Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of July 6^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

The price of a set of RTR is drifting down with the end of redemption, with the most expensive mythic rares of the set all seeing their price peaks in the past. Interest in Modern continues to run high though, as the price of shocklands like Steam Vents stays elevated.

Anticipate lower prices with the release of Magic Origins (ORI) and a shift in focus to the new draft format and a shaken up Standard. The lure of one more (tix-entry only) release event will tempt some players to sell their Modern decks.

With continued price support from redemption, both GTC and M14 saw price increases this week. Domri Rade is slowly heading back to 5 tix, even though this card is seldom played in Modern these days.

Mutavault has plateaued after the initial price increase due to the reprint of Goblin Piledriver. More increases may come but we'll have to wait for Goblin Piledriver to be released and see if its addition to Modern will make Goblins a serious contender in that format. A lot of cards are missing compared to Legacy Goblins, including Wasteland and Rishadan Port, two key cards that help disrupt the opposing deck's mana and development.

Theros Block & M15

Keranos, God of Storms of JOU continues to hit new highs, having run up from around 10 tix to now sit at 25 tix. With this and Eidolon of the Great Revel both sitting at 20+ tix and both seeing countercyclical strength due to interest from Modern and Legacy players, it's possible that rotation will not deliver a significant price decrease to these cards.

With so much value tied up in two cards from JOU, there is no doubt that junk mythic rares from this set will continue to drift lower in price over the coming months. Typically they are never played in competitive constructed formats, so junk mythic rares only get their value from being the bottleneck to redemption.

With redeemers looking at more expensive sets online than in paper, the incentive to redeem is nonexistent. Only players looking for sets to play with will be redeeming JOU. BNG will be in a similar situation, albeit with higher online supply and fewer constructed staples.

The two large sets, M15 and THS, are both good candidates for future demand from redeemers. Currently though, the trend is for lower prices. At the moment, look to junk mythic rares below 0.4 tix to hold good long-term value. Otherwise prices will not bottom until rotation, so don't be too quick to target seemingly cheap cards from these sets.

Tarkir Block

The value of Khans of Tarkir keeps increasing and has almost added up 10% over the past week. The reason is simple; the preferred draft format on MTGO is DDF which doesn't include the first set of the Tarkir block.

On the other hand, and despite a price raise recorded after the release of Modern Masters 2015, Dragons of Tarkir and Fate Reforged's value remain mostly flat for the past two to three weeks. Another small price drop is however to expect when ORI hits MTGO. This mean a new opportunity to buy into these two sets.

Monastery Mentor and Dig Through Time greatly benefit after Legacy GP Lille and another Miracles-only finale. The mentor jumped by about 3 Tix over the weekend while the delve instant got back to the 3-4 Tix price range. We mentioned and recommended Mentor a month ago. This creature is not a powerhouse yet in Standard and is barely played in Modern. However it would only take a Standard rotation and a novel deck tech in Modern to push a guy playable in all formats of Magic way over 15 Tix.

Lastly, KTK boosters have gained an additional 0.30 Tix since last week. 2.5 Tix would be a great selling price in advance of ORI, but a price dip is expected during that set's release events. After release events wind down in August, prices will resume their uptrend into September. A price peak in the 2.6 to 2.8 tix range would be a reasonable target at this point, and would represent a great return on the recommended buy-in price of 1.4 to 1.5 tix from two months ago.

Magic Origins

The Magic Origins list is now entirely up. Unlike paper Magic with pre-sales and pre-orders, no early speculation is possible on MTGO. At best, speculators can place their bets on Standard or Modern cards that potentially benefit from new and reprinted ORI cards. The action in the MTGO market will take place in the month following the online release of the set while release events pour a large quantity of supply into the market.

Modern

Modern Masters 2015 draft events and the availability of MM2 boosters through the official MTGO store end this Wednesday. With these the bulk of supply from MM2 comes to an end. The overall MM2 set value has been remarkably stable over the past four weeks and merely fluctuated around a 200 Tix total set value. With the exception of Fulminator Mage, which nearly doubled in price since the end of May, all of the top mythics and rares have mirrored the whole set trend and have been fairly stable so far.

We recommended acquiring several MM2 positions in previous MTGO Market Reports and if you haven't done it yet now is probably the right time to buy discounted Modern staples. Without a continuing supply from drafters and even without Redemption to act as a floor for prices, the natural and cyclical demand from Modern players and/or speculators will start pulling prices up.

Based on MMA price history, most prices are likely to trend up, at least until October and the release of Battle for Zendikar. The most demanded mythics and rares such as Mox Opal, Tarmogoyf, Karn Liberated, Dark Confidant, Fulminator Mage, Cryptic Command, Noble Hierarch and Spellskite for instance have a good chance to double in price in the following three and half months.

However this trend may not be as marked, or simply not present at all, for more marginal MM2 Modern staples. Gifts Ungiven, Pact of Negation and Summoner's Pact for instance had a flatter price fluctuation after the release of MMA and really took off only months later. Speculators should be ready to be more patient with MM2 cards such as Daybreak Coronet, Surgical Extraction and Wilt-Leaf Liege for examples.

On a different topic, Modern price hikes may come to an halt as the Modern Festival and the Modern MOCS season came to an end, and as there's one more week (from July 15th to July 18th) of MTGO Modern PTQs. With Modern prices probably coming to a local high before ORI release events, speculators should consider selling the Modern positions that have seen a decent increase over the past few months.

Modern positions that haven't moved much since April or May are probably worth holding though--they are unlikely to lose significant value over the summer. Nonetheless, after some price drops due to the release Magic Origins, Modern prices are likely to rebound until the release of BFZ.

Legacy & Vintage

GP Lille featuring Legacy Constructed was held this weekend. Mirroring GP Kyoto last April, two Miracles decks battled for the title in the finale again last weekend.

On the one hand, Sensei's Divining Top was on many people’s mind as the next card to ban in Legacy. On the other hand, six Monastery Mentors were in the Top 8 decklists, all of them in the decks of the two finalists.

Concerns about the Top were not related to power level but rather the boring effect for the audience and lengthy games. Counterbalance would probably be directly affected by a ban of Top. Although chances of a ban of Sensei's Divining Top are not high, the Coldsnap blue enchantment is currently in the neighborhood of 17 Tix and speculators or players holding some copies of Counterbalance may want to consider selling it before the next B&R list announcement, this Monday.

Monastery Mentor jumped by 15-20% over the weekend and confirmed its strong potential. The card is very special as it shined in Legacy and Vintage and not so much in Standard and Modern, yet.

Its price is likely to deflate in the coming days as a performance in Legacy is not enough to support the price of a currently drafted mythic. However, the online release Magic Origins might be the last occasion to grab copies of this monk under 9 Tix, whether it is for Legacy, Vintage, Modern or Standard purposes, as FRF supply will start drying up passed July.

Pauper

The Pauper format continues to show signs of a fairly dynamic format, which is good both for players and speculators. Top decks vary frequently and with this prices fluctuate up and down constantly. New cards emerge regularly as new potential targets for Pauper speculations.

As an example, Searing Blaze, a long-time bulk-priced common from Worldwake, spiked over 0.5 Tix three times since May. Such a card could now be considered a very decent speculative target for speculators with a small bankroll when its price drops again to 0.1 Tix , likely in the next few days.

With a rise in popularity of common delve creatures, including frontrunner Gurmag Angler, Mental Note has definitely entered the world of pricey commons and has recently hit 2 Tix. Considering supply of Mental Note, printed in Judgment only, is probably very low this card may rapidly grow to even higher prices. A comeback around 1 Tix would certainly represent a great buying opportunity.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

None

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

None