https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpcalgary2019/final-standings

For a city of 1.5 million that is not close to other large urban areas, that seems like a plausible number, even a laudable number. I think that it justifies accepting the results as a reasonable snapshot of the regional metagame.

I realize that comparing Calgary to Toronto is like comparing Denver to New York, but the shifts in percentage from Feb to Mar are
CALG TOR Change
Phoenix 17.65 8.14 +9.51
Tron 8.50 4.20 +4.30
Rock 5.23 3.73
Humans 5.23 2.80 +2.43
Shadow 6.54 4.33 +2.21
Amulet 3.27 1.77
Scales 3.27 1.77
Dredge 6.54 5.09 +1.45
UW Cntl 5.88 4.45 +1.43
Spirits 2.6 4.20 -1.59
Burn 9.15 11.45 -2.30

Whether the double digit numbers for Phoenix are enduring or brief, it is certainly too soon to conclude that they are fading. The Calgary percentages are double what turned out in Toronto six weeks earlier.

Burn falling 2.3% is quite likely regression towards the mean, but I suspect the fall-off of Spirits is linked to the rise of Phoenix.

Tron, GBx, and Shadow have decent matchups with Phoenix, so their numbers improving is consistent with metagame shifts.

I would have thought that Humans share would fall in response to Phoenix, so it’s increase seems anomalous, but perhaps Meddling Mage and Reflector Mage are better than I thought.

I, myself, don’t even begin to think about possible bans until a deck dominates for 6 months straight. At the end of Dec in Portland, all Phoenix decks combined comprised only 7%. Izzet Phoenix was at 4.94%. The current diversity argues that many archetypes are perceived as viable and that the format is still robust. Surges in popularity are a normal part of Modern. Phoenix’s share is historically very high, but it takes time for player’s not only to invent the correct tech for their deck, but also to learn how to play effectively against a strong deck. Phoenix is definitely a strong deck, but it has weaknesses. Like Shadow, and Humans, and Spirits, it will become well-understood, there will be fewer and fewer free wins and opponent errors, and it will take its place as just another top tier deck.

Ambiguous phrasing, but I that’s what he meant. Clarified!

I don’t think that’s accurate. Players were more likely to hit a rogue deck than any *specific* established deck, but established decks still made up ~75% of the meta.