New month, new metagame update. It is the way. And I’d like to kick this one off by tempering expectations. The near-perpetual spoiler season we now inhabit did spit out another set. However, Adventures in the Forgotten Realms is no Modern Horizons 2, and did not have that much impact on Modern. The resulting July metagame […]

It’s summer. There’s not much happening on the Magic front. And I’ve got summer things to do. So I’m giving in and doing a list article. At least the algorithm will be satisfied. And I still have my professional pride preventing me from doing it in a nonanalytical way. The Online Metagame An explainer/disclaimer before I […]

It’s the first Tuesday of the month, so it’s time for the metagame update. Yes, even in the middle of spoiler season. Because, serious question, when aren’t we in spoiler season? This year’s release schedule is ridiculous; I could spend all my time just discussing cards and never run out of gas. I’ve got to draw […]

The latest banlist announcement did a number on Modern’s top decks, decimating the Uro piles which week and again would claim top of the heap as well as the new bullies on the block, cascade-powered decks abusing the latest Tibalt cards. In order to solve for these displays of power, though, Wizards took an unconventional […]

Having finished the appetizer, it’s time for the main course: the data from my Hypergenesis test. This is the hard, quantitative data, and I’ve done statistics on them to determine the validity of the test. For the stats people out there, I do a multiple significance test, but will report the z-test here. There’s never […]

It’s been quite a while, but your eyes do not deceive: this is another full banlist test series! It’s been almost two years since I did one of these. Not for lack of trying, mind you, but there are only so many viable test subjects in the first place, and I’ve done a few already. […]

Everything eventually ends. As the year wraps up, it’s time for me to bring my Modern Horizons 2 speculation to a close. I need to clear space for the upcoming Kaldheim spoiler season. And hopefully, the return of paper Magic; I’ve spent considerable time and energy trying to figure out how I’m going to incorporate […]

Alright, no more delays. All the data is finally in, and so it’s time to do November’s Metagame Update. So far, the metagame has generally been dynamic. The top deck hasn’t been consistent between months, though Rakdos Prowess and its descendant Scourge Shadow have been consistently Tier 1 since I started doing these again. Will […]

Ah, spoiler season. The time when I don’t have to stretch myself doing statistical work. Just looking at the new cards, doing some basic analysis, and speculating about whether there’s a place in Modern for them. Simple and low-pressure, just what this year’s called for. Then, something had to come in a ruin everything: a […]

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite recent bannings, the targeted decks are rising up again, reinventing themselves in novel ways. Axing Once Upon a Time from the format heralded an imminent paradigm shift for Amulet Titan, an enduring archetype that had redesigned itself around the free cantrip so drastically as […]

Well that was fast. It’s only been two months since Oko, Thief of Crowns was banned. It’s pretty rare for Wizards to issue Modern bans in consecutive announcements, except for during emergencies like Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis’s reign of terror. So I wasn’t actually expecting anything to happen in Modern. However, last Thursday, that changed; I […]

Another event, another set of data, another reexamination of the Modern metagame. As the time of actual Modern Opens and Grand Prix approaches, Modern players are increasingly seeking to find the new rules for the format and whatever edge they can. I’ll be tracking those changes as the data comes in, looking for developments and […]

The metagame is beginning to take form, and now is the time for players to start adapting. This could mean adjusting which decks they play, how they play them, or what cards they play. Now is naturally a time for experimentation, but no such transitional period is free from common mistakes. Whether it’s misunderstanding how […]