Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Hey, Insiders!
Ixalan Standard is upon us, and I wanted to share some information I've accumulated from my testing over the course of a few days. Keep in mind there was less time due to the faster release on MTGO, nevertheless I was still able to play enough games to start noticing some early trends of this format (which is really fun):
Dinosaurs
I'll just come out and say this first - Dinosaurs will likely be real. I was really skeptical, but there's going to be a version that will make it. At least early on in this meta, this deck can quickly power out some scary threats (and not because they're actually Dinosaurs). The combination of Carnage Tyrant, Regisaur Alpha, and Ripjaw Raptor has proven to be quite potent. My vote is for either BG and/or GR - it all comes down to if the cost reduction creatures are worthwhile.
Otepec Huntmaster has looked really good alongside Carnage Tyrant - and RG also gains access to Samut, the Tested. That's right, Samut - it seems like a gimmick, until the double striking Carnage Tyrant is attacking and there's basically nothing you can do about it.
Other Notes
- Ramunap Red/Snek (Winding Constrictor) Decks/Energy will still be the keepers of this format early on. We'll categorize these as "Tier 0" as we head into this Standard format, because they're still clearly the decks to beat and have lost virtually nothing.
- Outside of Dinosaurs, Pirates seems like the best chance to be viable. The issue is there's actually many different ways to build this archetype - it's a good problem to have but until then we'll have to see how the archetype settles. I've seen some recurring trends of Jace, Cunning Castaway and Ruin Raider.
- Speaking of Ruin Raider - it really is the best Dark Confidant imitator and can be utilized in many different archetypes. I saw it a fair deal in plain aggressive decks, and not mutually exclusive to Pirates.
- Vampires seems close, but more excited that Legion's Landing showed up a fair deal - looked great alongside Oketra's Monument. Flipped effortlessly some games.
- Merfolk - Unless I'm extremely wrong on this - the archtype is borderline a draft deck. Weakest of the Ixalan tribes by far. There was a UG list floating around by an SCG writer on reddit:spikes that I tried out, and was eaten in testing (ouch).
- Jace, Cunning Castaway seemed solid overall. Also seemed to slot into a variety of decks from Pirates, to Blue based aggro decks. Also goes without saying it crewed Heart of Kiran quite well and seemed strong together.
- I didn't see any Tezzeret the Schemer based decks - but still hold out a chance for it to see play alongside cards like Herald of Anguish. I would think trying to go all-in Herald would have the best chance of competing with this early Ixalan meta.
- Only Flip-Enchantment I saw was Legion's Landing. So far it seems it has the most applications out of the cycle, but the cycle is still overall very good. It may take some time to see the others, or we could still very well see them in early results. This is a hard one to call.
These cards kept showing up in a variety of decks. Ixalan Standard will revolve around the decks to beat that I mentioned, and Ripjaw Raptor/Carnage Tyrant. The long and short of the situation is - there's no efficient way to remove those two cards. Ripjaw is also the best roadblock for Hazoret the Fervent/Energy because at the very least it replaces itself. Deathgorge Scavenger played key roles in Constrictor lists and mostly any decks running Green. Early and efficient lifegain was important and looked strong every time it was cast.
At the same time, the good cards from previous formats are still good - early on in the meta, anyway. There may be a chance for the other forgotten cards (Herald/Tezzeret) to shine, but largely these were the cards that were still very much being cast. In a format where Lightning Strike has made a return, there will be an emphasis on creatures with more than 3 Toughness - and that's where Glorybringer really shines. Beyond that - Hour of Devastation will take care of everything besides Carnage Tyrant, but folks have trend directly to Fumigate as the format's prime removal spell for that very reason.
That's about all I have from my notes. I would say stick to the known quantities at the moment and leave the "speculation" picks to speculation. Granted some are inexpensive enough to be worthwhile either way, but I've seen enough to feel confident in my notes. Early Ixalan Standard will be "Can I beat Ripjaw Raptor and those other 3 decks." There will certainly be enough time to look at off-beat cards if they make an early splash, but right now those cards seem fairly mediocre to stock-up on without any valid claims of testing or taking notes on other games via spectating.
Hope this information is helpful, and eagerly awaiting this Standard format!
I feel as if you underestimated oeptec huntmaster. That card alongside any Dino is very dangerous. Casting huntmaster into ripjaw raptor or alpha on turn 3 will lead to quite a few blowouts.
It appears I did, yeah. >.<
Good call on Deathgorge Scavenger, I somehow missed the synergy with Winding Constrictor. Doomfall and Trial of Ambition along with discard are probably the most reliable answers to Carnage Tyrant, though inconsistent in their own right. There seem to be plenty of answers to Ripjaw Raptor: Unlicensed Disintegration, Walk the Plank, Skywhaler’s Shot, and Fatal Push if you can trigger revolt (which doesn’t seem all that hard if there’s a bunch of treasure tokens running around). Have you done any testing with Rowdy Crew? Seems like it could replace Insolent Neonate in the Jeskai GPG deck.
Keep in mind that Deathgorge Scavenger doesn’t receive any counters – but Until end of turn.
Yeah, plenty of answers for Ripjaw – but it still needs to be in a player’s gameplan for Ixalan Standard. I have not tried Rowdy Crew, nor really seen it yet.
Hey Chaz,
Great write up. These playtesting things help quite a bit, you made a great call on Sylvan Advocate a while back. Anyways, few questions for you. Do you think Temur energy will also go in Tier 0? It looks like they werent losing anything either. Do the following cards look like they will be present in the new meta rhonas, Gideon, heart of kiran, Liliana Deaths Majesty, torrential gearhulk? I have large MTGO positions in these and want to make sure they are actually performing well. Let me know if any of them aren’t.
I did a bit of research recently, and found that 5 drops(creatures especially) really don’t show up that fall pro tour very much. In years past fall pro tour is the time to be aggressive, but something about this year looks different. There is great early removal, and a lot of really powerful 5 drops in this format, so I think will break the mold. But this would definitely be a deviation from the norm.