Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of June 22^nd, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

The player base on MTGO is fickle. They are willing to move in and out of cards much more so than in paper. This leads to profitable price movements on many Modern cards that speculators can take advantage of. When demand for singles is still high, it's time for speculators to sell their cards in advance of the player base.

The recent uptrend in Modern prices will not continue indefinitely as players will tire of Modern or just need tix to enter the Magic Origins (ORI) release queues. Whatever the motivation, the lure of playing 'for free' will cause players to sell their cards to fund further MTGO play. Be sure to get out in front of this tendency and sell down Modern cards that have moved up in price over the past two months.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Check out the price of the top two mythic rares from RTR. Sphinx's Revelation is the most expensive, which is no surprise. This card was a pillar of Standard while it was legal in that format so the price memory alone points to a high price. It's also playable in Modern though base blue-white decks are at an ebb right now. Sphinx's Revelation has advanced from under 10 tix to just under 20 tix, nearly doubling up since rotating out of Standard.

Next up is Jace, Architect of Thought, which has a similar story, though with an overall smaller impact on Standard. Looking at the price history, this version of Jace has advanced from about 3 tix to 15 tix, quintupling since it rotated out of Standard.

On the other side of the ledger, there's Isperia, Supreme Judge which has drifted below 1 tix. As well, there are a bunch of RTR mythics that have basically had flat prices since rotating.

The takeaway is that Modern-playable mythic rares from large sets should be the first target, and then a selection of the rest of the junk mythic rares can also be purchased. Trying to predict exactly which card will see the biggest percentage gain is not easy. In the case of RTR, it's a surprise in hindsight to see a fringe Modern-playable planeswalker that also had a duel deck printing as the top pick.

The lone card to pay attention to in DGM continues to be Voice of Resurgence--and the price continues to soften, with copies available for under 25 tix. If this card got down to 16 to 17 tix sometime over the next six months, it would be a snap buy. It has hit this level twice before; first after rotating out of Standard, and then with the banning of Birthing Pod.

With a clear floor established for when this card is being heavily sold, setting our sights slightly higher is necessary as that type of selling is unlikely to crop up again. 18 tix is a reasonable price target on the downside but with the current high level of interest in Modern, the Fall will be the next window where it might reach that price.

Theros Block & M15

These sets have seen their prices stabilize in recent weeks, running counter to the downward trend observed in paper. Look for each of these sets to resume the downward trend in the coming weeks. If there are still Standard-playable cards in these sets in your portfolio, take a moment to prune these positions during this temporary bounce.

Leading this counter-trend is Keranos, God of Storm which was at 10 tix just four weeks ago and now is just below its all time peak of 19 tix. The run up in this card has been impressive as it has been surprising. The rising interest in Modern Constructed is driving the demand here. If you are holding this card, selling into this strength is prudent. Demand is getting closer to a near-term peak as some Modern staples have fallen back in price in the past two weeks.

Courser of Kruphix from BNG is at an all-time low at sub 5 tix currently. The lure of low prices can be tempting for speculators, but buying this card right now would ignore the overall price trend and the three months left before rotation.

This card has demonstrated some utility in Modern in the past but it has fallen out of favor in that format more recently. It's worth keeping an eye on, but speculators should wait until the release of Battle for Zendikar before establishing a position in this card.

Tarkir Block

Drafting of the Tarkir block sets continues, which means prices still reflect a steady stream of supply coming onto the market, even though both DTK and FRF were up sharply in the past week. Once ORI is released, the supply will slow down and prices will start to seek a higher equilibrium. The recent price strength in these two sets should signal to speculators for a pause in purchases; with multiple weeks of drafting of DDF still ahead, downside risk is higher this week than it has been in a month.

In the case of last week's recommendation, Monastery Mentor has bumped up to over 10 tix. Prices in the 8 to 10 tix range are attractive entry points relative to the long-term potential of this card. Once the dust settles in the market after the release of ORI, prices in the 10 to 12 tix range for this card are expected heading into September.

Elsewhere, KTK boosters have crested back over 2 tix this week. With no fresh boosters coming onto the market from Constructed Daily Events, drafting has steadily whittled down the excess supply and prices have been inching upwards. There will be a lull in this trend during and after the release of Magic Origins as drafters move most of their attention to triple ORI drafting. In the second half of August and heading into September, drafters will drift away from ORI and pick up Tarkir block drafting again, at which point KTK boosters will peak.

The spec on KTK boosters, recommended in this column, are on track for the expected gain of 0.5 tix or higher by September. Speculators holding these boosters should look to the end of summer to whittle down their stock, just before the release of Battle for Zendikar relegates every other draft format to the back burner.

Modern

After GP Charlotte a week and a half ago, GP Copenhagen was held this past weekend featuring Modern Constructed. As a proof of the well-balanced format that Modern is, the Top 8 decks of GP Copenhagen were totally different from those of GP Charlotte, with the exception of a U/R Twin deck at GP Charlotte and a Grixis Twin deck at GP Copenhagen. Beyond that, no other archetype appeared in both top 8s, and a total of 14 different decks were seen between the top 8s of the two events.

GP Copenhagen was notably marked by the presence of two slightly different Merfolk builds among the top finishers. Knocinki’s Fish version finally prevailed, a first time for Merfolk in Modern at that level of competition. An unexpected Mono-White Death and Taxes made its way to the top 8 alongside a Scapeshift deck, an archetype rarely seen these days. Of note from the top 8, Carvalho’s Jund was not running Dark Confidant. Grixis Control, Delver and Twin decks completed the top 8.

The next eight decks from the Top 16 included seven different archetypes where only an Abzan Company deck was found twice. Jacob Wilson piloted a Goryo's Vengeance deck similar to those seen at GP Charlotte to an 11^th place finish, confirming the potential of this new version of the deck which features Nourishing Shoal. Lastly, a Living End deck finished 16^th, an archetype that hasn't made a splash in a while.

The popularity of the Amulet Bloom deck seems in decline and the deck hasn't shown consistent results since Chris Van Meter's performance three weeks ago during the SCG Invitational. Consequently key cards of the deck are losing ground, namely Azusa, Lost but Seeking,  Summoner's Pact and Amulet of Vigor.

This week speculators who were holding some of the Merfolk cards such as Master of the Pearl Trident, Wanderwine Hub, Silvergill Adept and Merrow Reejerey should strongly consider selling these cards this week. Merfolk is a perennial sub tier-1 Modern deck, so any price increase tied to high level event results should be sold into as these prices won’t sustain themselves.

Results from MTGO Daily Events can also trigger price hikes. This past Saturday, MTGO user Spokes posted a 4-0 record with a blue-white deck that could be considered a descendant of the Eggs deck. Despite a very limited popularity, cards such as Open the Vault, Reshape, Krark-Clan Ironworks and Faith's Reward have seen their price multiplied by four or five in about a month.

Modern Masters 2015 drafts will run for two more weeks from today. Prices are stable on average, but several Modern staples reprinted in MM2 have continued their decline in the past two weeks. With the Modern Festival debuting today on MTGO, speculators should strongly consider completing their portfolio this week with any Modern staples from MM2. Virtually all Modern-playable cards from MM2 represent a good buying opportunity at this point. Some MM2 mythics have fallen below a 2-Tix value, which is an extremely low price. The original prints of these cards were once over 15 Tix and those cards certainly represent very safe investments with tremendous upside with a mid- to long-term outlook.

Legacy & Vintage

Nothing really changed in the Vintage and Legacy landscape. Legacy staples such as Force of Will, the dual lands and Jace, the Mind Sculptor are flat or slightly declining on average.

On the buy low side of things, Infernal Tutor recently declined to 25 tix before rebounding to 28 tix in the past few days. This card benefited from the release of VMA, rising sharply and hitting 50 Tix last January. What this card has going for it is being lightly printed on MTGO and appearing as a four-of in Legacy Storm decks. Without any reprint on the horizon this card is primed for further price increases if you maintain an outlook to the Legacy MOCS next November.

Pauper

The Pauper metagame hasn’t changed much this week, according to results reported at Mtggoldfish. Speculators eager to find good opportunities may have to search through the daily and weekly movers & shakers as well as checking the price of Pauper staples. While many prices are stable every week, there are positions worth considering.

Used as examples and at their lowest about ten days ago, Seat of the Synod and Chittering Rat have reversed the trend and are up by more than 100% this week.

Although reprinted in Vintage Masters, the Mercadian Masques version of Gush hasn’t moved much from the 1 tix mark for the past year and has been on the rise for the past month, if only slightly. Meanwhile the VMA version is priced closer to bulk. The price of these two versions will tend to converge over time.

Careful Study is a card that doesn’t really see play in Pauper and is rarely seen in Legacy. However, Odyssey cards are limited in quantity on MTGO due to being one of the earliest in print sets. When a common like Careful Study reaches a three-year low, speculators with smaller bankrolls should consider this speculative opportunity.

Finally, as a common printed only in Mirrodin, Molten Rain holds a lot of value for its Modern and, to a lesser extent, Pauper applications. With a price ceiling of 2.5 tix, Molten Rain is tanking a bit these days due to the decreasing appeal of the Amulet Bloom deck. If it reaches 1 tix, this card would definitely be a good pick up.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Modern

Hurkyl's Recall
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Leyline of Sanctity
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Remand
Dismember
Tezzeret the Seeker
Iona, Shield of Emeria
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
Wilt-Leaf Liege
Mutagenic Growth
Spellskite
Daybreak Coronet
Eye of Ugin

Legacy and Vintage

Infernal Tutor

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Sphinx's Revelation
Phantasmal Image
Leyline of the Void
Through the Breach
Blood Moon
Summoner's Pact
Glen Elendra Archmage
Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
Arid Mesa
Thrun, the Last Troll
Chalice of the Void

With the exception of Summoner's Pact, all these Modern positions have nicely increased in price over the past month and a half. Approaching the peak of demand for Modern, we think the period is close to ideal to sell these positions to secure profit.

With the decline of popularity of Amulet Bloom decks, the optimal window to sell the green pact was missed and it's probably headed to its previous floor around 1 tix with no short-term guarantee of rebound. We recommend selling it now to prevent further losses.