The Modern Metagame has entered its final form. There is little doubt that bans are inbound. The question is which top decks will be hit, and which survive.
David Ernenwein
David has been playing Magic since Odyssey block. A dedicated Spike, he's been grinding tournaments for over a decade, including a Pro Tour appearance. A Modern specialist who dabbles in Legacy, his writing is focused on metagame analysis and deck evolution.
The Modern RCQ season is ending, and its conclusions conflict with the online results. Boros Energy is defining the metagame, but it might not for much longer.
As expected, Energy decks moved to the top of Modern’s metagame in September. However, players are beginning to adapt and adjust their decks to compensate.
Nadu richly deserved to be banned, and the August metagame data proves it. However, Grief is a more speculative ban but will cause a stronger metagame shift.
Nadu Breakfast is confirmed as a Tier 1 deck. Sorta. Magic Online never behaves as expected. However, the metagame’s direction is quite clear. August 26 looms.
Modern Horizons 3 has released and the metagame has dramatically shifted. There’s a large problem looming over Modern, but the metagame is looking healthy.
With Modern Horizons 3 near, the Modern metagame is holding its breath. Players are choosing to play established decks and coast to the metagame’s finish.
Modern’s metagame has fallen back on old favorites. With Modern Horizons 3 coming soon, players are holding their breath for the new shakeup. The data is clear.
Violent Outburst is banned, and the Modern metagame is adjusting. However, from the data it’s clear that players have little idea which direction it’s heading.
I haven’t had to do that many metagame updates for February, it being the month where bans tend to happen. That wasn’t the case this month, though I suspect that the data will add fuel to the banning call fires. I understand, but I’d caution everyone to consider the context before jumping to conclusions. February’s data is defined by the Regional Championships and that created a localized warp.
There is a clear metagame warp in January’s data. However, it appears to be driven less by actual metagame forces than Magic Online being Magic Online.
Time to close the books on 2023. It’s been quite a year. We saw two of the biggest sustained warps in Modern’s history, banned and restricted policy reverted to an earlier form, and we had the first unban since 2019.
With Fury and Up the Beanstalk banned, Modern is set to dramatically change. The data clearly shows how necessary the bans were, though the impact is uncertain.
