It’s possible that a Tier 3 deck could rise to Tier 2 or even Tier 1 status. It’s just not very common (most Tier 3 decks stay Tier 3 for a long time), and is not a great bet for a Grand Prix. For instance, Amulet Bloom started as Tier 3 before exploding into Tier 1 over 6-8 months. The best Tier 3 decks tend to make that shift because they are very good and don’t stay secret for long. But most Tier 3 decks never do, and that’s often not because they are hard to play, under the radar, or unpopular. It’s because they aren’t very good. Not all Tier 3 decks, mind you (there’s always another Amulet Bloom lurking out there), but the vast majority.

You’re right – WU is definitely tougher for us, because it relies more on uncounterable sweepers (ouch) and slamming down Planeswalkers (double ouch). However, it’s not as good as Jeskai is against the field (Gruul Zoo in particular is a problem, since a T4-5 Verdict can be too late to save them), and it doesn’t have access to the Nahiri flavor-of-the-month combo, so I wouldn’t expect to see much of it.

However, if you do, I’ve had the most success by changing up my keep/mull decisions (if I don’t have a T4 goldfish kill or counterspells, I’m probably shipping it), and playing my hand out a bit more like a tempo deck. Supreme Verdict might not be counterable, but Elspeth is, and if you can keep her off the table, you have a chance. It’s a very skill-intensive for sure, but I don’t feel it’s bad (at least, not bad the way Affinity and Elves can be).

Full disclosure I have played multiple decks that are currently listed in your tier 3 section. That said, however, isn’t this description not entirely correct? The tiers as I understand them are based upon the meta-game percentage which generally correlates to how good the deck is but by no means is the sole metric that should be used to determine the play-ability of any deck.

Its entirely possible that any of those tier 3 decks could be far over performing against the current metagame but the overall number of pilots is small enough to keep it under the radar.
Furthermore, with all the net-decking trends that seem to define modern in recent years it seems beyond reasonable to me that if even if a version was doing so well it wouldn’t actually gain popularity until it goes ‘viral’ thus convincing enough people to transition over and then change its status in the Tier system.

Aside from that I very much enjoyed your article though I’m interested to hear your thoughts on that.

-Josh G

That’s kind of what I was expecting you to recommend. Since I’m also packing 2 Stony Silences and a Ghostly Prison, I imagine cutting one of those 3 would be the more conservative swap. Thanks for the feedback!

Yep, Infect is blah. 7 slots, like Ryan committed at Indy, is excessive, but I would go with 4 just in case. I expect people are going to bring BG Infect to try and sneak under the Jeskai removal suite, which makes some of the removal significantly worse (Pact and Gut Shot don’t hit Crusader). I’d go some split of Darkblast and Darkness/Holy Day, and you can go up to 5 slots if needed. Do not pack fewer than 3 Leyline either.

Agree! Most players, especially as a function of the Day 1 field, are just going to bring whatever they are good with. Or what they think they are good with. Or what they own. Or what they enjoy! It’s going to be a very diverse metagame, which is why I suggest people just prepare for all the Tier 1 matchups even if the shares are more favorable to some than others.

That seems very risky. People are going to be playing Affinity this weekend and Kiki Chord is in an enviable position where it just needs to play that single slot to be prepared. If you were on something else with 3-4 slots, then you could shave one and be okay, but you really want that one bullet for the Tier 1 deck.

Yes! That’s how I felt when I first played the new Rhino versions of Pod. The deck was significantly better than the pre-Rhino versions and it felt very unfair.

I’d sell it after the GP weekend, when it inevitably spikes over $50. Price memory is big in Modern, and I don’t see her falling under $30-$35 for the foreseeable future. But great call on maindeck Needle! That’s a sweet Modern gem.

1. It feels sustainable. Death and Taxes (aka Eldrazi and Taxes or however you want to call it) is a mix between Tier 0 Eldrazi elements and Tier 2-3 D&T elements. Just from my own experience with both decks, it feels reasonable to believe the combination would land somewhere in permanent Tier 2 contention.

2. A large part of it is the MTGO bug. Paper Merfolk are at 4.3% and MTGO is at .8%, so even with the weighting formula, it’s a big hit for the fishes. I think another reason is the perception that Affinity is still huge, so players aren’t showing up to events with Merfolk. One reason to believe this is that Affinity is really getting hammered right now, which means players are prepared for it in sideboards and taking it seriously, thus indicating an overall expectation of Affinity. I think we’ll start seeing more Merfolk when people start realizing how Affinity is struggling.

3. I am not too surprised because big-mana decks have a history of being excellent in no-Wasteland Modern. There’s also a momentum thing here where players want their Eldrazi Winter investment to stay viable. Overall, I think Eldrazi is currently a bit over-represented and I expect it to stay where it is or fall.

On paper do not expect significant numbers decrease in their attendance
Their success rate may drop massively and their day 2 share may be small but you still have to fight through them day one

Especially at an event like a Grand Prix which at least 1/3 (about a thousand players) are only moderately competitive and just there for fun.

They will just bring their personal favorite regardless of the meta

Do not mistake day 2 success at scg events for an accurate display of day one deck density at a gran prix!

I was particularly unhappy with Tom Ross’s discussion about Nahiri in his Fact or Fiction contribution. It was hyperbolic, unsupported, extremely premature, and embodied everything about the worst kind of Modern ban mania. The other hype is equally problematic; it’s rare to find measured, critical, and nuanced opinions in Modern content these days.

Jund is #1 and almost all are main decking multiple kolaghans command.

The thopter sword is going to be around

And control is fairly dominant.

If you don’t have more than one artifact sideboard slot I would not cut it but if you have a few, shaving one off i think is fine

Jeskai isn’t the problem, Kira is still very good there and the old plan still works against them. Visions draws them about the same number of cards as the older cantrip heavy versions did so that matchup hasn’t changed. It’s straight UW that has been trouble because they usually have the full set of Verdicts and around here a few Wraths maindeck as well and follow that up with Elspeth. In that matchup you must respect their clock, unlike Jeskai, and the fact that they can and will just drop bomb after bomb and stick a win condition once you’ve run out of steam makes things very difficult. I’m not sure yet how to deal with that since trying to aggro them out before Verdict kills you is unlikely, but the attrition plan isn’t effective against Elspeth.

Meanwhile, I’m in that awkward place of having one copy of a card that just spiked beyond my budget: do I sell/trade it, give up hope of ever using it, and count my blessings for having at least gotten some value out of the deal? Or do I hold it, hope that it drops, and see if I can scrimp and save enough to get the multiples required for actually playing it? Ugh.

Agreed, also I often have to explain to people that tokens isn’t an aggro deck, there seems to be this idea that decks that play/create a lot of creatures must be aggressive. Tokens is inherently a midrange deck, and a meta deck. Additionally you can’t really pick it up and play it, it requires a lot of experience to be even decent with it. Too bad for me that the GPs this weekend are way too far for me to get to, otherwise I’d bring mine and see how it fares, states wasn’t horrible, missed prizes by one match, finished in the top 3rd of the field.