Welcome to another edition of the Box Report. Every set release, I like to look at data and get an idea of the distribution of cards. Today I will break down the spread of each box and provide some firsthand information about the value of Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW).

My goal here is for everyone to have some fun looking at what the possibilities are for opening boxes of this set. We’re all excited about Expeditions too and that makes the pack opening even more fun. Let’s dive right in and see how it turned out.

The first thing I want to do is to list out the cards worth paying attention to in this set. Most likely these are all known quantities, but more knowledge about the set is never a bad thing. Before I was doing these breakdowns I've found a few cards would slip under my radar.

After analyzing my boxes for their value, I walk away with a more thorough picture of the financial layout of each set---I encourage others to follow this same process for these reasons.

Let me first point out that with Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and OGW, I have a special notification set at my store to remind me that the price ceiling for rares in these sets are lower than normal and it takes an amazing card to break the mold. Expeditions have forced most of the cards in these sets downward.

My typical procedure is to buy a targeted number of playsets and once that number is reached, lower the buy price. During OGW preorders, I lost sight of this principle with my Call the Gatewatch purchases. Even though I was able to get them at really good numbers, the card will have to exceed even my highest expectations in order to reach the necessary price point for me to make money on that investment.

I still believe that is possible, but it will take quite a long time and I could have easily invested my money in the plethora of Modern specs that are providing a much higher return. This is something we should all keep in mind in the future.

Additionally, rares at the bottom of my list above, the ones that range from $1.50 to $3, are in the danger zone. I made my calculations with their current TCG mid price, but by the time this article goes live, they may have already dropped to bulk. Cards like Eldrazi Mimic and Captain's Claws I really like and think have room to grow, while others seem destined for the bulk box like Vile Redeemer and Overwhelming Denial.

Finally, there some uncommons of note worth grabbing from the draft leftovers. Stormchaser Mage seems like an obviously great uncommon, but Reflector Mage and Warping Wail are noteworthy as well. In addition to the uncommons that already hold value, I think Spatial Contortion will rise in value once it starts seeing play across Standard and possibly in Modern.

Foils of these are great pickups as well, especially Stormchaser Mage. After looking at the prices of these foil versions, my assessment was definitely correct. I was surprised that Stormchaser was already double digits and the others were creeping towards double digits as well.

Box 1

Foil Eldrazi Obligator
Foil Island

Kozilek's Return
Thought-Knot Seer
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
World Breaker
Hissing Quagmire
Needle Spires
Sea Gate Wreckage
Corrupted Crossroads
Inverter of Truth
Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Bearer of Silence
Captain's Claws
Call the Gatewatch
Eldrazi Mimic

Total: $85

Box 2

Foil Swamp
Foil Corrupted Crossroads
Foil Natural State

Thought-Knot Seer
Chandra, Flamecaller
Matter Reshaper
Oath of Nissa
Reality Smasher
Eldrazi Displacer
Wandering Fumarole
Hissing Quagmire
Needle Spires
Corrupted Crossroads
Sylvan Advocate
Sphinx of the Final Word
Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Jori En, Ruin Diver
Bearer of Silence
Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim
Crush of Tentacles
Oath of Gideon
Eldrazi Mimic

Total: $90

Box 3

Foil Plains
Foil Hedron Allignment

Kozilek, the Great Distortion
Thought-Knot Seer
Chandra, Flamecaller
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
Oath of Nissa
Reality Smasher
Wandering Fumarole
Sea Gate Wreckage
Sylvan Advocate
Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Jori En, Ruin Diver
Bearer of Silence
Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim
General Tazri
Captain's Claws
Oath of Gideon
Call the Gatewatch

Total: $105

Box 4

Foil Matter Reshaper
Foil Mountain

Kozilek's Return
Thought-Knot Seer
Linvala, the Preserver
Matter Reshaper
Reality Smasher
World Breaker
Eldrazi Displacer
Mirrorpool
Sea Gate Wreckage
2 Corrupted Crossroads
Inverter of Truth
Sylvan Advocate
Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Bearer of Silence
Crush of Tentacles
Captain's Claws
Oath of Gideon
Call the Gatewatch
Eldrazi Mimic
Vile Redeemer

Total: $119

Box 5

Twilight Mire
Foil Crush of Tentacles
Foil Captain's Claws
Foil Plains
Foil Reckless Bushwhacker

Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
Thought-Knot Seer
Chandra, Flamecaller
Matter Reshaper
Oath of Nissa
2 Reality Smasher
Eldrazi Displacer
2 Wandering Fumarole
Sea Gate Wreckage
Sylvan Advocate
Sphinx of the Final Word
Jori En, Ruin Diver
Bearer of Silence
Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim
Crush of Tentacles
General Tazri
Captain's Claws
Oath of Gideon
Call the Gatewatch
Eldrazi Mimic

Total: $199

Box 6

Foil Eldrazi Mimic
Foil Forest
Foil Stormchaster Mage

Kozilek's Return
Kozilek, the Great Distortion
Thought-Knot Seer
Linvala, the Preserver
Matter Reshaper
Oath of Nissa
Eldrazi Displacer
Mirrorpool
Hissing Quagmire
Needle Spires
Sea Gate Wreckage
Corrupted Crossroads
Sylvan Advocate
Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Jori En, Ruin Diver
Call the Gatewatch
Eldrazi Mimic
Vile Redeemer

Total: $141

As you can see, with OGW, we are getting a decent value from our purchase, with a box average of $123.50.

Most of you know this already, but with this block it has been significantly better to buy cases instead of smaller quantities. This principle still holds true. By committing to less than a sealed case, you are voluntarily risking not opening an Expedition. At minimum you risk losing out on $50-$200. You could have pulled multiple Expeditions too, and in that case, you could be losing more money.

Our readership here at Quiet Speculation understands things like this quite well, but I think it’s our responsibility to spread the word. Not only will this help your friends, but also your local game store. People should be teaming up to buy their case if they can’t afford it on their own. By doing it this way, I think it increases your odds of opening an Expedition. There will always be those players that open an Expedition from a random Walmart pack or in a draft, but give yourself the best shot to get your own Expeditions.

Taking a look at the set, most of the mythics are hits in terms of recouping your investment (The recent jump by Worldbreaker helps with this as well.) There are many rares that will give you some value as well. Thought-Knot Seer is at the top of this list, but there are many other good pulls as well.

Finally, I think this set gives you more chances to open money with your foil slot. Certainly foil rares and mythics will typically be worth a bit, and the foil lands are still bringing in $4 - $9 each, but with OGW we have more chances to get money foils. Because OGW has Wastes and amazing uncommons like Stormchaser Mage, your chances to open a foil worth money have increased. All of these aspects go into making money from your investment.

My boxes ranged from $85 in value all the way up to $199. That’s certainly a huge range, but the point is that the more boxes you open, the higher your average will be. For individual players, I think the sweet spot is a case. If you want to go bigger though and create your own virtual store through TCG Player, eBay, or another outlet, try purchasing multiple cases.

When I was selling singles on my own, I opened two cases of each set. That was enough to all but ensure a minimum of a playset of each mythic and two playsets of each rare. There will be variance of course, but those minimums are a pretty safe base to work from.

For most sets, I have an opportunity to get ahold of extra prerelease kits. This time around, I wanted to include some data about those as well. I’ll let you know ahead of time, they’re a great investment. If you have the opportunity to purchase these boxes, seize on it quickly.

Due to lower-than-usual numbers at my events, I was able to open 18 of these boxes. With each box containing four packs of OGW that gives us a total of 72 packs, or the equivalent of two boxes. Here’s what I opened.

Prerelease Kits

Ancient Tomb
Foil World Breaker
Foil Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim
Foil Needle Spires
Foil Drana's Chosen
Foil Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Foil Island
Foil Mountain
3 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
Thought-Knot Seer
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
4 Matter Reshaper
2 Oath of Nissa
3 World Breaker
2 Eldrazi Displacer
2 Mirrorpool
Needle Spires
5 Sea Gate Wreckage
2 Corrupted Crossroads
2 Sphinx of the Final Word
2 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Eldrazi Mimic
Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim
3 Crush of Tentacles
2 Captain's Claws
2 Call the Gatewatch
Eldrazi Mimic

Total: $345

If you noticed, each of the normal boxes had one foil rare. With these packs, we averaged double that. Taking a look at the mythic distribution, we had a higher number of mythics in the prerelease boxes as well. The prerelease packs had a total of 14 mythics which averages to seven per box, but the boxes of the set only averaged 4!

The average was also brought up because there was one kit with 5 mythics and one with 6! The other kits contained 2, 3, 3 & 4 each. This seems to be a higher-than-normal distribution. I’m wondering if other people have noted a higher percentage of mythics from this set as well, or if my case was an anomaly.

It has long been rumored that the prerelease product has a higher rate of mythics and desirable cards than the normal packs you can purchase upon release. I am working with a small sample size here, but my data certainly seems to indicate this is true. If we calculate the value of the prerelease kits equivalent to boxes, we would have an average of $172.5.

But wait, there’s more!

Prerelease Promos

Deepfathom Skulker
2 Dimensional Infiltrator
Drana's Chosen
Oath of Chandra
Tyrant of Valakut
Hissing Quagmire
Wandering Fumarole
Oath of Nissa
Stoneforge Masterwork
General Tazri
Linvala, the Preserver
Hedron Alignment
Eldrazi Obligator
2 Fall of the Titans

Total: $70

BFZ Valuables

4 Battle lands
2 Lumbering Falls
2 Ruinous Path
1 Painful Truths
2 Wasteland Strangler
1 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
1 Sire of Stagnation
Foil Scatter to the Winds
Foil Retreat to Coralhelm

Total: $64

You don’t only get packs of Oath in these prerelease boxes, you also get two packs of BFZ and a promo foil! That was another $134 in value. There’s no argument that these prerelease kits contain much profit within them. There is one downfall though.

With a theoretical few leftovers to pick from, stores tend to price these a bit higher. Some stores will have these priced at the same rate of their tournament entrance fee, while others will increase the price due to a low supply. I can only speak for myself here when I say I charged $30. We sold about a dozen of these kits at that price.

In the past before BFZ block we've been unable to move those prerelease kits, so a lot of the demand is stemming from the Expeditions. Just like with the packs, they help sell product.

Using that $30 per box for my calculations, it would cost you $540 before tax to acquire 18 of the prerelease kits. While they do contain great value, extra mythics, and a higher rate of foils, the total value of the cards I opened was only $479. So, at $30 if your goal is just to turn a profit, it seems not worth the investment. If, however, you were able to buy these at $25 or less per kit, you would be in great shape to profit from the investment.

Also keep in mind from these 18 kits I only opened one Expedition, as opposed to the two from BFZ prerelease kits. So that will result in pretty different returns, obviously.

~

I hope you found this endeavor intriguing and valuable. Use this information to gauge how much you want to invest in this set.

Just keep in mind the barrier to price I mentioned earlier as well. The value of cards in OGW will be dictated directly by how desirable the Expeditions are and how much product they prod people to open. The Expedition lottery is real and it sells packs.

Let me know how your pack opening went and what you learned from it in the comments.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force of the Gatewatch!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com