Jonthan,

Thanks for the support. Indeed things are shifting in the MTG finance world and it’s better to acknowledge it and adjust accordingly rather than ignore it. I’m really happy to see others are also experiencing similar trends – it reassures me I’m not the only one with this cautious view. I like your ideas of finding good long term holds and just waiting patiently…as long as we can dodge reprints that’s a great strategy. I recently picked up a few foil Temple Bells as I think this is another long-term hold worth grabbing and sitting on. These are about all I’m willing to buy nowadays (considering my position in Vintage/RL stuff is already where I want it to be).

Very true. Once a strategy becomes known, it’s not really a good strategy anymore. We need to find different ways to get ahead of the curve, and to me Standard is not it.

Stu,

Appreciate the comment! I think your point is: if you’re going to speculate on Standard, you need to know what cards will be good in the format before the PT. And this is the same sentiment that others are echoing. Clearly I did not do this, hence my failures. It’s a tough lesson learned and I hope others will learn from my mistakes going forward.

Sig

Tarkan,

Great points, and I agree with you completely. My struggle is twofold:

1) I don’t know Standard all that well, so I am not adept at pinpointing the right targets in advance without Twitter or the QS forums helping me out 🙂
2) I’m not that interested in Standard, so my desire to follow the format closely is low.

Thus my conclusion: this probably isn’t for me anymore. Maybe that’ll change over time. But given that we’re expecting a second baby in January, I suspect my time to follow a rapidly evolving Standard format will become less…not more.

Thanks for the build though, I’m really happy readers can see the opposite side of the coin because there is definitely some merit to your strategy!

Thanks,
Sig

Yeah, I’m definitely thinking the latest RL hype is passed now, and prices are going to settle down a bit. But you know it’s just temporary. Eventually something will trigger buyouts anew all over again…until the game dies down. But that may take a long time. No harm in taking profits while their juicy – I’ve been trimming my Old School stuff that I’m not actively using just for that reason.

Hi Sig,

Great work, as always. I do the QS cast here with Chaz, and I’d like to echo a few point states he made:

1. Timeliness – You’re absolutely correct: friday buys, in the current marketplace, can often be too late. If you do buy Friday, it needs to be quite early. However, if you’re following meta trends, and all the available information, you can lock your buys in by Thursday and be
ready to go.

2. Card evaluation- This is something you’re good at, and the better you are at identifying cards with a higher probability of format impact, the sooner you can buy in, and the better your odds of PT profits.

3. Outs- This is the most critical point. Buylists are getting tighter and tighter with how they respond to spikes. Marvel did not even move until some point late saturday, or Sunday, and that $11-12 window shut quickly. Buylisting is still a viable option for specs quantities above two playsets, especially with credit bumps that can be quite lucrative.

That’s said, your general sentiment that traditional, full-weekend speculation is nearly impossible, is true. You must have your specs locked in earlier and be ready to sell faster.

However – if you’re ahead of the pack, you can adeptly identify high-impact cards, and you’re willing to dedicate the weekend time, the PT can still be quite fruitful.

We knew going in Energy and Vehicles were the big concepts to be pushed, much like Delirium and Emerge were before. That gave you the Tower/Pummeler/Copter spikes. Also people need to just realize what a good card is, aka Gearhulk. The other spikes were due to the majority of players (casuals) seeing a couple decks do well by a popular person and buying in.

Some other cards briefly went up like Hydra, but in reality that card is very medium compared to what the rest of the format is doing.

I honestly think speculation has 0 to do with PT spikes though. What is there to speculate on? The Pro Tour already happened and we saw what cards were doing well, thus players buying in and causing cards to go up. I know when I see most of these terrible cards go up I am trying to race to the bottom to unload them since I know where they will end up.

Honestly this might all be ramblings but I swear there is a good point or 2 in there some where.

Yes, there is the issue of the reprints in MM 2017 to deal with…that’s legit.
But it’s hard to believe the spikes on old cards are the real price…the buy outs have inflated prices, and who will really want to pay $500 for a box of Ice Age? Or how many will actually want All Hallow’s Eve for $200?

There’s probably money to be made in flipping some old RL during these RL hyped times, but it will have to cool off eventually because I don’t think the demand is really there for a lot of the newly bought-out RL.

Chaz,

Thanks for the thoughtful comment, I really appreciate it. I respect your view 100%. In fact, I hope folks at this site have more experiences like the one you describe rather than the one I had. It justifies subscriptions to sites like these ;-).

But in all seriousness, I used to have so much more success with PT’s. It seemed like I was ill-prepared for this one. I should have kept out of it altogether. I think that may be the biggest takeaway – if you want to engage with PT speculation, you need to commit time and resources up front so that you can be fully prepared throughout the weekend. PT speculation isn’t something that can be improvised any longer…at least not by me. I’ll think about this more for next time, where I hope to be better prepared and have better luck.

Thanks again as always for the kind words!!
Sig

Sparrow,

Thanks for the input! I love your suggestion of buying into weakness rather than strength. In a healthy growing economy this is often the optimal play. I do think there will come a time when Modern will be the best format to put money to work.

However…

With Modern Master 2017 less than a year away, I have to imagine there will be no good catalyst for growth in the near-term. Why buy into something and run the risk of a reprint in a few months? That’s certainly enough to keep me away for the time being. Once MM17 is fully spoiled, stuff that dodges reprint will certainly climb higher. But is that a bet you want to make right now?

As for older stuff getting too overheated, I think you’re right. Everyone flocks to old stuff, but now these Old School cards have grown very expensive and offer much less upside in the near future. Perhaps selling old stuff IS the right play here. Even so, I don’t think I want to put the money to work elsewhere until there’s more known about reprint sets on the horizon.

Terrific comment, I really appreciate it. I need to think on this FEAR component some more!
Sig

Before replying, looks like All Hallow’s Eve had another large price increase. Saw you posted that some weeks back. So, good job!

In terms of Pro Tour actions, I think you’re using a personal take and using the facts to manipulate one specific viewpoint. There were a few actionable and profitable cards coming out of this Pro Tour.

Was it as lucrative or volatile as others? Maybe not, I don’t have the data in front of me. But, folks could have (and did in IRC chat) bought into Dynavolt Tower for as low as .49c in the early rounds of Constructed on Friday. Spending $8 and some change on a 4 playsets to then turn around and sell each playset for $8 is extremely good – even after fees/shipping.

That’s not even counting Torrential Gearhulk which could have been had in the $8-10 and was easily selling for $25 a piece.

I only make this post because I’m a fellow writer, which also happened to cover the PT for the site (and plenty of PTs before this). If it wasn’t worth it, then trust me I wouldn’t be spending a majority of the past 3 days covering it and making recommendations to Insiders.

Your point on Supply is correct, we aren’t at peak supply. The problem is, we’re not at peak supply *right now* which means with the PT being almost immediately after release, it’s not surprising we saw drastic price movement. If we look at previous PT, all these prices have nowhere to go but down from here. So, that’s when supply will definitely have it’s impact going forward.

I understand where you’re coming from, and you have a specific investment strategy. PT is not for everyone, it requires you to essentially be glued to a screen for a considerable amount of time over the course of the event. But, I have to disagree in a big way to your overarching argument for PT not being lucrative. They are, but the timing (and time investment) is literally everything.

Anyways – always enjoy your articles Sig.

With so much finance gurus pushing old cards these days, I think much of the old stuff being bought is being bought by greater fools.