Quiet Speculation https://www.quietspeculation.com Play More, Win More, Pay Less Mon, 09 Dec 2024 22:13:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.quietspeculation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/favicon.png Quiet Speculation https://www.quietspeculation.com 32 32 November ’24 Metagame Update: Energy Accumulates https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/12/november-24-metagame-update-energy-accumulates/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/12/november-24-metagame-update-energy-accumulates/#respond Mon, 09 Dec 2024 22:13:54 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132507

The Modern Metagame has entered its final form. There is little doubt that bans are inbound. The question is which top decks will be hit, and which survive.

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October ’24 Metagame Update: Energetic Evolution https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/11/october-24-metagame-update-energetic-evolution/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/11/october-24-metagame-update-energetic-evolution/#respond Tue, 05 Nov 2024 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132486

The Modern RCQ season is ending, and its conclusions conflict with the online results. Boros Energy is defining the metagame, but it might not for much longer.

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September ’24 Metagame Update: Energized Frog https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/10/september-24-metagame-update-energized-frog/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/10/september-24-metagame-update-energized-frog/#respond Wed, 09 Oct 2024 10:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132424

As expected, Energy decks moved to the top of Modern's metagame in September. However, players are beginning to adapt and adjust their decks to compensate.

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August ’24 Metagame Update: Wings Clipped https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/08/august-24-metagame-update-wings-clipped/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/08/august-24-metagame-update-wings-clipped/#respond Fri, 30 Aug 2024 16:18:31 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132380

Nadu richly deserved to be banned, and the August metagame data proves it. However, Grief is a more speculative ban but will cause a stronger metagame shift.

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July ’24 Metagame Update: Bird’s the Word https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/08/july-24-metagame-update-birds-the-word/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/08/july-24-metagame-update-birds-the-word/#respond Sat, 10 Aug 2024 20:57:46 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132356

Nadu Breakfast is confirmed as a Tier 1 deck. Sorta. Magic Online never behaves as expected. However, the metagame's direction is quite clear. August 26 looms.

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June ’24 Metagame Update: The New Horizon https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/07/june-24-metagame-update-the-new-horizon/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/07/june-24-metagame-update-the-new-horizon/#respond Fri, 12 Jul 2024 18:47:29 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132278

Modern Horizons 3 has released and the metagame has dramatically shifted. There's a large problem looming over Modern, but the metagame is looking healthy.

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May ’24 Metagame Update: Waiting for Horizons https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/06/may-24-metagame-update-waiting-for-horizons/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/06/may-24-metagame-update-waiting-for-horizons/#respond Thu, 06 Jun 2024 11:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132236

With Modern Horizons 3 near, the Modern metagame is holding its breath. Players are choosing to play established decks and coast to the metagame's finish.

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April ’24 Metagame Update: Holding Pattern https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/05/april-24-metagame-update-holding-pattern/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/05/april-24-metagame-update-holding-pattern/#respond Thu, 09 May 2024 18:01:57 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132222

Modern's metagame has fallen back on old favorites. With Modern Horizons 3 coming soon, players are holding their breath for the new shakeup. The data is clear.

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March ’24 Metagame Update: The Cascade Crash https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/04/march-24-metagame-update-the-cascade-crash/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/04/march-24-metagame-update-the-cascade-crash/#comments Fri, 05 Apr 2024 14:02:28 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132170

Violent Outburst is banned, and the Modern metagame is adjusting. However, from the data it's clear that players have little idea which direction it's heading.

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February ’24 Metagame Update: Championship Changes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/03/february-24-metagame-update-championship-changes/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/03/february-24-metagame-update-championship-changes/#respond Wed, 06 Mar 2024 19:01:38 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132149

I haven't had to do that many metagame updates for February, it being the month where bans tend to happen. That wasn't the case this month, though I suspect that the data will add fuel to the banning call fires. I understand, but I'd caution everyone to consider the context before jumping to conclusions. February's data is defined by the Regional Championships and that created a localized warp.

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January ’24 Metagame Update: Convergent Consensus https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/02/january-24-metagame-update-convergent-consensus/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/02/january-24-metagame-update-convergent-consensus/#respond Wed, 07 Feb 2024 13:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132090

There is a clear metagame warp in January's data. However, it appears to be driven less by actual metagame forces than Magic Online being Magic Online.

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December ’23 Metagame Update: Holiday Hangover https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/01/december-23-metagame-update-holiday-hangover/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2024/01/december-23-metagame-update-holiday-hangover/#comments Thu, 04 Jan 2024 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132059

Time to close the books on 2023. It's been quite a year. We saw two of the biggest sustained warps in Modern's history, banned and restricted policy reverted to an earlier form, and we had the first unban since 2019.

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November ’23 Metagame Update: A New World https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/12/november-23-metagame-update-a-new-world/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/12/november-23-metagame-update-a-new-world/#respond Thu, 07 Dec 2023 21:34:59 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=132020

With Fury and Up the Beanstalk banned, Modern is set to dramatically change. The data clearly shows how necessary the bans were, though the impact is uncertain.

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October ’23 Metagame Update: It Got Worse https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/11/october-23-metagame-update-it-got-worse/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/11/october-23-metagame-update-it-got-worse/#respond Thu, 09 Nov 2023 22:53:49 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=131986

Modern continues to be dominated to an extreme degree by Scam. There has been innovation in the lower tiers, but it appears that the status quo will persist.

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September ’23 Modern Metagame Update: Getting Cheated https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/10/september-23-modern-metagame-update-getting-cheated/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/10/september-23-modern-metagame-update-getting-cheated/#comments Tue, 03 Oct 2023 21:22:17 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=131949

In September, Modern's metagame developed along the same lines as it did in August. This is not a good thing, and it is getting much worse. David has the data.

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August ’23 Modern Metagame Update: The Unban’s Effect https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/09/august-23-modern-metagame-update-the-unbans-effect/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/09/august-23-modern-metagame-update-the-unbans-effect/#comments Thu, 07 Sep 2023 18:24:31 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=131910

August was... unexpected. Wizards threw everyone off with their Ban Day decisions. Bans were expected in Standard (based on Wizards' own statements) and hoped for in multiple other formats. Instead, Modern and Legacy saw unbans. The impact this has had will be on display in this metagame update.

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July ’23 Metagame Update: The Pro Tour Effect https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/08/july-23-metagame-update-the-pro-tour-effect/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/08/july-23-metagame-update-the-pro-tour-effect/#comments Thu, 03 Aug 2023 11:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=131878

The Pro Tour strongly reflects the impact of Tales of Middle Earth. Modern's metagame is warping around the set to an alarming degree. The data is quite clear.

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I Put All Modern’s Best Cards into One Deck and It’s Sick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/07/i-put-all-moderns-best-cards-into-one-deck-and-its-sick/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/07/i-put-all-moderns-best-cards-into-one-deck-and-its-sick/#respond Fri, 14 Jul 2023 14:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=130643

Modern has finally achieved critical mass... of legends! Mox Amber holds together a five-color pile that can grind out anything with its top-down engine-focus.

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A Beginner’s Guide to Looping: The Bath Song in LTR https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/07/a-beginners-guide-to-looping-the-bath-song-in-ltr/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/07/a-beginners-guide-to-looping-the-bath-song-in-ltr/#respond Mon, 10 Jul 2023 14:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=131648

This week Rob rekindles his love for old-school control as he analyzes looping in LTR. Find out how to build the deck that might be the best in the format.

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The Best Color, the Worst Color and Having a Plan in LTR Limited https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/07/the-best-color-the-worst-color-and-having-a-plan-in-ltr-limited/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2023/07/the-best-color-the-worst-color-and-having-a-plan-in-ltr-limited/#respond Fri, 07 Jul 2023 14:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=131563

We know black is powerful, but when are we supposed to go green in LTR? Rob talks about the differences in the colors and what green can offer you.

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