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Insider: Time to Move on Modern

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With the release of Modern Masters 2015, many were hopeful for a cheaper barrier to entry into the Modern format. Some speculated things as wild as $100 Tarmogoyfs. Reality has set in, and while most regular rares have dropped in value, we're back to expecting rising prices for the Modern format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

Aggressive retailers have kept cheap copies off the market with high buylist prices, and now that we've passed Modern weekend we can expect additional supply to have a minimal impact on the market. Further, non-Modern Masters singles have made significant gains in the short term, which we can expect to stick unless a real threat of reprint looms, which could be as far off as 2017 for a card like Blood Moon. If you're looking to play those, I sure hope that you've already invested in a set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blood Moon

Even Standard-legal Modern cards are spiking. Everybody is already aware that we can expect little if any dip in price on Thoughtseize and fetchlands when they rotate, but the recent spike in Kolaghan's Command came sooner than I would have predicted.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kolaghan's Command

Today marks the first SCG Invitational featuring the Modern format, and as such we can expect demand to be generated by well performing cards. The upcoming change to PPTQs which will now feature Modern seasons will also serve to increase demand. There are still a number of underpriced cards in Modern, though the window to profitably act on them is closing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Confidant

Bob hasn't been hot for a while, but that's changing. GerryT is only one of a number of pros taking the position that Jund is the best version of The Rock in Modern right now. Bob saw a dip with an MM2 reprint, but the card is about to see a real increase in demand. Especially if Gerry spikes Columbus with the Jund deck he's been streaming. The buyin is high, but the potential is definitely there.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abrupt Decay

Speaking of The Rock, Abrupt Decay has been slowly creeping up in value, to the surprise of no one. I could definitely see this being reprinted in some kind of Modern supplementary product, so I'm not sure how much I like this as a spec.

That said, it will only gain value until such a thing happens. If you expect to play The Rock in Modern anytime soon and you're short a set, get these now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch

Here's a card that saw a dip with its reprint like Bob, but unlike Bob was more relevant before its reprinting. With Abzan and Infect still being very real decks, now is a great time to move in on Hierarchs. They're still expensive, but as we all have seen there is plenty of room to grow.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spell Snare

Snapcaster Mage is the best card in Modern. You might disagree with the absolute nature of this statement, but you're delusional if you can't see that Tiago is of a very high power level and is a card that wins games.

Snapcaster's power is one of many reasons that Spell Snare is so great right now. It hits Snaps, Goyf, Bob, Eidolon of the Great Revel, and many other format staples. And it happens to pair very well with your own Snapcasters. I am playing four of these in Columbus, and I can't imagine that I'll be the only one.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Tasigur is awesome, and shortly after release commanded a ten-dollar price tag. The price has declined since then, but with Modern being in the limelight and less Fate Reforged being opened than ever I expect the price here to take off.

Dodging Abrupt Decay and Lightning Bolt while still functionally costing one is just absurd, and the biggest threat to Tasigur's price ceiling would be a Modern banning. I don't see this as a realistic option and I strongly recommend moving in on Tasigur.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought Scour

And then there's the card that enables turn-two Tasigurs. If something as bad as Mishra's Bauble can spike for being "good with delve," then why can't we see a slight price bump in a card that's a four-of in the Delver deck starting to be considered by some as the best deck in Modern?

It already buylists for a quarter, and I assure you that plenty of copies can be found for that or less. Acquire every copy you can. This card is great and can easily be moved for $1 on tournament floors.

~

My best advice for speculating on Modern is to pay lots of attention this weekend. You can rest assured that we will see a spike or two. From there it's only a matter of finding out what will logically spike next. There's still plenty of money to be made on Modern staples. It's only a matter of time.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

2 thoughts on “Insider: Time to Move on Modern

    1. Thanks! My one loss in Modern was to consecutive games of mulling to one-landers and bricking. Deck was great all weekend! It can be difficult to pilot optimally and I made a few missteps, but it’s much better than the average Modern deck.

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