Comments on: All Is Glass: Modern’s Fragility https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 16 May 2017 05:41:19 +0000 hourly 1 By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128334 Tue, 16 May 2017 05:41:19 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128334 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

As I said, I was massively tilted at the time. Still not sure if it was right or not, but I do know that the shells I’ve tried were bad at making it work.

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By: Drew Brost https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128333 Mon, 15 May 2017 11:36:19 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128333 Thanks for the piece, man. Solid writing and analysis.

I think this is great, and I’ve been thinking about a single copy mainboard for a while in a jund-style deck. (With more in the side.) I think somewhere between 1-4 is right, but I don’t see the reason to commit to the whole set right away.

One thought on terminology:
It seems like your definition is really looking at what I would call “worst-case fail state” – the vulnerability to the strongest type of disruption the deck can come up against. For Death’s Shadow, that’s an extraction (backed by removal and a clock); for traditional Tron, that’s land destruction. For different decks, it’s going to look different.

Your article then focuses on vulnerability to extractions, which is totally reasonable. That’s your whole goal – to explore SE as a mainboard option and it’s potency in the current meta. I dig it. This leaves out some other possible ways decks fail, but the real claim is that extraction effects are very strong right now against a swath of decks due to the linearity of threats presented. Seems on point. You could do (and did) a similar analysis of ghost quarter, but it’s less devastating or useless so it’s less of a controversial deckbuilding choice.

Idk why I’m doing this analysis. Mostly, people were getting up in arms about “you not being right about the meta” and it felt silly. You’ve got a good breakdown.

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By: SOU Organization https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128332 Thu, 11 May 2017 22:22:53 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128332 In reply to Seth Monroe Shores.

Seth, I disagree on several points.
1. I don’t think this article is “bashing” the meta or anything. David is simply observing the decrease in robustness as of late, which is not necessarily a problem.
2. Gitaxian Probe added a lot to Infect’s robustness, because the info allowed them to play around answers and the decreased deck size made it more likely for them to find a new threat when one did get answered.
3. Ad Nauseum is different than Infect because Infect has more ways to win the game, like normal damage with Hierarch or a variety of Infect creatures, whereas Ad Nauseum can’t win without resolving its namesake spell. Also, the decks operate of a totally different axis, with Infect much easier to interact with.
4. Modern will certainly get more powerful over time, but I think it will always be significantly different than Legacy, due to the presence of extremely degenerate cards that won’t be reprinted.
5. Modern can certainly become robust again.

Overall, especially considering your comment on Modern becoming like Legacy, your comment comes across as an advertisement for Frontier, which doesn’t seem attractive right now because of how diverse and fun Modern is and how small the Frontier card pool is.

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By: Benjamin Alan Mohr https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128331 Thu, 11 May 2017 19:21:05 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128331 In reply to Ben Lunsford.

Totally agree, this is a great article!

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128330 Thu, 11 May 2017 18:07:37 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128330 While I do agree that Shadow is more fragile than Jund, extrapolating it to the whole metagame feels like a stretch. Abzan Company becoming more of a combo-roulette sort of deck is a response to the fact that Knightfall has a superior fair game, and was thus eclipsing the strategy. Eldrazi Tron is also definitely more robust that Tron – the number of games I’ve taken from Tron with a couple of Seas effects speaks volumes to that fact, and Eldrazi Tron already has built-in tech (such as Mind Stone and basic Wastes) to beat Blood Moon. All in all, I agreed with some of the points made as part of the groundwork, but the conclusion seems off.

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By: Tommy Hoff Hansen https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128329 Wed, 10 May 2017 16:18:19 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128329 I’ve been playing with surgical extraction for years, and in most designs I have at least 2 of them in maindeck.

Surgical extraction can really cripple a deck provided your opponent somehow get an important card into the graveyard.

The two downsides to the card is that it demands that you memorize what to remove from every single decklist in use, otherwise your damage will be to random.

Second, when there tend to be a lot of rogue decks you won’t be able to figure out what to hit before game 1 is over, and then their sideboard may be your downfall.

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By: Ian McAbee https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128328 Wed, 10 May 2017 00:49:40 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128328 In reply to Matt Owens.

Play RW prison with blood moon, to punish non robust decks

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By: Ben Lunsford https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128327 Tue, 09 May 2017 21:13:16 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128327 I just want to say that I love the writing here. Both style and vocabulary.

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By: Matt Owens https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128326 Tue, 09 May 2017 19:34:51 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128326 So how do we adjust? Rebuild Infect as a slower, more robust GB and some death shadows to be cute? Find a way to play more Blood Moon? Play a Naya Valukut with four Chalice? Do we have to get weird to have that consistency or just play the new default decks? Control seems sweet, but only UW or espero seem robust enough compared to the others. A rebuild of Grixis to be Midrange or New style of control? Old Naya Coco seems okay, but way too damn expensive.

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By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128325 Tue, 09 May 2017 18:53:01 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128325 In reply to Beryl Lasko.

Against dredge the greatest priority are threats, specifically Prized Amalgam followed by Bloodghast. The deck is built around overwhelmingly fast starts with those cards and the rest of the deck is uninspiring at best.

If you are against a robust fair deck then Extraction is not very good, try to remove something that would wreck you. Against the land centric decks you want to hit either Valakut or a Tron piece. Combo decks require you to answer then extract their critical piece.

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By: Seth Monroe Shores https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128324 Tue, 09 May 2017 18:14:19 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128324 Hello David,
You seem to be bashing non-robust linear combo decks, yet you talk about infect, which is also a non-robust linear combo deck, killing on turn 3 with infect to keep the format robust. So my question is now that infect has fallen to the wayside, due to a non-robust card being banned, gitaxian probe, what makes ad nauseam different, which kills on average a turn later?

Also if the “non-robust” decks are so fragile, why are the “robust” decks not adapting answers for these decks? (this answers your question)

As time goes on modern will more and more resemble legacy due to more cards being added to the pool.
EX: storm gaining baral to become relevant again.
EX: Eldrazi being printed allowing for a plethora of decks to be brewed.

Wizards doesn’t have the time or money to fine tune modern to bring it back to the “robust” state you are referring to (as much as I wish they did). For this reason and many others is why frontier was created.

Best wishes on your grand prix trials, Seth

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By: Jordan Self https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128323 Tue, 09 May 2017 18:06:29 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128323 My testing partner has been on lantern for over a year now. His maindeck extractions have been devastating to every new deck idea I’ve brought to the table. I’ve been noticing the uptick of extraction’s power over this time. Building other decks to have the same maindeck capability isn’t an insane venture.

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By: Beryl Lasko https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/glass-moderns-fragility/#comment-2128322 Tue, 09 May 2017 17:38:19 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=14300#comment-2128322 I really enjoyed this article! After coming out of an abysmal performance at GP Richmond this last weekend, I’m seeing the method to your madness. From the top decks in the current meta, which cards would be the best target with Surgical? I keep running into Dredge, but I have no idea what I’d target. Thanks!

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