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Buckle up. This is going to be a long one...
The Pro Tour is over. Everybody is pumped up to play Magic. 50% of the community waits until after the PT to decide what to play. Not a terrible way to go, waiting to see what is good after the pros have a shot at it.
In today's article I'm going to go through every single card appearing in an 8-2 or better deck list that has financial value. I'll look at the price tag and tell you if it's "fact" or "fiction."
(Keep in mind that I'm writing this Sunday evening so prices may have jumped around a bit by the time it's published.)
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit ($1.85) - Hold
Anafenza has seen some fringe play in various white aggro decks but the majority of the value is derived from Modern Abzan Company builds. Tuck these away and hold them for a rainy day. At sub-$2 prices, pick them up.
Always Watching ($3.8) - Sell
Always Watching is a good card in Standard, don't get me wrong, but it has nowhere to go but down. Various Glorious Anthem-type cards are a dime a dozen and this one doesn't even pump tokens (which is typically the best thing an anthem can do)! The price is going to quickly creep down even if it is good in a Standard deck.
Anguished Unmaking ($4.1) - Sell
Vindicate, it is not... You don't need to look any further than Utter End for a comparable card. Anguished Unmaking will be junk city soon. Trade away!
Archangel Avacyn ($40) - Sell
The Pro Tour is over. There are five colors in Magic and more than just white will be playable in Standard. The card is great but it isn't the be-all and end-all many thought before. Capitalize on the buzz and get out while the getting is good. I expect to see the card settle into the $25-$30 price range.
Archangel of Tithes ($21) - Sell
For a minute everybody thought this card might be the answer to the format. It isn't. It's great in a couple of random decks and not the end of the world. Watch the price drop like a boulder. I want out of these ASAP.
Avacyn's Judgment ($0.75) - Keep
Can't really go much lower and madness could get better with the next set. I'd rather hold onto this card that duck out at less than a buck. There was a sweet Jeskai Control deck playing it at the PT that went 8-2.
Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim ($1.75) - Keep
I think about $2 is pretty fair for the card right now. I wouldn't hate trading it off or keeping it at this price depending on how good of a deal I'm getting. It's a great card for sure.
Bounding Krasis ($0.50) - Keep
Bant Company is the truth and some of these wacky Origins uncommons are difficult to track down. I could see Krasis reaching Silkwrap status.
Canopy Vista ($4.25) - Keep
The battle lands have proven to be the better ones in Standard. I think they are in the range where they should be---although they could tick up or down a little depending on what people need. Lands are currency, as always.
Caves of Koilos ($1.75) - Keep
If they go any lower they are in the dollar bin... B/W Eldrazi and Taxes is a deck in Modern. It just isn't a good time to sell these right now.
Chandra, Flamecaller ($28.00) - Sell
I had a hard time coming to a final decision on Chandra. Very powerful and great flavor. Chandra-form where she toasts Ulamog and Kozilek to death! Exactly the kind of card that I never short-invest on. In the long run, it will lose significant value but it could pop up in the short term. I'd avoid buying into this card and look to cash out extra copies now.
Cinder Glade ($4.75) - Keep
Arlinn Kord doesn't even have a deck yet! Lands are always good to keep.
Collected Company ($22.00) - Keep
It's the best strategy in Standard and Modern. You do the math on that... Snapcaster prices might be a stretch but not out of the realm of possibility for this card eventually.
Cryptolith Rite ($6.5) - Sell
The card may be playable but it isn't the type of card anybody is willing to pay seven bucks for. Danger, dips ahead.
Dark Petition ($6.5) - Sell
Everything I said about Cryptolith Rite applies here. There are too many of this card and not enough homes right now. The casual Commander appeal of both cards will keep them above $2 forever now.
Declaration in Stone ($16.00) - Sell
Remember what happened to $15 Hero's Downfall? Get your money and get out of this spec!
Dragonlord Atarka ($12.00) - Sell
It is a dragon. With that being said it doesn't really draw cards so it isn't great in Commander. I don't think this particular dragon is safe.
Dragonlord Ojutai ($14.00) - Sell
The card won't have a home when it rotates. Strike when the iron is hot or not at all.
Dragonlord Silumgar ($5.5) - Keep
At $5 I'm willing to take a chance on this dragon. It doesn't really feel like it can duck much lower for too long even post-rotation. Plus, the card is sweet.
Dragonmaster Outcast ($2.50) - Keep
You guys know this card used to be like $30 and impossible for stores to keep in stock, right? It isn't a sub-$3 card. Just read it.
Dromoka's Command ($3.9) - Keep
The card is good enough and in enough decks that I'll give it the benefit of the doubt to grow a little and hang on. Enchantments are really good in Standard too...
Drownyard Temple ($2.00) Keep
There is little chance that with more Innistrad sets to come the card gets worse. It is unique and awesome. A great card for Commander. I'm into picking these up right now and waiting for the future.
Duskwatch Recruiter ($2.5) - Keep
For the longest time I didn't even realize this card wasn't a rare! It is great in every way and super powerful. Good enough for Commander. Look out for foils. Card is absolutely a Silkwrap or Stoke the Flames type of uncommon.
Eldrazi Displacer ($3.5) - Keep
The card is an absolute delight to play with. It has already made waves in Modern and Legacy. It is a player in current Standard that people are basically splashing for. Don't miss the boat!
Evolutionary Leap ($0.75) - Keep
I think Leap is a sleeper right now. Also great in casual. It's just a really good card. Don't forget it will also have synergy with cards like Relentless Dead if that gets better next set.
Fall of the Titans ($0.75) - Keep
The card is better than it looks and it looks fine. Feels kind of Theros-y with the falling titans. Having proven itself alongside Pyromancer's Goggles and at less than $1, this one could see more demand as extra copies dry up.
Fortified Village ($3.00) - Keep
All of the Shadows lands are currently undervalued. They should rise up to about $5 at some point---assuming fetches are not in the next set or block!
Game Trail ($3.6) - Keep
Must. Not. Trade. Undervalued. Lands. For. Bottom. Value. Plz.
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar ($20.00) - Sell
You've had your day Gideon. White is great but not the only color in town. Prepare for a slow downward descent on this walker.
Goblin Dark-Dwellers ($2.75) - Keep
The card is great. I think it has Modern applications down the line in Jund and Control. It may have a bigger piece of Standard down the road. It's a powerful spell.
Hangarback Walker ($7.75) - Keep
I've already made so much money off this card but I think there is still more to be made. You've already missed the high-water mark by a lot but I think you could do a lot worse than to have this card in your collection. It is playable in every format and is just a great card in general. As it circles the drain and the prices slowly trickle down a little bit I'm looking to pick up a stash of the card.
Hissing Quagmire ($5.50) - Sell
Black-green is good and now people want the land for the deck. I'm happy to make my +$3 profit and trade them away at close to six dollars all day long.
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy ($75.00) - Sell
Jace has slowly been coming back down to earth. The card isn't nearly as good without fetches and Crackling Doom in the format. As more people start looking to sell and trade away Jace to buy into non-Jace decks the price is going to drop sharply. You've been warned.
Kalitas, Traitor to Ghet ($24) - Keep
I feel weird saying to hold onto an overpriced mythic creature but I think it is going to continue trending up. It is far and away the best card against the B/G Aristocrats deck and a fixture of the up-and-coming Languish-based control decks. It is a great card that is extremely well positioned in Standard. Plus, I hear the kids love to play midrange these days!
Knight of the White Orchid ($5) - Sell
The card is a fine playable rare but not nearly good or unique enough to warrant a price tag like this. Its going to come back down to earth soon. It isn't the mono-white format some people expected.
Kolaghan's Command ($15.00) - Keep
99% of the value comes from Modern. If it sees more play in Standard it can only help here.
Kozilek's Return ($6.5) - Keep
The card is going to be more of a player than people may have realized. With Chandra and red being so good Koz's Return is going to get the plays.
Kytheon, Hero of Akros ($16.00) - Sell
The card has very little play other than being the best Savannah Lions in Standard. (Thraben Inspector isn't a 2/1 and lives on a different planet from Savannah Lions---card is insane!). Anyways, when the wheels come off it'll be a quick crash.
Languish ($7.5) - Sell
Languish is such a textbook case. Finkel played it at the PT and people are rushing out to copy him. The price spikes. Anybody who still has Languish anywhere in their collection other than in a sleeved deck they are playing will have missed an opportunity to make a few bucks.
Liliana, Heretical Healer ($25.00) - Sell
I do not understand the price on this card. People realize this is a totally different card than Liliana of the Veil, right? Veil, Great. Healer, bad. Anyways, sell into the spike.
Linvala, the Preserver ($3.00) - Keep
A lot of the value from this card is casual angel appeal. That being said, the value is quite low and the card does see quite a bit of Standard sideboard play. I see value at some point.
Lumbering Falls ($2.50) - Keep
By far the best person land with Sylvan Advocate. Also, the card is in Bant Company. I see $5 bills on the horizon.
Matter Reshaper ($2.00) - Keep
It's the Eldrazi Kitchen Finks! Anything that has ever been compared to Kitchen Finks can't be less than $2. The card is absurdly awesome and just hasn't found the right home yet. What about Affinity?
Nahiri, the Harbinger ($12.00) - Keep
The card is much better than people thought initially. It turns out that never dying to damage is like an upside or something... Plus, red-white has at least two different decks (Eldrazi and Goggles) and both want this card.
Narset Transcendent ($10.00) - Keep
The format looks to be getting a little more controlling which means this card could start seeing some play in the near future. It was in some of the PT control decks. Way more likely that it goes up for a minute before starting to decline. For sure not a long-term hold card, but one that I think will have short-term gain before long-term loss.
Needle Spires ($1.30) - Keep
Red-white decks need lands too, right? Poor Needle Spires gets no love. People realize this card is a dual land that turns into a creature, right? Gee whiz.
Nissa, Vastwood Seer ($16.00) - Keep
You could do a lot worse than to pick up the card. It is very powerful and great value. I like it as a commander. Also, it is seeing a ton of play in Standard. I dare to say even more than Jace! Also, a fixture in Bant CoCo.
Nissa, Voice of Zendikar ($14.00) - Keep
I've just got a gut feeling that this 3cc planeswalker is better than it has performed in Constructed so far. It is powerful and I'm willing to give it another month or two before I start looking to unload.
Ob Nixilis Reignited ($8.00) - Keep
Firstly, I think the card has a way above-average chance of going up before it goes down in Standard. Secondly, do casual players enjoy planeswalker demons? Seems like a safe long-term investment card.
Ojutai's Command ($2.00) - Sell
It doesn't really have anywhere to go. It sits in that "better than bulk" limbo until it rotates. It's a fine cube card too. Nobody to sell this card to. It's too Spikey for Johnny or Timmy but it isn't Spikey enough that Spike wants to pay for it.
Pia and Kiran Nalaar ($3.5) - Keep
All the value is Modern-related. Just keep stocking up on them as their Standard shine starts to dim.
Port Town ($3.5) - Keep
This land cycle is too cheap right now. Pick up and hold on.
Prairie Stream ($4.5) - Keep
I think the battle lands have room to grow right now. They are better than people think. Also, there are not really other options...
Pyromancer's Goggles ($15.00) - Keep
I think these puppies are going to spike up even higher than they already have. Obviously, they will come down but there is more value to be had here. The card (alongside Chandra) is the reason red is good right now.
Radiant Flames ($0.50) - Keep
People know this card is a rare and not an uncommon, right? Can really only go up.
Reality Smasher ($3.50) - Keep
If people play 4x copies of a card in Legacy it is safe to hold onto that card for a while. Smasher is a great card and an Eldrazi for the flavor fans. It even says "smash" in the title...
Ruinous Path ($1.5) - Keep
Exactly the type of card that I like to get people to try and throw into a trade when I'm a buck or two behind. People tend to need these from time to time and they always feel too cheap to me. Good cards should have some value, right?
Sanctum of Ugin ($1.00) - Keep
Ramp is not dead. Ramp is back. People are going to want these and they will go up a little bit.
Seasons Past ($8.00) - Sell
I don't think this deck is as good as people think. Yes, it is a "cool" deck and Johnny Magic made Top 8 at the PT with, but I don't think the deck has much staying power. I also don't think this card can stay $8 beyond the hype.
Secure the Wastes ($12.00) - Sell
Good card with a high price tag. Probably not actually "good" or "played" enough to deserve this tag. I'd recommend moving off these as it is likely their high-water mark for all time.
Shambling Vent ($5.50) - Keep
The best of the new Zendikar creature lands. Shambling Vent is for sure a Modern-playable staple and a very good Standard card. I think this card will slowly pick up more and more steam.
Shrine of the Forsaken Gods ($1.00) - Keep
Everything I said about Sanctum of Ugin.
Sigarda, Heron's Grace ($3.50) - Keep
Constructed-playable mythic rare angel with massive casual appeal for $3.5? Sign me up!
Smoldering Marsh ($5.50) - Keep
When did the black-red duals suddenly become the new hotness? Isn't black-red supposed to be the worst? Oh well, lands are great. Try and hold onto them because they should bounce back soon.
Sorin, Grim Nemesis ($19.00) - Sell
Card is great! However, it is very difficult for a six-cost card to sustain this tag. It just isn't playable in enough decks! Even Elspeth, Sun's Champion (the format-defining card of Theros) couldn't stay $20+ forever and it was way better and more played than Sorin ever will be.
Sunken Hollow ($4.25) - Keep
Give me land, lots of land, lots of land.
Sylvan Advocate ($8.00) - Keep
I think we can get to $10 on this card. It is a great card. Cream rises to the top.
Thalia's Lieutenant ($5.25) - Sell
The Humans deck didn't perform as well as expected at the PT which means hype for buying up humans cards is going to lull a bit. Aggro cards don't tend to hit those high prices. Kind of a lose-lose situation on this card, so sell them off before people lose interest.
Thought-Knot Seer ($6.50) - Keep
The card is great and has lost a lot of steam after the Modern banning. TKS is still a big game in Modern and has been seeing play in decks ranging from Jund, to Tron, to Blue Control. Let's not forget that Eldrazi are still all the rage in Legacy. Too good to fail!
Tireless Tracker ($5.50) - Sell
There is nothing "wrong" with the card, I just think it is overpriced based on what it does. Feels like the kind of card that settles in the $2-$3 range.
Tragic Arrogance ($0.50) - Keep
Wow, seems really cheap on this card based on how good it is and how much play it sees! I'm going to look to pick some of these up. Also, a great Commander card.
Transgress the Mind ($1.00) - Keep
The card is absolutely grand in Standard. I think it is a Silkwrap-level uncommon for sure.
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger ($14.00) - Keep
The epitome of casual awesomeness meets Constructed playable. Emrakul was too much, but Ulamog is a fine card. It is reaching the low water point; hold on and pick up more!
Vryn Wingmare ($0.50) - Keep
Modern-playable rare staples shouldn't be worth only $0.50! A great card to target right now.
Wandering Fumarole ($3.50) - Keep
The card is Modern-playable and in a very popular color combination. At just over $3 I'm not willing to part with these because I think the upside far outweighs the risk.
Westvale Abbey ($10.00) - Sell
The card is overpriced based on how good it actually is and what it does. I get that it is a unique land that transforms but it isn't as great as people think in Standard. Feels more like a $6 card to me, which is where I see it settling down at.
World Breaker ($6.00) - Keep
World Breaker is a very good Magic card. It is Modern-playable. It is a Commander all-star. And Ramp is on the up and up in Standard. I think this card has room to grow and a lot of people who want to own it. I'm a firm keep here. Also, it is a mythic!
~
Well, that is all of the cards of note in any decklist that went 8-2 or better in Standard at the Pro Tour. Wow, that was a lot more work that I thought it was going to be! However, I think this is an interesting and useful project. Basically you have a near-exhaustive list of the cards people will want for the next week or so and an estimation on which are good to hold and which to let go.
Thanks this is really comprehensive and the format is really useful for decision making. I’ll have to go through it in detail once home.
A general theme is keeping cards dollar and below, and selling double digits. This strategy tends to work because of asymmetric upside downside.
As I posted in the forum I’d try to find any reasonably priced origins clash pack. They are worth coco alone and also contains a fetch and 2 of your hold recommendations
I’ve been looking for Origins Clash Packs myself. Has anyone had any luck finding them? If so, where?
Origins Cash Packs- Fixed
I disagree wholeheartedly with your sentiment on Baby Lilly. She isn’t LotV but how many cards really are? That said, she is pure value and is useful in an entirely different strategy than LotV. People are just starting to unlock/realize her potential. I think it will continue to trend up. Maybe I’m wrong, but debating specs is the point of this site now isn’t it? 🙂
Disclaimer: I only own one playset of regular copies and one playset of foils.