more familiar faces like U/R Twin, Burn, Affinity and Abzan Collected Company. The Top 62 finishers even included a mill deck!

Splinter Twin variants were the most represented decks in Day 2 and in the Top 8. Infect, Amulet and Jund (or GBx midrange) decks were quieter than expected despite a decent number of players choosing these decks (and two 9-0 Jund lists after Day 1). Scapeshift decks are still nowhere to be seen and Blood Moon was in all decks able to cast it.

This event further pushed prices and revitalized cards not yet on everyone’s radar, including Through the Breach, Goryo's Vengeance, Chord of Calling, Ad Nauseam and Phyrexian Unlife, as well as making a new star of Nourishing Shoal.

Aside from the Lantern Mill deck, none of the decks mentioned above are completely new to this format. Prices have jumped in reaction to these results but speculators should not forget that high prices triggered by spikes are unlikely to sustain themselves, even in the short term. Selling cards that have benefited from this past weekend’s GP result is advisable.

Modern Master 2015 drafts have been extended to July 8^th from the initial end date of June 17^th. This announcement will delay the expected price rebound and will accentuate the price drop for uncommons (mostly Remand and Dismember) and some of the cheaper, less-in-demand rares. The whole MM2 set price has been relatively flat for about two weeks now, but delaying further MM2 purchases until the end of this week is recommended in order to get better buying prices.

Finally, Modern Festival preliminaries start next week, June 24^th. This one-week event should be the near-term peak for Modern demand. For speculators, this will be a good time to sell Modern positions that have been growing for several weeks now.

Legacy & Vintage

Again this week, nothing has changed with these two formats. Tempest Remastered is the only place to see some price action. Propelled by its top five most expensive cards, the set has established a slow upward trend for its overall price. Wasteland is currently over 70 Tix and it looks like the desired effect to decrease the price of a playset of Wasteland is slowly failing as the price converges to its pre-TPR price.

Pauper

The Pauper metagame continues to evolve and with it prices keep swinging up and down, although not necessarily accordingly. Familiars, Stompy and Burn are the most popular decks these days. Pauper doesn’t have the impressive price variations and heights of Modern but opportunities are available for speculators willing to closely monitor price fluctuations.

Sunscape Familiar is up nicely but Snap is down by 1 tix since the release of MM2. Mono-Black has decreased in popularity and Chittering Rat almost dropped to its all-time floor thus presenting a decent buying opportunity.

Seat of the Synod has also hit a low point this week and is an interesting card to consider for Pauper speculators. Kiln Fiend is now a card to watch as this common crossed the 1 tix bar recently, rising from the being a bulk common.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Monastery Mentor

The Mentor has proven to be a playable creature in pretty much all formats from Standard to Vintage but it hasn't made a splash--yet. Tarkir block cards will soon start rising as we are approaching Standard rotation. We are confident that Monastery Mentor is a good buying opportunity and that it could be in the upper 10s Tix by next October.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Scalding Tarn

Of all the five ZEN fetchlands, Scalding Tarn's growth has been uninterrupted since late April. Its price is now very close to its pre-KTK price. Although Modern events are to come online we think additional growth of the most popular of the ZEN Fetchlands is rather limited and we therefore recommend selling it.

On the other hand, the other ZEN Fetchlands have declined a little bit since the release of MM2 but we think they will have a good chance to rebound with the Modern Festival and the Modern MOCS coming up.