Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
...Well, maybe not 1,000 exactly but there are certainly a lot of combos floating around.
I've spent the past two weeks completely focused on the Modern format in preparation for the SCG Modern Open and Modern Grand Prix Charlotte, and now that it is all said and done I've reached one very definitive realization: Modern is all about the combo decks.
If you haven't already checked out the coverage from the Top 8 of the event: Elves, Twin, U/R Affinity, Ad Nauseam, Goryo's Vengeance, Abzan Company, U/R Twin, and Burn all made it.
Basically, all "combo" decks. While Affinity and Burn may not technically be combo decks in the purist sense they are both similar to combo in that they are fast, linear, non interactive decks. I don't actually think it too much of a stretch to consider Modern Affinity or Burn to be "combo" decks.
Anyways, the Modern is all about being fast, ending the game, and trying to be as non-interactive as possible.
My Take on Affinity
I actually got a chance to play in Grand Prix Charlotte and finished in the money with a record of 10-4-1. My weapon of choice for this event (the same weapon of choice I seem to always gravitate back to) was Affinity.
Here is the list that I played:
Affinity by Brian Demars (121st at GP Charlotte)
If I played the deck again (and I'm sure I would) I would cut the two maindeck Master of Etherium for two Etched Champions. I would also cut the Welding Jar for a second Spellskite.
After playing a bunch, I was pretty surprised how often I was put into the aggro-control role by faster, more deadly combo decks. I wanted to board in more colored spells but I think there is a cap to how many one can reasonably bring in. I don't need my three-drop fatty to be a colored spell when there is a perfectly good alternate in Champion.
In the sideboard I would have packed more combo hate if I had the option to do it over again. I would scrap the Illness in the Ranks, Thoughtseize and Etched Champion, and add two copies of Torpor Orb and a Relic of Progenitus.
Linear Combo Everywhere
My pairings for the tournament also kind of reflect a combo-oriented metagame: 3 UWx Control decks, 1 Amulet Bloom, 5 Splinter Twin, and 4 Burn.
The most obnoxious thing that happened to me all day was as follows. My opponent plays Glimmerpost and Amulet of Vigor. On turn two he plays a second Amulet of Vigor and a bounce land (untapping it twice to make four mana). He Summoner's Pacts for Azusa, Lost but Seeking and replays the bounce land.
In response to the untap trigger I Galvanic Blast the Azusa thinking that he will be done, unable to pay for his pact, and I win... Right? Wrong. He Pact of Negations my Galvanic Blast and kills me...
So, turn two kill with a counterspell back up, you say? Welcome to Modern.
You know it is a rough world when even the Junk midrange decks go infinite...
I'm not going to grumble too much about the format being "this" or "that" or wishing it was one way or another. Personally, I don't enjoy a format where combo is prevalent but I don't get to ban the cards. I will say that there were a lot of people complaining about the feel of the format at the event and based upon the speed of some of the most powerful decks I think that it is likely that we will see some DCI action in June.
I will be shocked if this card doesn't get banned. After a very strong showing two weeks ago at the Invitational it didn't make Top 8 this time around. I still think the calm, casual turn-two kills this deck can produce are too much.
Another easy-peasy turn-two combo win that actually did have a breakout at the Grand Prix.
My line of thinking is that if the DCI is actually serious about Modern being a turn-four format then these two decks simply should not exist.
If I would have had the cards for one of these two decks I probably would have played them instead of Affinity at the event. The problem was that since RIW burned down and I couldn't borrow cards, and I didn't want to buy into either of these decks for fear they get banned next month.
It is also interesting that these two decks didn't see any major reprints in Modern Masters 2015 which might imply that they were already on the ban radar for WOTC.
In the Event of a Ban...
What changes if they ban the turn-two decks?
The biggest thing that would happen to the format is that "fair" decks would get a lot better. First of all, decks wouldn't need to worry about getting killed because their opponent had the audacity to cast a 2cc Sorcery on turn two (Bloom or Vengeance). Why in the world would I want to play a fair deck when something like that can happen to me?
I think one of the reasons that URx Twin is so popular is that it actually has counterspells to protect itself from some of these "oops, you're dead" fast combos.
It would certainly make Splinter Twin public enemy #1 with the other faster, more linear combo decks out of the way. I actually have no problem with Splinter Twin as a combo deck in Modern. It is a two-card combo that revolves around putting a four-cost aura on a three-cost creature. It gets broken up by any removal spells, counterspell, or Disenchant. There are multiple hate cards that break up the combo that can't be countered.
Twin is exactly the kind of combo deck that should exist in Modern. It keeps people honest in the sense that you have to play some cards to interact with it but it is also fairly easy to interact with.
I think that removal-heavy midrange decks become much better (which is a good thing) and I also think that without hyper-fast combo decks ramp style decks could come back. Right now, there is very little point in playing a ramp-combo deck like Scapeshift when Amulet Bloom can do the exact same thing but on turn two!
I wouldn't mind things slowing down a little bit. I'd like to enjoy my games and have them potentially last longer than five turns.
Five Cards That Get Better
It would be hard for Scapeshift to be worse in the metagame than it is right now. The old adage of "don't play a bad something else" certainly applies here.
However, if the competing combo decks stop killing several turns faster I could see Scapeshift once again becoming a solid metagame force as it was a year or so ago.
Unfortunately, Scapeshifts are still really expensive for no good reason. So, I'm actually going to say that the silver bullet card to try and pick up is:
These can be easily had for a couple of bucks a piece which seems about as low as a solid card from an older set can realistically be. I like the idea of trading for these right now. I don't think they can really go down and there is some real upside.
I know it seems kind of weird to pick out Decay as a card to pick up when it just had a spike recently, but I'm pretty high on this card. I think the ceiling is still quite a ways up and I'm still happy to trade for this card at $16 from players.
If faster combo decks go away Twin really does become the best combo deck in the format. If that is the case, Abrupt Decay is the best answer. I also argue that BGx decks get much better without some of these speedy linear killers around. It all checks out.
Kind of a weird speculation target because it is also expensive--but for good reason; the card is absolute gasoline.
It is a cornerstone of both Infect and Affinity, which would tend to get a lot better if the turn two decks didn't exist. I especially think that Infect would get a lot better as it is a pretty solid turn-three deck. It would probably be left as the fastest deck in the format.
Inkmoth is a really unique and powerful card. I don't see them going down anytime soon and I think they still have room to grow. Also, the card is from a bad set.
I love this card as a pickup right now. First of all, it is simply an awesome Magic card. It provides a ton of value and has really cute synergies with persist creatures.
In a world where things are more grindy this card becomes a huge game in G/B mirrors. The card also has the sick casual appeal. I'm buying in on this card right now for sure.
For how good this card is it is simply too cheap right now. There is also a very real chance that it will be good in Standard at some point during its lifetime. When new stuff gets printed and a bunch of the other cards rotate out there is a shot that it will be a player.
It is already Modern-playable in a midrange combo deck that gets smoked by the super fast decks. Abzan Company would be a big winner if the turn-two decks were to go away. So, I really like this card as something to pick up right now.
There is the "where we are right now" and the speculative "what might happen in the future" when it comes to assessing which cards will be in demand. I've sort of laid out a scenario to be thinking about where some drastic changes could and might occur in Modern and what might get better were those changes to come to light.
Generally speaking, I like the idea of trading for any cards that would get better if some change were made to the banned list to eliminate turn-two combo decks.
“It is also interesting that these two decks didn’t see any major reprints in Modern Masters 2015 which might imply that they were already on the ban radar for WOTC.”
Primeval Titan and all of the bouncelands don’t count as “major reprints”?
Not the specific cards in question: “amulet” or “Bloom.” The Bounce lands are there for limited and Titan is a card that goes into a bunch of different decks.