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Insider: Origins Week One

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Having SCG Opens before the Pro Tour for a new set is really interesting. You could already have capitalized from speccing on a couple Origins cards and the set hasn't even been out for two weeks! An Open isn't going to set the pace for the Standard metagame with anywhere near the magnitude of a Pro Tour, but we certainly learned things from SCG Chicago.

If we look at the finals, there's not much to be gleaned about the impact of Origins. Logan Mize was mulliganed his way out of a trophy in a matchup that's incredibly favorable with a deck that hasn't been updated since Fate Reforged, and our winner had updates that weren't even all good!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sword of the Animist

Don't play Tuan's Sword of the Animist. His win was indicative of G/r Devotion being great, with the significant upgrade being Gaea's Revenge. While Gaea's Revenge is great, and not even crazy as a four-of out of the sideboard, there's not really money to be made on a reprinted sideboard card like this.

Alternatively, Whisperwood Elemental has to be approaching its price floor. This card is just the best thing to be doing on five with big mana decks and matchs up either evenly or favorably against Languish, which is a great place to be.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Whisperwood Elemental

Neither Tuan's winning list or Chris Anderson's fourth place list featured Nissa, Vastwood Seer, but Ross Merriam was sporting two in third place. I'd be curious to see if Ross would run them back or if Chris would give them a try, and both questions are potentially answered by their Top 8 interviews:

What card from Magic Origins impressed you the most this weekend?

Ross: "Nissa, Vastwood Seer and Languish."

Chris: "The flip walkers are very strong. Especially Jace."

Both players seem to express interest in the power level of Nissa, and both are generally considered to be people who know what they're talking about. Nissa is already quite expensive, but strong results and being held in high regard by good players is a good sign of at least a short-term hold. A strong PT performance could even result in some monetary gains for Nissa.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Vastwood Seer

Since I've only talked about the green deck and have already mentioned Languish twice, it's probably time to rap about the new sweeper in town. Languish wasn't necessarily as dominant as I expected in Chicago, with Whisperwood Elemental certainly being somewhat to blame, but its presence was certainly felt.

We only saw three copies in the Top 8, but they were all in Bruce Edelman's Abzan Control deck, which he didn't lose a match with until round 14. It was an impressive run, and Languish undoubtedly played a part.

Abzan Control

Creatures

2 Den Protector
4 Siege Rhino
4 Courser of Kruphix
3 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Spells

3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
4 Abzan Charm
4 Hero's Downfall
1 Ultimate Price
3 Languish
4 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Forest
1 Plains
2 Caves of Koilos
2 Llanowar Wastes
4 Sandsteppe Citadel
4 Temple of Malady
4 Temple of Silence
4 Windswept Heath
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Sideboard

2 Arashin Cleric
3 Fleecemane Lion
2 Dromoka's Command
2 Ultimate Price
1 Utter End
1 Nissa, Worldwaker
1 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Crux of Fate
1 Duress

There's nothing fancy here. Languish kills our Coursers, but both cards are great and cutting one in favor of the other just results in cutting one of our best spells, so we take a small hit on synergy to maximize power. This is nothing new for these goodstuff rock decks.

Languish saw a brief, somewhat crazy, spike leading up to Chicago, passing $10 in market price before getting back down to a more realistic $8. It's hard to imagine Languish really leaving the $6-8 range. It's a good place to park value and an awesome card to keep stocked in your binder, but not one that's great to dump a lot of cash into.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Languish

While Languish's impact was felt, the card that truly broke out in Chicago was Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. Jace was highlighted in several Jeskai lists, as well as Matthew Tickal's Five-Color Rally deck.

Five-Color Rally

Creatures

3 Deathmist Raptor
2 Den Protector
4 Elvish Mystic
3 Grim Haruspex
2 Mogis's Marauder
4 Nantuko Husk
4 Satyr Wayfinder
3 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
1 Liliana, Heretical Healer

Spells

2 Chord of Calling
4 Rally the Ancestors
4 Gather the Pack

Lands

2 Forest
1 Plains
1 Frontier Bivouac
4 Mana Confluence
1 Mystic Monastery
3 Opulent Palace
2 Sandsteppe Citadel
3 Windswept Heath
2 Yavimaya Coast
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Sideboard

4 Cleric of the Forward Order
1 Den Protector
1 Hidden Dragonslayer
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Stratus Dancer
2 Hero's Downfall
2 Kolaghan's Command
3 Thoughtseize

My initial look at Jace had me thinking the best home for him was Jeskai Ascendancy Combo. In Chicago, he was featured in both Jeskai Ascendancy decks, and this combo deck. So I was kind of wrong. Anyway, Jace does a lot of work in this deck. He helps you draw specific cards, sets up your graveyard and flashes back a Rally the Ancestors if that's the only way you can find it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

A strong PT performance could certainly lead to a higher price tag for Jace, and I could definitely see that happening. Just not in this deck. There are elements missing here, there are a lot of things that have to go right for this deck, and even if they do the deck is difficult to pilot. I've been talking to Tickal about the deck all week, and we agree that at the end of the day the deck is very cool, but is ultimately of a medium power level.

Meanwhile, Kevin McLesky presented us with an amazing Jace deck:

Jeskai Tokens

Creatures

4 Seeker of the Way
4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Spells

4 Jeskai Ascendancy
2 Lightning Strike
2 Ojutai's Command
3 Raise the Alarm
1 Secure the Wastes
4 Stoke the Flames
3 Wild Slash
1 Dragon Fodder
4 Hordeling Outburst
4 Treasure Cruise

Lands

2 Island
2 Mountain
1 Plains
3 Battlefield Forge
3 Flooded Strand
4 Mystic Monastery
3 Shivan Reef
2 Temple of Epiphany
4 Temple of Triumph

Sideboard

3 Sphinx's Tutelage
4 Disdainful Stroke
2 Negate
2 Valorous Stance
1 Dragonlord Ojutai
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Roast

Jace combines with Jeskai Ascendancy to help you sculpt your hand beautifully, and all that looting makes running four Treasure Cruise in your Standard deck not only viable, but fantastic. I'd like to find a way to fit the fourth Flooded Strand and maybe a fifth fetch in, but that's pretty minor.

A card to watch in this deck, and one that Gerry Thompson is big on, is Ojutai's Command. Having good two-drops to recur makes all four modes on Ojutai's Command relevant, and when that's the case the card is very good. It's the number two traded card on Pucatrade for the past month, which is worth paying attention to. They're super cheap right now, and could easily jump to $3-5 in the coming weeks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ojutai's Command

The last two cards of interest from Origins are Thopter Spy Network and Hangarback Walker. Here's why:

Hoognithopter

Creatures

4 Hangarback Walker

Spells

3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
2 Thopter Spy Network
3 Artificer's Epiphany
3 Clash of Wills
4 Dig Through Time
1 Disdainful Stroke
4 Dissolve
1 Last Breath
2 Valorous Stance
3 End Hostilities
2 Swift Reckoning

Lands

3 Darksteel Citadel
6 Island
2 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Mystic Monastery
1 Polluted Delta
1 Radiant Fountain
4 Temple of Enlightenment
4 Tranquil Cove

Sideboard

1 Perilous Vault
1 Hidden Dragonslayer
2 Stratus Dancer
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Fated Retribution
3 Last Breath
2 Negate
1 Raise the Alarm
1 Valorous Stance
2 Displacement Wave

Spy Network was picking up leading into the event, and now is over $3 on TCG low. Where the card once looked like a different Bident of Thassa, now we have seen that Thopter Spy Network is capable of taking over games on its own. I don't think we'll see it climb much over $4, but it's obviously a good one to track.

Alternatively, Hangarback Walker broke out entirely because of Hoogland's deck and has a lot more potential going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hangarback Walker

Hangarback Walker has looked great every time that I've seen it in play, and I believe we've only started to scratch the surface on this one. It's only a thought kicking around in my head right now, but I can't help but think that Hangarback Walker would make very good friends with Jeskai Ascendancy. This card will see play in several decks, and being an artifact printed once in a core set bodes well for its price tag while it's in Standard.

The buy-in has certainly increased, but you should minimally own a set of this card if you're a Standard player. Buying in is costly at this point, but I love this as a trade target, especially with so many players still not believing in the card.

The last card that I want to talk about comes from a lower profile tournament. Check out the list that Ali Aintrazi posted on TCGPlayer this week:

Dimir Demonic Pact

Creatures

4 Erebos's Titan
4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Spells

1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
3 Bile Blight
2 Dark Petition
4 Demonic Pact
4 Disperse
3 Hero's Downfall
1 Languish
2 Read the Bones
4 Thoughtseize
2 Void Snare

Lands

2 Bloodstained Mire
4 Dismal Backwater
1 Island
4 Polluted Delta
9 Swamp
4 Temple of Deceit
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Sideboard

3 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
3 Drown in Sorrow
3 Fleshbag Marauder
1 Liliana Vess
2 Liliana, Heretical Healer
1 Murderous Cut
2 Negate

People seem to be impressed by Demonic Pact from initial testing. Aintrazi's list is far from polished with not even a single copy of Dig Through Time, and he still thinks the deck is great! He also speaks highly of Erebos's Titan, but I think the target here is the Pact due to the fact that it also fits into constellation decks and decks with Dromoka's Command.

Demonic Pact has a very low buy-in for a mythic, and could easily triple or quadruple in price with a strong PT finish. The most noteworthy thing about Pact is that it shows up as a four-of in every list that it appears in. Part of this could have to do with the fact that multiple copies can just end the game with the burn mode before you have to worry about bouncing one, which is why creatures like Erebos's Titan play so well in this kind of deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Demonic Pact

Leading up to PT Origins, it seems clear that Abzan Control and G/r Devotion are the two best decks in Standard. Could a new strategy rise up to the challenge and take over the format? I have every reason to believe that one can and will.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

4 thoughts on “Insider: Origins Week One

  1. Without any sort of collaboration – I think you and I both wrote a very similar subject matter for the dialogue going into PT!

    We even listed the exact same cards to watch as well!

    Great minds think alike it seems. Good article Ryan.

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