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If you were a QS Insider, you had the benefit of a lot of research going into this weekend. We prepared articles and emails to get you up to speed on Magic: Origins. Today, we're recapping it for Insiders who didn't see everything (as well as letting everyone else see what Insiders could get).
In the emails, check out the prices in the email pics - those were what you could buy in at when we sent. There's no truer form of accountability than sharing it all upfront.
This went out at 11:30am, a few hours before the Constructed event kicked off. We were able to get this early info out due to some confidential sources at the event. We watch a ton of coverage and surrounding media during the entire PT, a job that begins a few days before the event itself.
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Pro Tour Origins Starts Today
You can expect Standard to begin around 5pm EST / 2pm PST.
We've got our own little "thopter spy network" working the room as usual (actually, they're people, but wouldn't little drones be awesome?) and they've got some tips for us to share with Insiders. |
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Thopter Spy Network
Our source tells us that TSN is selling out with the dealers at crazy inflated prices. This card was an early winner of ORI, and it's no surprise; "BitterBident" is a powerhouse of a Magic card that does just about everything you need a Magic card to do.
Pros competing for $45,000 have no problem shelling out a bit of extra cash for these, but that doesn't mean the price will stick. $5 is a very reasonable retail price for this card, so unless it positively dominates the event, I doubt there's a ton of gas left in the tank. Even so, it's unlikely this card will trend lower in the coming months, especially once BFZ steals the spotlight from this amazing final core set. |
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Rally the Ancestors
Two important quotes about Rally:
1) From our source on the floor: "Some notable pros are on the Rally deck".
2) From our staff writer Ryan Overturf, who is competing in the Pro Tour: "Rally underperformed against non-Abzan decks in our testing. People will play it because Abzan is probably the consensus best deck, but it really struggles against anything else".
This is another card that saw a recent spike, this time from obscurity into relevance. If the deck can dominate this weekend, another small spike is not unreasonable. As I have said a dozen time on our Forums, the effect is unique, powerful, well-costed and at instant speed. It's got "broken combo enabler" written all over it. I'm curious to see if there are any good combos in Modern, but that's a story for another day.
My suggestion here is the same as Hangarback Walker; if you can snag copies for somewhere between buylist and retail, you'l do well for yourself. It's possible that the Rally decks underperform against a heavily tuned field, in which case the card could lose some steam. In that case, I'd be buying on the way down, bolstering my position with cheap copies and hoping that it can make some waves in Modern. |
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Hangarback Walker
What more is there to say about this card? QS's own Brian deMars just won 2 byes for the Vintage Championships by playing 4x in a vintage-format trial, for goodness' sake! The card is shaping up to be a 4-format all-star, something that's very rare these days.
You know what else is rare? Double-spikes. Walker went from a dollar rare to $5 within a short span, and then shot up to $10. It's entirely possible that we see an insane third spike to $15 if this card is truly as dominant as it is shaping up to be. It's really, really hard to say "buy in at $10", but if you can find an LGS in your area that's selling them for anything less, you go get them. |
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Mono Red Burn
We're told that burn cards are "moving" steadily, though without the same apparent sense of urgency as the Thopter cards. Exquisite Firecraft is one of the cards they're talking about, but it's hard to see it gaining a whole lot above $4.25 unless, once again, it proceeds to dominate the event.
Burn is a great deck to bring to a new metagame, as it's matchups are generally baseline good and it adheres to the principle of "no wrong threats, only wrong answers". There isn't really a "right" answer to Firecraft; the solution certainly is not Clash of Wills or anything of its ilk. Other cards like Zurgo Bellstriker and Atarka's Command might generate some interest as well, but Burn is probably not going to present too many opportunities for gains (only headaches for opponents). |
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Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
Sometimes other peoples' thoughts come to me. It's generally via email or text message, and usually about Magic cards. I lead a simple life.
The thought that appeared in my inbox this morning was a confirmation that Jace is still strong at the Pro Tour. He's become the marquee card of Origins, and I must say that I totally mis-evaluated him at first glance. Sorry, bud.
Anyway, word on the floor is that yes, Jace is a ridiculously powerful, possibly format-defining, two-drop. Currently retailing for $40, with a fairly pedestrian 38% spread, our sources think that there is still possibly room to grow here. I would NOT consider this a particularly juicy speculative target for obvious reasons, but if you intend to play with this card in the coming months, or years, it's not likely to be cheaper any time soon. |
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Here's what went out midway through Day One. I'm glad we talked about both Ghostfire Blade and Abbot, two big breakout cards. I'm also glad because I love the Wu-Tang Clan and we refer to the blade as "Liquid Swords" and the Abbot as RZA. We had not expected Abbot to rise as much as it did, but I'm glad we advised getting a playset. We're not perfect, but I'm glad we have so many eyes on this that we can get money-making information to our Insiders.
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Here's What's Going On.
We're mid-way through Day 1 of Standard.
There haven't been any surprises...yet. No one is shocked that Hangarback Walker is everywhere, or that Exquisite Firecraft is burning faces. We've got some intel coming in about who's playing what. There are no insane, omg, must-buy-now cards at the moment, but we'll let you know if anything crops up. |
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Demonic Pact
Our sources tell us that one Pascal Maynard has been sighted playing this card. It's been heralded is a powerhouse, something almost worth building around. It remains to be seen if Maynard can go the distance, but if a player of his caliber is playing with the card, it must be good.
These are a risky pickup at $5, but I could look like a fool for saying anything other than "buy" right now. Still, I am a cautious speculator; chances are that if you thought this card was good, you thought so when it came out, and during the weeks leading up to this PT. Buy in now at your own risk. It could prove to be a good bet, but I'm holding my cash until I see more results. |
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Abbot of Keral Keep
We're told that the majority of mono-red decks, and it's no surprise. It's a source of much-needed card advantage in a deck that has no other way to generate it, and it's a solid beater, especillay considering its prowess trigger.
The current price around 3.50 seems proper, unless the Top 8 is dominated by them. This is yet another example of a card that is probably worth buying if you need a playset and have yet to buy in, but it's not a juicy spec target. |
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Ghostfire Blade
It was easy to look at this card and dismiss it, but as we have all seen, Hangarback Walker changes everything. When hooking this up to artifact creatures (or Eldrazi spawn tokens, maybe?), it becomes a better Bonesplitter; that's a pretty high compliment for a 1-drop artifact.
This card has seen some gains on MTGO, but the paper price has barely budged. It's not a bad place to have some money, especially if you can get them for a quarter rather than 2 for a buck. If not for the Eldrazi in BFZ, I would be skeptical, but I think this will prove to be a very powerful weapon in the months to come. |
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UR Thopters
We're hearing that a lot of Team CFB are on this deck, which didn't surprise me in the least, since it might be the best use of Hangarback Walker in the format.
We'll let you know what else we hear on this front, but right now, just hold tight. We still have many more rounds of Standard to go, and plenty of great decks will never see the light of day due to disastrous drafting.
We'll keep you updated throughout the weekend. Have fun! |
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Of course, after Day One ends, there's still a lot of overnight trading to be had. Here's our MTGO-focused evening recap email. Also, check out Hangarback Walker's price; a $2 jump over just a few hours is significant.
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Getting Ready for Day 2
Let's see what happened in the market overnight
It's always fun to see what cards popped while we were asleep. It's not as crazy this time around as it has been in other PTs, which is good in a way; it means the market is healthy. I expect the BFZ Pro Tour to be a wild ride, so I'm glad this one has, so far, been fairly reasonable. |
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Exquisite Firecraft
Interestingly enough, this card has barely moved on paper. The buylist price ticked up by a few cents, and the retail price actually dropped down by a few cents.
That's interesting because we know this card is heavily played, meaning that a $4-$5 retail price tag is a good estimate for what staple rares from Origins ('walker aside) will sell for. I would hold copies right now, as the buylist price is too low and the spread too wide to be worth selling. If you can get $5 retail somehow, take your profits.
On MTGO, however, the story is very different. It's seen some amazing gains, rising from 1.2tix mid-week to over 6tix this morning, with about half of that increase happening in the last 24 hours. Talk about a hot card... |
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Demonic Pact
Buylist price is up by $0.40, and retail up by $0.20. Not exactly a big gain, but worth reporting. Expect this trend to continue if this card performs well this afternoon. If $5 is a fair price point for a rare staple, and this turns out to be a big player, $10 is not unreasonable to expect.
I am still cautious on this card, as I feel I will not truly understand it's power until I play some games with it. Still, if Pro Tour competitors have deemed it playable, it's probably pretty good. Unless it totally fizzles in the late rounds of Standard today, I think it's a good pickup at $5. |
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Ghostfire Blade
Little to no movement here, aside from the small bump on Magic Online. I am going to be keeping an eye on this one, as I think it's better than a 50 cent rare. |
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Hangarback Walker
Sick of this little guy yet? I'm not! I'm in love with this card! The breakout card of Origins continues to impress, with buylist prices increasing by about $4 overnight, and retail increasing about $3.
The narrow spread here is interesting, especially if you sell to Card Kingdom for store credit as I prefer to do; in that case you're actually getting 10% above TCG Mid for your card. Seems good, but there's no way I'm selling mine. |
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Abbot of Keral Keep
Buylist price hasn't moved, but the retail price is up $0.40. I would not expect the retail price to move much higher unless, once again, the card proves dominant. $4 is a fair price for a rare that sees play as a 4-of in one or two decks. Obviously do not buylist your copies at 61% spread; I won't even sell garbage rares at a spread that wide, and the Abbot is far from garbage. |
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Tragic Arrogance
QS staff writer and Pro Tour Competitor Ryan Overturf was talking about this card before the event, saying that it had outperformed expectations in playtesting. It's seen a staggering rise on MTGO, from bulk levels to parity with paper prices.
Ryan made it clear that the card is only used in 2-3 copies, and often in the sideboard, but that it is pretty clearly better than bulk. If we see a lot of these on camera, expect a paper price increase. I venture to guess that the plays we see with this card will be flashy, memorable and game-breaking, but there's no guarantee it gets any play or camera time as we move towards a Top 8. |
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| It's been relatively quiet so far, but we still have a lot of Magic to play. We'll let you know as news breaks and things change! |
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There are a number of good finance stories that come out of a robust Pro Tour. While Demonic Pact failed to T8, it was a coverage darling and got a lot of camera time. The markets responded, causing us to send this Insider email:
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Demonic Pact Is Moving
We don't know the Top 8 yet, but it's clear this card has power.
I've been talking about this card all weekend, but after watching the market for the last 2 hours, it's clear that other people besides me are finally convinced that Pact is the real deal. There are plenty of ways to not only destroy Pact, but to reset it outright, which means that you are essentially looking at a Cruel Ultimatum for 4 mana (without spending RRBBBUU...) which you can recur multiple times per game.
We reported Pascal Meynard as playing this card yesterday, but it seems like the Spaniard Antonio del Moral Leon has been using Pact to great effect as well. As of Round 13, he has 27 points ( 1st place currently sits at 33).
Whether it ends up making Top 8 or not, this card is moving. When I checked an hour ago, TCGPlayer had copies under $6. When I checked just now, that was no longer true. It seems to have passed the $6 mark. Remember, this is a mythic rare. $6 is very reasonable, even if it's not ultimately a 4-of. It's closer to $7 than $6 at the time of writing.
On MTGO, we've seen the sell price rise from 3 tix on the 28th to over 6 tix today, August 1st. It was not 6 tix even an hour ago!
It could be that this card doesn't make an appearance in the top 8. It could be that this is a poor buy-in at $6 / 6 tix. I think I'd rather be on the right side of history here, and despite the fact that the best time to buy this was, surprise! before the Pro Tour, I think the next best time is probably now. There -is- risk involved here; this isn't a slam-dunk until it makes Top 8, but I think it's a fine place to deploy some capital if you're looking for ways to spend money. Pro Tour Top 8s aren't always indicative of what's actually great in the format, as it's heavily skewed towards those who 3-0'd their drafts as well as crushed Constructed. One way or another, this card seems like it's here to stay. |
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I'm proud of the work that our coverage team did this past weekend. We hit many of the big stories. We educated Insiders to be wary of a few things (early market movement, 3-0 drafters skating by with middling Constructed lists, etc) and we delivered a lot of great finance tips to our readers. If you're an Insider, let us know how we did on coverage! If you're not an Insider yet, well, here's how to fix that (featuring our 111% guarantee).
As the one writing the Alerts this weekend, I will say that I was VERY cautious talking about the Mono Red decks. As you saw, I was hesitant to scream “BUY” on Abbot and Firecraft, and even suggested to take profits. HOWEVER, I also bracketed all of those statements with the “unless it dominates” caveat, because if Mono Red hadn’t smoked the Pro Tour Top 8, along with representing a huge percentage of the field, these cards wouldn’t have seen nearly the increases they did.
I think I could have done a better job explaining the upside of these cards in the case that they dominated to this degree, but again, I am generally a conservative alert-sender and try not to sensationalize. I hope I made it clear, at least, what cards were being played and what the metagame looked like.
I have only been on this site for a little while but the problem I have is all the “alerts” and “recommendations” always have the “unless it dominates” caveat or the “wait and see”. Were paying money for you guys to tell us “BUY THIS CARD NOW” to be able to make money on a card. I can wait and see if it dominates. that is the same thing the other 2564374 people are doing. I read a huge article and at the end it says maybe think of buying temple of malady….Maybe? if it does well in a tournament? I guess?
If you are looking for safe, guaranteed financial advice in any market really, I have some bad news for you. It doesn’t exist! The best QS can do is provide information that we don’t have (like what they see going on at the PT) or explain the processes or philosophies behind how they invest in cards.
There is no easy, surefire way to make money anywhere. This is guaranteed by the fundamental dynamics that drive economics.
Sorry Tim, I suppose you could just start buying every card that gets mentioned on the forum. The rest of us are paying money for the information to make our own decisions, not to have someone hold our hands and treat us like second graders. If you want a hand holding, I’m sure someone will be willing to do it for FAR more than this small monthly subscription.
And if it’s just 100% accuracy you are looking for, well, most of us don’t believe in the accuracy of fortune tellers or palm readers. But if you find one that is 100% accurate 100% of the time, please let us all know.
A plsaiengly rational answer. Good to hear from you.
Many people don’t … Many people don’t see clear pictures at the conscious level. Perhaps you can imagine, sense or simply become aware of what the pictures are. It’s like imagining a canoe, you don’t have to see it clearly in your mind to know what one looks like, at some level the picture is there in your mind, and the place where the canoe is located and the colour of it.. even if you don’t clearly see it, all that information is available. Let me know if that helps. Was this answer helpful?
Im not saying i need hand holding or 100% accuracy. My point is that saying something like. hangarback walker has already gone up a lot. it might go up more but it also might go down is not very helpful advice.